Is there more a fitting destiny for the 2023-24 Kings than this? The Kings finished the regular season in 9th, a seed that in most of NBA history would mean the season was over. But now with the Play-In tournament, the Kings still have a shot. It’s like Overtime on the entire season. But to move on, the Kings will have to do something they weren’t able to do last year: knock off Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. This is Sacramento’s shot at redemption.
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Tuesday, April 16th, 7:00 PM PT
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV: TNT, truTV
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140
Three Things
Same Same, But Different
No two teams in the NBA have played each other more in the last year than the Kings and Warriors. After facing each other in a seven-game series last year, the Kings and Warriors split the season series this year with three of the games being decided by just one point. However the Kings and Warriors haven’t played each other in quite a while and both teams look fairly different. The Kings are obviously without both Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, and new starter Keon Ellis has only seen 5 minutes of action against the Warriors all season. Whereas last year the Kings were all offense and no defense, as of late it’s been the opposite. The Kings ended up finishing 14th in defense, ranking as one of the top defensive teams since March 1st.
The Warriors meanwhile have been on a bit of a roll since the last time the Kings played. Back then they were just 19-23. The Warriors would go on to be 25-12 since then, a pace that would have landed them the 4th seed if they were able to keep it up for a season. They finished the season winning 10 of their last 12 games to put them in the position they are in now. Rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis now starts at Center and Kings nemesis Kevon Looney barely plays. Chris Paul, Jonathan Kuminga and rookie Brandin Podziemski run the bench unit. Steph is still Steph but Klay Thompson has regained a bit of his mojo. This is a dangerous team, better than their record suggests, and they have championship experience on their side, but are also using more youth than ever. But this isn’t like Game 7 last year where both teams had multiple games to figure each other out. This is one game, win or go home.
All Eyes on Domantas Sabonis
The Warriors series last year was not kind to Domantas Sabonis. Despite putting up 16.4 points and 11 rebounds a game over the series, it was clear the Warriors frustrated him in ways other teams didn’t. Golden State opted to sag off him and dare him to shoot jumpers, and they aggressively looked to take away the dribble-handoff game that was so crucial to Sacramento’s league-leading offense. Kevon Looney was also a wall in the paint, not biting on Sabonis’ many fakes and also dominating the glass in a way we almost never see against Sabonis. Sabonis is more key to the Kings offense than ever, especially with Malik Monk out, and the Kings can’t afford for him to struggle tonight. If the Warriors dare him to shoot, shoot. I liked the way he was confident in his midrange jumper against Portland in the final season, almost as if it was a test for this game. This is a chance for redemption not just for the Kings but for Sabonis as well, and if he can find a way to punish the Warriors for the way they play him, the Kings will have a good chance at pulling this off.
X-Factor
In a game like this, we know the stars are probably going to shine. Steph Curry is amazing and De’Aaron Fox is going to lead the way for the Kings in all likelihood. But in a win or go home like this, the winner is likely going to have a player who stepped up and played above and beyond. The Warriors probably have more options for who that player could be right now than the Kings. Could it be one of the rookies, Podziemski or Davis? Will Jonathan Kuminga come off the bench to drop 20+? Is Kevon Looney going to rise from the grave like the Ghost of Christmas past to haunt the Kings once more? Hopefully not.
For the Kings, the best bet is on Keegan Murray. Murray has stepped up his aggression of late and last year was more of just a spot up shooter against the Warriors. He struggled for the first part of the series before finding his rhythm. But Murray might also be tasked with guarding Steph, a tiring role in itself but one he has performed admirably in their matchups so far this season. Keon Ellis is someone the Warriors haven’t seen, and while he’s a defensive minded player, he’s shown he can reliably knock down his long range jumpers, leading the Kings in 3P% this season at 41.7%. This will be the biggest game yet of Keon’s young NBA career. Davion Mitchell’s another candidate to be the X-Factor. Last season the Warriors dared him to shoot the triple and he failed to punish them, making just 25.9% of his threes in the series. He spent all offseason working on his shot and while he started off the season poorly, he’s been lights out since the All-Star break, making 41.6% of his threes in the last 28 games. Then there’s Trey Lyles who has been Sacramento’s best big off the bench all season, or who knows, maybe Sasha Vezenkov finally has his hero Sacramento moment. Whatever the case, one (if not multiple) of these players needs to step up tonight if the Kings hope to move on.
Prediction
Would it be a Kings-Warriors game without some drama? Much like this game is overtime on the season, this game also heads into overtime. In the end, with the Kings down two points, the ball finds Harrison Barnes in the same spot as Game 4 last year. This time though, he knocks it down as the buzzer sounds and the Kings playoff hopes stay alive.
Kings 126, Warriors 125
Fan Predictions
