The Celtics have evolved beyond the need for Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule, where a true contender should have 40 wins before 20 losses. 55 wins before 15 losses is the new, frankly absurd, standard and puts this team on pace to be one of the winningest in the most winningest franchise in the NBA. I’d also add that winningest is a silly word. This is a special regular season; one we haven’t seen for about 15 years or so. On this episode, we will do a quick comparison between this year’s regular season and the 2007-08 team, talk about the bench’s growing chemistry, and end with the grueling experience of blowing leads.
Stat of the Week: 10.8 net rating
The 2007-08 Boston Celtics occupy a very special place in my heart. It is, at least for now, the only Celtics championship during my lifetime. The season also ran through my junior year at UMass during which I turned 21. Boy, I was young then. It was, for many, many reasons, an extremely fun year.
A big reason why it was so fun was because the ‘08 Celtics weren’t just good, they were dominant. Their 10.8 net rating didn’t just lead the league, it jumped on the subway and blew past all the other competitors like Rosie Ruiz. They were a full 2.5 points per 100 possessions better than the second place Pistons. For comparison, the 2022-23 Celtics led the league in net rating by 1.1 and the 21-22 Suns led by 0.1. Anytime you’re over 2 points per 100 better anyone else in the NBA, you’ve got something special brewing.
Well, this season the Celtics’ 11.8 net rating is 4.2 points per 100 better than the second place Thunder. 4.2! Their dominance has shades of ‘08, but what’s interesting is how they’re doing it compared to the ‘08 team.
The Big 3 Celtics weren’t just a good defensive team, they weren’t just elite, they were all-time levels of dominant. Their 98.1 defensive rating was 2.4 points per 100 better than the next best defense, but their offense was actually fairly middling, especially given the offensive talent. They ranked 11th in offensive rating that season and were a disaster in the clutch with the 25th best clutch offense.
This year’s Celtics team is a two-way monster. Unlike the ‘08 team, their offense is the shining star. It’s 2.3 points per 100 better than the next best team, which is very similar to the ‘08 team’s defensive dominance. But while the ‘08 defense covered the relatively benign offense, this year’s team ranks second in the league on defense. The number 1 offense combined with the number 2 defense is a recipe for a historic season.
But having a historic regularly season means just about nothing if it doesn’t end the same way as 07-08. Looking back, that championship felt inevitable, but the journey was anything but. I remember the anxious terror going into Game 7 against the lowly Atlanta Hawks. I expect this playoff run to be no different, but this team has shown they are ready to remind us all of 2008.
Xs and Oooohhhhhhhhs: the indelible chemistry of Jayson Tatum and the bench
There’s just something joyful about the way the Celtics, and especially the bench, are playing basketball right now. It’s a dangerous cocktail of confidence and execution, one that has been blowing teams off the court. The 3-man combo of Kornet-Hauser-Pritchard are +10.0 per 100 possessions, which would easily lead the league. But, if you toss Tatum into that mix, the net rating jumps all the way to +23.8 in a not insignificant 167 minutes.
Basically, any combo of Tatum and two of the Bus One Boys trio are killing teams. They are completely locked in on playing the right way on the offensive end. Moving the ball, moving themselves, and finding Kornet on lobs and in the dunker spot when the defense helps off him.
Tatum and basically any combination of PP/Sam/Luke is killing teams, and the four of them on the floor together is +23.7. They’ve got amazing chemistry no matter who they share the court with. pic.twitter.com/YjSOUfq4rn
— Wayne Spooney (@WSpooney) March 23, 2024
Their particular blend of skills complement Tatum perfectly. Kornet is a willing passer that’s drastically improved reading defenses and sets screens that shiver defenders and create loads of space. The shooting threat of Hauser and Pritchard maximizes spacing and whenever defenders help off of them, the other 3 find them immediately.
It’s a thrilling display of basketball distilled to its essence — four players that understand each other’s games perfectly and are maximizing their potential because of it. Those four deserve a lot of credit, but so does Joe Mazzulla. He’s not only putting these players into position to succeed, but he’s empowered them to be themselves, stretch their games a bit, and allowed them to make the occasional mistake. The result is a bench unit that isn’t just good, it might just be the best in the league.
Non-basketball Stuff of the Week: did they just change the rules?
It seems pretty clear that Adam Silver, whilst sitting on the O’Brien Throne, picked up the phone and instructed the refs to start calling the game differently. Defenses are getting away with more contact, able to play physically while the refs swallow their whistles. From the start of the season to February 15th, the 15th ranked offensive rating was 116.2. From February 15th until today, it’s down to 113.4. That might just be sample size noise, but the eye test tells a different story.
Here’s the thing, I actually like the change, but it’s pretty crazy that it happened. Assuming this is real and I’m not connecting dots like Charlie Kelly looking for Pepe Silvia, a late season change to a foundational way the game is called is an incredibly bold choice. It would be like if they switched balls mid-season or something. A positive of the change, other than the obvious defensive benefits, is that games are being called much closer to the way the NBA Playoffs are called. It’s preparatory, and with about a dozen games left on the schedule and the Celtics looking at a (hopefully) long playoff run, the Cs have plenty of time to prepare.
