Photo: KSL Sports
The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers will meet in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, which will get underway in Game 1 at Amerant Bank Arena on Saturday night (8 PM ET, ABC, ESPN+). Florida took both regular-season games vs. Edmonton by a combined score of 10-4, though the teams have not seen one another since December 18. Florida, who returns to the Final after falling in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights last June, has yet to win a Stanley Cup while Edmonton, who is making their first fourth-round appearance since losing in Game 7 to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006, has not won since 1990.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Edmonton
- 49-27-6 regular season (second in Pacific Division, fifth in Western Conference)
- Defeated
- Los Angeles Kings in five games
- Vancouver Canucks in seven
- Dallas Stars in six
Florida
- 52-24-6 regular season (first in Atlantic Division, third in Eastern Conference)
- Beat
- Tampa Bay Lightning in five
- Boston Bruins in six
- New York Rangers in six
REGULAR-SEASON LEADERS:
FLA
- RW Sam Reinhart (57 goals, 94 points)
- LW Matthew Tkachuk (62 assists, 88 points)
- C Aleksander Barkov (1.10 points-per-game)
- D Brandon Montour (23:27 average TOI/game)
- G Sergei Bobrovsky (36 wins)
EDM
- LW Zach Hyman (54 goals)
- C Leon Draisaitl (41 goals, 106 points)
- C Connor McDavid (100 assists, 132 points)
- D Evan Bouchard (23:00 TOI/game)
- G Stuart Skinner (36 wins)
POSTSEASON LEADERS:
FLA
- Tkachuk (14 assists, 19 points)
- LW Carter Verhaeghe (nine goals, 17 points)
- Barkov (11 assists, 17 points)
- Montour (23:23 average TOI/game)
- Bobrovsky (.908 save percentage)
EDM
- Hyman (14 goals)
- Draisaitl (10 goals, 28 points)
- McDavid (26 assists, 31 points)
- Bouchard (21 assists, 27 points, 24:33 TOI/game)
- C Ryan Nugent Hopkins (20 points)
- Skinner (.897 save percentage)
Analysis: Edmonton has four of the top-seven scorers in the postseason and Hyman and Draisaitl are only two of three players in the tournament to hit double-digits in goals (Dallas C Wyatt Johnston). Containing Edmonton’s big guns will be critical for Florida since they have plenty of players that can change the game, though Florida has the deeper team. However, the Oilers’ offense will face Florida’s toughest test yet against a group whose average of 2.29 goals-against per game is the fewest of any team to make it to the second round and .882 penalty-killing rate ranks second.
Edmonton needs Skinner to pick right up from where he left off in the third round, when he posted a .922 save percentage and 1.91 goals-against average, including a 33-save performance in the team’s 2-1 series-clinching win where the Oilers were outshot 34-10. It was not too long ago when Edmonton sat Skinner for two games in the second round, where he recorded an .833 save percentage and 3.17 goals-against average against Vancouver. Florida had seven players with at least 10 points, averaged 3.24 goals-per-game, and scored at a .233 efficiency on the power play through the first three rounds, so Skinner must be at the top of his game.
While Florida’s penalty kill is top notch, they likely cannot afford to be undisciplined against Edmonton, whose .373 power-play efficiency is at least .1 higher than any team in the postseason other than the Colorado Avalanche. Draisaitl (six), Hyman (five), Nugent-Hopkins (four), and McDavid (two) all have multiple power-play goals while McDavid and Draisaitl (14 each), Bouchard (12), and Nugent-Hopkins (nine) round out the top four in power-play points league-wide. Edmonton also leads the postseason with 39 five-on-five goals meaning that Florida needs to commit to the defensive structure that has worked for them all season long even more so in the Stanley Cup Final.
Florida has excelled at activating their blueline in the offense but may need even more despite five of their six defensemen finding the scoresheet this postseason with Gustav Forsling (4-7-11) and Montour (3-6-9) leading the way. That starts with Ekblad, who was held to just four goals and 18 points in 51 regular-season games before getting limited to five assists through the first three rounds. While Bouchard has at least 20 more points than any other Oilers defensemen, all of Edmonton’s blueliners have found the scoresheet and Ekholm (four) and Ceci (two) have done so multiple times. Against a star-studded Oilers team, Florida needs to scrape any kind of production they can get and it starts with getting more from the backend.
Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Florida: -130, Edmonton: +110
Prediction: Florida in 6
By Harrison Brown
