With the 2025 NHL Draft done and the Rangers standing pat with their roster and picks, the attention is shifting to free agency. Vlad Gavrikov seems to be a foregone conclusion to be coming to the Rangers, but most of the headlines are on the potential Will Cuylle offer sheet. Mostly pushed by Larry Brooks and now picked up by national media, the Will Cuylle offer sheet drama will only come to an end when the Rangers get him under contract.
On the Cuylle contract
1. Larry Brooks is right: The Rangers have the potential to finally buck the trend of senseless bridge deals for key forwards. Every single forward has received a bridge deal when it behooved the Rangers to lock them into long term deals. This was mostly necessitated by a stagnant cap and some bad contracts, but now with some cap space and a seemingly blank slate, the Rangers have an opportunity to end the madness.
2. Evolving-Hockey has Cuylle’s most likely contracts at 3 years, $3.2 million (43%) and 2 years, $2.9 million (30%). The most likely long-term deal is 6 years at $4.4 million (12%), which would be an absolute steal for the Rangers given his expected increased role next season. That would take him through his age-29 season.
That is a shade under Tom Wilson’s prior 6 year deal that came with a $5.1 million cap hit, and that came following a 14-21-35 season, well under Cuylle’s 20-25-45 this past year. It also came with a much lower cap ceiling, so getting Cuylle at under $5 million on a long term deal would be a steal.
3. Aside from the Will Cuylle offer sheet conundrum, the Rangers simply lack the cap space to get this done right now. Especially if they plan on signing Vlad Gavrikov. There isn’t enough cap space, even if they do trade K’Andre Miller. Let’s assume Cuylle gets $5 million and Gavrikov $8 million. That’s $13 million of their current $15.6 million in cap space, per CapWages. That’s $2.6 million left, and more like $1.7 million left after you add Gabe Perreault back to the lineup.
That’s $1.7 million to, assuming this happens, add a 12F, 6D, 13F, and 7D. The math isn’t mathing. This is where the Will Cuylle offer sheet talk is coming from.
4. Remember – trading K’Andre Miller saves them $0 in immediate cap space since he is not signed.
The Will Cuylle offer sheet risk is overstated, but real
5. The Will Cuylle offer sheet talk is mostly coming from the math. The Rangers need cap space to make a long term deal work, and they don’t really have it if they want to sign Vlad Gavrikov. Other teams know this. But it takes two to tango, and there has been no word about whether Cuylle wants to sign an offer sheet.
6. Also remember: A Will Cuylle offer sheet, or any offer sheet mind you, has its cap hit calculated over 5 years, not over the length of the contract. Signing Cuylle to a 7 year, $4.5 million contract ($31.5 million total) may carry a $4.5 million cap hit for each year, but for offer sheets it carries a $6.3 million cap hit ($31.5 million over 5 years).
7. It does appear that teams may be hesitant about a Will Cuylle offer sheet, or an offer sheet in general, given Gavin McKenna next year. Anything over $4.68 million annually requires a first round pick as compensation, and some teams appear unwilling to sacrifice that right now, just in case. This really isn’t a problem for contenders, but how many true contenders are there that also have their 2026 first rounder?
Currently only 18 other teams have their own first round pick next season: Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, LA, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, Islanders, Philly, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Utah, Winnipeg.
Of those teams, only NJD, LA, and Winnipeg are playoff locks. Minnesota, St. Louis, and Calgary are on the cusp, but are not locks by any stretch. If a Will Cuylle offer sheet gets into that first round pick territory, then only three teams will be realistically in as the rest won’t want to sacrifice a potential lottery pick at McKenna.
8. But this is important: Operating under the assumption all three of the Devils, LA, and Winnipeg are in on a Will Cuylle offer sheet, and they go into first round pick territory, they are going to the top end of that 1st/3rd round pick compensation range–$7 million–to ensure the Rangers don’t match.
Winnipeg can probably be eliminated here. Though they have the cap space now ($22 million), a Will Cuylle offer sheet at $7 million drops them to $15 million to re-sign Gabe Vilardi, Dylan Samberg, Morgan Barron, and possibly Rasmus Kupari (RFA), and Mason Appleton (UFA). That’s not enough space unless someone signs a very team friendly deal.
That leaves the Devils and the Kings as realistic options in the 1st/3rd round pick category. Does Cuylle value living in Newark? If not, then it’s just LA in this range.
What if he signs an offer sheet?
9. If there is a Will Cuylle offer sheet, then it’s likely going to be under that $4.68 million threshold, where the compensation is only a 2nd round pick. In that range, 21 teams have their own 2nd round picks, but we can eliminate teams that either need cap space or don’t have the cap space: Dallas, Florida, Vegas, Vancouver, Montreal, and Tampa. Edmonton can be eliminated too since re-signing Connor McDavid is their priority.
That leaves 14 teams that can realistically meet the requirements for a Will Cuylle offer sheet, assuming it’s under $4.68 million: Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, LA, Nashville, Devils, Flyers, Penguins, Sharks, Seattle, and Utah. How many of those are destinations that put him directly into the top-six, in the playoff hunt, and would be enticing for him to actually sign?
10. But let’s say Cuylle signs an offer sheet that comes with second round pick compensation. Drury is matching, no questions asked. Even if it’s just one year, he’s matching. The math will work itself out later since all teams can go 10% over the cap ceiling until the season starts.
At that point, maybe Chris Drury gets saved from himself and he can’t hold onto Carson Soucy.
