The Cavaliers by the numbers

It’s official. The Boston Celtics will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Donovan Mitchell helped lead his team through a tough seven-game series against a young and plucky Orlando Magic team. Now, the Cavs have until Tuesday to work on their game plan for approaching the Celtics.

Let’s examine what makes the Cavaliers tick on both sides of the floor so we know what to expect come opening tip.

Cleveland: By the numbers

Cleveland ended the regular season ranked 16th in the league in offensive rating, averaging 114.7 points per 100 possessions. In average scoring through the season, they trailed the Celtics by 7.5 points per 100.

On defense, the Cavaliers ranked 7th in the league for defensive rating, holding their opponents to 112.1 points per 100. That put them 12th in the NBA for Net Rating, with a +2.5. It’s not bad, but it’s a far cry from Boston’s +11.7.

Those numbers have taken a dip after facing a tough Orlando defense. Over their first six games (the tracking data hadn’t updated for the seventh game as I wrote this), the Cavaliers sit 15th among the playoff teams for offensive rating, averaging 98.9 points per 100. They’re fairing far better on the defensive end, though, sitting fourth—one spot behind Boston—in defensive rating at 107 points.

Cleveland’s offensive struggles during the postseason should be concerning for them heading into a series against the Celtics. Boston held the Miami Heat to under 100 points on four occasions; they will have no problem throttling Cleveland’s offense if it shows signs of stuttering out the gate.

When looking at this from a top-down view, the Celtics are a dominant team on both sides of the floor. They’re scoring more freely and playing a tougher brand of defense. The Cavaliers must elevate their level of play to make this a competitive series.

So, let’s start peeling off some additional layers. All data, unless stated otherwise, is courtesy of Cleaning The Glass. I have stuck with regular-season data because it has a bigger sample size and paints a clearer picture.

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where Cleveland’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Cavaliers are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim – 35.4%, 5th in the league
• Mid-Range – 25.6%, 30st in the league
• Short mid-range – 19.6%, 28th in the league
• Long mid-range – 6.1%, 28th in the league
• 3-Point range – 39%, 7th in the league
• Non-corner 3’s – 29%, 6th in the league
• Corner 3 – 10%, 11 in the league

Offensive Shot location accuracy

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court – the higher the league ranking, the better the Cavaliers are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim – 65.5%, 18th in the league
• Mid-Range – 44.2%, 13th in the league
• Short mid-range – 43.9%, 14th in the league
• Long mid-range, 45%, 7th in the league
• 3-Point range – 37.1%, 15th in the league
• Non-Corner 3’s – 37%, 11th in the league
• Corner 3 – 37.4%, 23rd in the league

Putting that into context

Cleveland has no problem getting to the rim. They’re smart with how they space the floor. When both are on the court, Jarrett Allen is the rim-runner, and Evan Mobley works out of the corner. That allows Cleveland the space they need to pressure the rim at will.

However, getting to the rim and finishing at the rim are two different things. They’re one of the best teams in the NBA at generating shot attempts within 4 feet of the basket but are near the bottom-10 in their ability to convert those looks.

What make’s it tougher for the Cavaliers, is that they’re not a big mid-range shooting team — not even in terms of floaters. They’re in the bottom-3 of the NBA for short and long mid-range attempts, although they do find reasonable success when they turn to those shots.

Cleveland does like to shoot the three. They’re 7th in the league for perimeter shots attempted. They’re a middling team in terms of conversion rate, sitting 15th in the NBA. Don’t let that fool you, though, because when you take away their corner attempts, they’re a borderline top-10 perimeter offense. A lot of those shots are coming from Max Strus and Donovan Mitchell — we will get into matchups later.

So, what does this mean for the Celtics? Joe Mazzulla will likely be looking to limit the Cavaliers’ ability to get downhill. The more the Celtics can protect and take away the rim, the tougher Cleveland will find it to generate offense. Given the Cavaliers’ penchant for Morey Ball, finding ways to force them into the mid-range and living with them taking those shots will be ideal.

As such, I would expect some high pick-up points with solid pinching below the free-throw line. A switching system would also put the Cavaliers into isolation plays, limiting their ability to flow into secondary or tertiary actions.

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against the Cavaliers’ defense – the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams attack those spots.

• Around the rim – 33.6%, 18th in the league
• Mid-range – 31.2%, 14th in the league
• Short mid-rage – 22.2%, 15th in the league
• Long mid-range – 9.1%, 21st in the league
• 3-Point range – 35.1%, 8th in the league
• Non-Corner 3’s – 25%, 4th in the league
• Corner 3 – 10.2%, 22nd in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense – the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim – 62.8%, 3rd in the league
• Mid-range – 41.6%, 6th in the league
• Short mid-rage – 42.1%, 7th in the league
• Long mid-range – 40.3%, 8th in the league
• 3-Point range – 37.7%, 21st in the league
• Non-Corner 3’s – 39.9%, 20th in the league
• Corner 3 – 36.8%, 19th in the league

Putting that into context

Generating offense around the Cavaliers’ rim is a difficult task. Their enormous frontcourt limits easy looks in the restricted area. Interestingly, J.B. Bickerstaff has his team setting traps. They allow a large amount of offense at their rim, sitting 18th in the NBA for shots within their restricted area. Yet they’re 3rd for rim protection. They know their strengths and have no problem funneling teams toward their shot blockers.

Part of creating that funnel is being a tough mid-range defense. You’ve got to take away one or two-dribble pull-ups when shooters are attacking close-outs. That’s how you force them to drive or force a re-direct for a stampede cut or some secondary actions.

It also helps that the Cavaliers have a reliable perimeter defense in terms of denying three-point attempts. Opposing teams are only generating 35.1% of their offense on the perimeter. The problem Cleveland has is that when opposing teams do generate perimeter offense, they have a hard time impacting the shot, with them being a bottom-10 team in 3DFG%.

What does this mean for the Celtics? It would make sense for Boston to stick to their usual game plan. If the Cavs are happy letting teams get downhill, Mazzulla will likely task his team with running a drive-and-kick-heavy game. Cleveland’s struggles when guarding the corner three could lead to Jrue Holiday having a big series in terms of scoring and shot making.

Of course, it makes sense for Boston to test Cleveland’s rim protection, too — after all, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are two of the best slashing wings in the NBA and have enough counters to keep the defensive bigs on their toes.

Setting the Stage for the Celtics: Dealing with rim-pressure

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against Boston’s defense – the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams are attacking those spots.

• Around the rim – 29%, 3rd in the league
• Mid-range – 33.7%, 26th in the league
• Short mid-rage – 23.6%, 22nd in the league
• Long mid-range – 10.1%, 27th in the league
• 3-Point range – 37.3%, 20th in the league
• Non-Corner 3’s – 8.1%, 4th in the league
• Corner 3 – 29.2%, 28th in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense – the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim – 63.6%, 5th in the league
• Mid-range – 42.8%, 13th in the league
• Short mid-rage – 43.2%, 13th in the league
• Long mid-range – 42%, 12th in the league
• 3-Point range – 36.1%, 6th in the league
• Non-Corner 3’s – 36.4%, 2nd in the league
• Corner 3 – 36%, 13th in the league

Without Porzingis in the rotation, the Celtics rim protection will take a major hit. Yes, on paper, they’re one of the better defensive teams in the league within four feet of the basket. Yet, without their star big man, that effectiveness could take a dip.

As such, Mazzulla’s team could tweak their defensive system and go back to a more pressure-based defense. You don’t want Mitchell or Garland getting hot off the dribble, so switching and cross-matching could be the answer. By cross-matching, you’re also limiting opposing bigs’ opportunities to get downhill as a role man.

For someone like Allen, if you take away his ability to roll or cut to the rim, you’re drastically reducing his effectiveness on offense. Mobley will require some additional attention as he can shoot the ball from all three levels.

If Mazzulla does opt to stick with a drop defense, then Horford must lean into his ability to cut off angles and read the offense’s game plan. He is at his best when rotating early and forcing opponents toward the baseline or to their weaker hand. He’s also strong enough to adjust his pick-up point and tag rollers in the mid-post — again to limit their effectiveness around the rim.

Luke Kornet will also have a big role to play. He might not be as mobile as Porzignis, but his positioning and size make him a good option for containing ball-handlers as they penetrate off the PnR. Kornet can also provide resistance in the paint, although he’s not the most physical of defenders. Nevertheless, his size can pose a problem and will allow Mazzulla to keep pace with Bickerstaff when he goes big.

Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Celtics vs. Cavs: The matchups

A lot depends on how Mazzulla opts to deal with his starting unit…Does he go double-big to counter the Heat’s size? Or does he stick with a single-big rotation to begin and end games?

My personal preference is to stick with single-big, at least for now. It allows the Celtics more fluidity on offense and keeps the best players on the floor. As such, one potential matchup could look like this:

White – Garland

Jrue – Allen (if healthy)

Brown – Mitchell

Tatum – Strus

Horford – Mobley

This matchup would assume that Boston is switching 1-through-5 and would put Holiday on Allen to cross-match the most dangerous big and limit Mitchell or Garland’s effectiveness as PnR creators and/or scorers. Of course, Tatum may be better suited to guard Mobley due to his size, length, and versatility as a help defender.

Who knows, I could be totally off base here. I’m just throwing out one option that could potentially work. My thought process is about limiting Allen’s effectiveness as a rim-runner while also containing the scoring and playmaking of Cleveland’s backcourt.

Let me know your thoughts on this in the comments section!

CelticsBlog graciously allowed this article to be cross-posted from my “Celtics Chronicle” newsletter.