This NBA season is shaping up to be the best West playoff race we’ve seen in a long time.
The West has traditionally been the better conference and the competition has been extremely intense as a result. What we’re looking at now in the final week of the regular season, though, might top anything we’ve ever seen.
As of Monday morning, the Denver Nuggets sit fourth at 47-32. Behind them are the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Memphis Grizzlies all tied at 46-32. That’s half-a-game separating fourth through eighth, with each of those teams still eligible for a 50-win season.
We haven’t mentioned the Los Angeles Lakers in third, and they’re only 1.5 games up on Denver at 48-30.
According to NBA data, this is the first time since 1983-84 that teams ranked 4-8 in a conference are within a half-game of each other 78-plus games into a season.
This is also just the second time since 1983-84 that teams ranked 3-8 in a conference are within two games of each other this late into the season. The previous occasion was 2017-18.
That year, the Portland Trail Blazers finished third with a 49-33 record. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz,and New Orleans Pelicans finished fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively, with a 48-34 record. They were followed by the San Antonio Spurs and Timberwolves in seventh and eighth at 47-35, and then the Nuggets at 46-36.
But how will it all play out this year?
That’s what we’re going to take a look at:
Lakers Won’t Have It Easy
At first glance, one would think the Lakers are safe. Their next three games, though, present arguably the toughest remaining schedule, especially.
First up are a Thunder team they just smacked by 27 in Oklahoma City. You can bet the West’s top seed will be looking for payback and it’s extremely rare for a road team to take both ends of a two-game set against the same team.
Then, on the second night of a back-to-back, Luka Doncic will make his first return to Dallas since getting traded. How will the emotion of the night play out? We’ve seen Doncic use bulletin board material to great effect before, but this is an extremely unique circumstance. Oh, and Anthony Davis being healthy makes the Mavericks more difficult to contend with.
The Houston Rockets have picked up consecutive impressive victories against the Thunder and Warriors, and they’ll be looking for revenge themselves after the Lakers defeated them on Mar. 31.
If those three contests don’t go right, their final game of the season against the Portland Trail Blazers could be a must-win situation to avoid the Play-In Tournament.
With three of their final four games coming on the road, the disparity between the Lakers’ home (30-10) and road record (18-20) is worth noting as well.
Prediction: Lakers finish 2-2 to end the season 50-32.
Nuggets Have Reason To Worry
This team was as high as the second seed and held home-court advantage for most of the season. Now, with Jamal Murray having missed five straight games, it could all fall apart.
Losers of four straight, each of the Nuggets’ three remaining games present a legitimate challenge. They should win at least one of the final three, but anything more than that will take a commendable effort.
Nikola Jokic has done nothing but impress during another MVP-worthy campaign, but injuries and depth may have Denver sink all the way to eighth come April 13.
After all the back and forth in the MVP debate between Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, don’t rule out a battle between their teams in the first round.
Prediction: Nuggets finish 1-2 to end the season 48-34.
Clippers’ Time To Peak
The Clippers have won four straight and 14 of their last 17 games. Kawhi Leonard just won West Player Of The Week. Day by day, this team is looking like an opponent no one wants to see in the first round.
With San Antonio and Houston as part of a back-to-back set, expect Leonard to sit a very winnable Spurs game but be available against the Rockets. The Sacramento Kings present another winnable game at full strength but the Warriors on the final day of the season should be a doozy.
In fact, don’t be surprised if both teams are tied record-wise heading into that clash with huge ramifications standings-wise.
Prediction: Clippers finish 3-1 to end the season 49-33.
Warriors Will Fancy Homecourt Advantage
The Warriors have been absolutely tremendous since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. They’re 21-6 since Feb. 8, including 20-3 when both Butler and Stephen Curry play.
The Phoenix Suns are good at home, but still without Kevin Durant. The only really difficult game on tap comes against the Clippers to finish the season. They will have home-court advantage for that (and the Clippers are only 18-21 on the road), so don’t be surprised if the Warriors run the table to close out here.
Prediction: Warriors finish 4-0 to finish the season 50-32.
Wolves Have 50-Win Season In Sight, Too
Minnesota has the easiest schedule remaining of all these teams. The Milwaukee Bucks, as we know, are without Damian Lillard. The Grizzlies have been in a steady slide for a couple months now. Those games against playoff-bound clubs are followed by the tanking Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz.
A team which entered March 32-29 is now on the verge of 50 wins. What an incredible turnaround down the stretch here.
Prediction: Wolves finish 4-0 to finish the season 50-32.
Grizzlies’ Mettle Will Be Tested
The Grizzlies haven’t felt right for awhile, and the firing of head coach Taylor Jenkins suggests they’re ready to regroup and come back fresh for 2025-26.
After a 35-16 start, Memphis has gone 11-17. The coaching change has done little to alleviate its troubles. Beating a tanking Charlotte Hornets team should be easy enough but the three following games will be a serious test of how much fire is really in the belly.
Prediction: Grizzlies finish 1-3 to finish the season 47-35. Eighth seed.
Final Tally
Based on these predictions, we’ve got:
Third seed: Lakers (50-32). Won season-series with Warriors, tied season-series with Wolves. Won division.
Fourth seed: Warriors (50-32). Won season-series with Wolves.
Fifth seed: Wolves (50-32)
Sixth seed: Clippers (49-33)
Seventh seed: Nuggets (48-34)
Eighth seed: Grizzlies (47-35)
A showdown between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James in the first round? Yes, please. Let’s not forget the history of Doncic going up against the Clippers as well.
