Photo: Empire Sports Media
The 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs is now down to four teams as the Eastern Conference Final gets underway on Wednesday night (8 PM ET, ESPN, ESPN+). This NHL season’s third round features a couple of premier matchups and one team that has yet to win the Stanley Cup. NoVa Caps previews both the Eastern and Western Conference Finals:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Metropolitan #1 New York Rangers vs. Atlantic #1 Florida Panthers
Regular-season leaders:
FLA
- RW Sam Reinhart (57 goals, 94 points)
- LW Matthew Tkachuk (62 assists, 88 points)
- C Aleksander Barkov (1.10 points-per-game)
- D Brandon Montour (23:27 average TOI/game)
- G Sergei Bobrovsky (36 wins)
NYR
- LW Artemi Panarin (49 goals, 71 assists, 120 points)
- C Vincent Trocheck (25 goals, 52 assists, 77 points)
- D Adam Fox (23:26 average TOI/game)
- G Igor Shesterkin (36 wins)
Postseason leaders:
FLA
- Tkachuk (10 assists, 14 points)
- LW Carter Verhaeghe (six goals, 11 points)
- Montour (23:13 average TOI/game)
- Bobrovsky (.902 save percentage)
NYR
- Trocheck (six goals, 14 points)
- Fox (23:24 average TOI/game)
- C Mika Zibanejad (11 assists, 14 points)
- LW Chris Kreider (seven goals)
- Shesterkin (.923 save percentage)
Analysis: Goaltending is going to be critical for Florida as the teams are very close on the blueline but Bobrovsky has not been as good as he was during the regular season, when he posted a .915 save percentage and 2.37 goals-against average in 58 games. Shesterkin has improved upon his regular season (.913 save percentage, 2.58 goals-against average in 55) as his save percentage is the best among goaltenders left in the postseason and his 2.40 goals-against average ranks sixth. Florida has allowed an average of 24.1 shots-per-game over the postseason (best) but will need Bobrovsky to find another level against a deep and dynamic Rangers team.
Further to that, shutting down the other teams’ stars will be key for both teams during the Eastern Conference Final. Trocheck, Zibanejad, Panarin (4-7-11 in 10 games), Kreider (10 points), and left-wing Alexis Lafreniere (4-6-10) have all had incredible postseasons for New York. Meanwhile, Tkachuk, Barkov (5-8-13 in 11), Verhaghe, and Reinhart (5-4-9) are all rolling for Florida. The Rangers have allowed an average of 32.5 shots-per-game, which is not going to work against a more dangerous offense than what they saw against the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes in the first two rounds. Florida has shot at a .1074 rate (third).
The special teams battle is also tight as New York enters the third round with the second-best power play (.314) and penalty kill (.895). However, Florida is not too far behind as their .22 power play efficiency is good but the worst among the four teams still standing and .861 penalty-killing rate is right behind New York. While Florida’s special teams have been good, they might have to be even better vs. the Rangers, which have found some magic this spring, especially on the man advantage with both teams so close everywhere.
With Florida’s blueline not only stout defensively but able to step up into the offense (Montour: 3-5-8, Gustav Forsling: 2-5-7, Oliver Ekman-Larsson: 1-3-4 in 11, Aaron Ekblad: 0-4-4), New York’s defensive corps need to contribute there as well. While all six Rangers defensemen to suit up this postseason have at least a point, none have more than Ekman-Larsson and Ekblad and just two have one goal. Both teams may need to button up defensively, but New York will need to find a way to activate their blueline more in the offense.
Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Florida: -135, New York: +115
Prediction: Florida in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central #1 Dallas Stars vs. Pacific #2 Edmonton Oilers
Regular-season leaders:
DAL
- C Wyatt Johnston (32 goals)
- C Roope Hintz (30 goals)
- LW Jason Robertson (51 assists, 80 points)
- D Miro Heiskanen (24:32 average TOI/game)
- G Jake Oettinger (35 wins)
EDM
- LW Zach Hyman (54 goals)
- C Leon Draisaitl (41 goals, 106 points)
- C Connor McDavid (100 assists, 132 points)
- D Evan Bouchard (23:00 TOI/game)
- G Stuart Skinner (36 wins)
Postseason leaders:
DAL
- Johnston (seven goals, 11 points)
- Robertson (nine assists, 12 points)
- Heiskanen (eight assists, 13 points, 28:01 average TOI/game)
- Oettinger (.918 save percentage)
EDM
- Hyman (11 goals)
- Draisaitl (eight goals, 24 points)
- McDavid (19 assists, 21 points)
- Bouchard (15 assists, 20 points, 24:19 TOI/game)
- G Calvin Pickard (.915 save percentage)
Analysis: Edmonton has gotten to this point despite having an NHL-worst (yes, that includes all 16 teams to qualify for the postseason) .8889 save percentage at five-on-five. Skinner lost the No. 1 job before starting the final two games of the team’s second-round series against the Vancouver Canucks and got away with posting a .906 save percentage in those pair of contests. In 10 postseason outings, the 25-year-old has earned an .881 save percentage against a Los Angeles Kings team that looked out of place in the first round and Vancouver, who were missing their starting goaltender for the entires series and one of their top goal-scorers for Game 7. That will not cut it against Dallas, who had nine players post more than five points in the first two rounds.
While Edmonton has come this far with an obvious Achilles heal, so has Dallas as their .692 penalty-killing rate is the worst among the four teams left. Their performance with a man down is a complete 180 from the regular season, when they finished eighth with an .82 efficiency. The Stars must regain their form on the penalty kill against an Oilers group clicking at an NHL-best .375 rate on the power play and has four players with at least seven power-play points (Draisaitl: 12, McDavid: 11, Bouchard: eight, C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: seven). Dallas averages the second-fewest penalty minutes-per-game (5:13) in the postseason, and they have played six more games than the league leaders (Vegas Golden Knights) in that category. Edmonton also has a league-leading .914 penalty-killing efficiency but Dallas has the best power play (.29) of any opponent that the Oilers have faced thus far.
Similar to New York, Dallas must find a way to active their defensemen in the offensive rush as Heiskanen has at least 10 more points than any other Stars blueliner and Ryan Suter and Esa Lindell (one each) are the only others to find the back of the net. Meanwhile, Edmonton has four defensemen with at least as many points as any Dallas defensemen besides Heiskanen and all six of their blueliners to appear this postseason have tallied at least a point. Though, Edmonton could use more from Darnell Nurse, who has had a disappointing postseason (two assists, -10 rating, .4188 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage) after scoring 10 goals, 32 points, and a .5382 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage in 81 regular-season games, against a deep and balanced Dallas group.
Both teams have had success limiting their opponents to this point as Edmonton has given up an average of 24.5 shots-per-game (third) while Dallas has held Vegas and the Colorado Avalanche to an average of 27.5 (seventh). As each blueline is going against a high-octane offense, sticking to that defensive structure is going to be crucial to winning this series for both sides. It may be even more important for Edmonton, whose 2.75 goals-against per game is the league average but needs to improve at this stage, given their shaky goaltending.
Betting Odds (BetMGM) – Edmonton: +105, Dallas: -125
Prediction: Dallas in 7
By Harrison Brown
