Photos by The Associated Press
On June 19th, the Washington Capitals and the Los Angeles Kings created some shock waves with a trade, with the Kings sending soon-to-be 26 year old center Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Capitals in return for beleaguered veteran goaltender Darcy Kuemper. The timing of the trade was interesting: for one, it was right smack in the middle of the Stanley Cup Final series; and for two, it was a couple of weeks before Dubois’ full no-movement clause kicked in on the second year of his 8 year contract he signed last summer with the Kings.
The trade itself is a risky proposition. The Capitals are banking on the coaching style and prowess of Spencer Carbery to help Dubois reach his potential as a top line center. On top of that, the Capitals can offer a top six center role to Dubois, which he struggled to get in Los Angeles with Anze Kopitar, Philip Danault, and Quinton Byfield as the other centers on their squad.
Kuemper was slated to be the backup goalie behind Charlie Lindgren this season after Lindgren’s breakout 2023-24 campaign. $5.25M a year is a lot to be paying a backup goalie, and ultimately the Capitals likely saw a better investment in a 26 year-old former top-five pick who can play a full season and contribute to the top six rather than an aging goaltender who had one of his worst seasons playing about 25 games.
In this post, we’re going to breakdown the trade, looking particularly at the performance of Dubois in his past two seasons (one with Winnipeg, the other last season with Los Angeles). The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Hockey Reference, Evolving-Hockey, and HockeyViz. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.
The Ugly: Dubois’ 2023-24 Season
We’re first going to rip off the band-aid and take a look at Dubois’ rather disappointing performance last season. To me, last season was likely the floor of Dubois’ level of performance over the entire season (yes, I remember the famous shift in Columbus that resulted in his benching and subsequent trade to Winnipeg).
Before we get into more advanced metrics, let’s quickly cover Dubois’ offensive production (box score statistics) last season. Dubois posted 16 goals and 24 assists for 40 points in 82 games. 7 of his 16 goals and 1 of his 24 assists came on the power play for the Kings.
Let’s take a look at his Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) from this past season. These RAPM charts help us chart a player’s performance in key metric areas and compare them to other players in their same position group (so forwards in this case).
This is truly a mixed bag. While Dubois struggled compared to league average when it comes to actual goal scoring rates while on the ice (GF/60), he actually was about a half-standard deviation higher than average in terms of expected goals for generation (xGF/60). A lot of that can come down to opposition and linemates, so being deployed with better offensive talent in Washington might end up resulting in better GF/60 marks.
Dubois was ever-so-slightly above average in terms of Corsi shot attempt generation (CF/60), but effectively was completely offset by a sub-average Corsi shot attempt against performance (CA/60). The defensive side of the ice was not a strong showing for Dubois.
The goal scoring woes while on the ice followed Dubois to the power play. This was despite a slightly above average xGF/60 performance and a very solid CF/60 performance.
Now, let’s take a look at Dubois’ player card from Evolving Hockey:
Overall, this wasn’t a banner year for Dubois. He struggled in the key areas of Goals Above Replacement (GAR) – even strength offense, even strength defense, and power play offense. With this performance, Dubois posted a -0.6 GAR, meaning that he was just below replacement level this past season.
Now, let’s take a look at his isolated impact from last season:
Overall, this is telling a very similar story to what we covered before. He was pretty decent during even strength offensive situations, with a 2% higher rate of GF/60 while on the ice for the Kings versus when he was on the bench. But, that was more than negated with his defensive performance, allowing 3% higher xGA/60 when on the ice for the Kings than when he was on the bench.
His power play marks were also negatively impactful on the Kings’ power play performance, and they were ultimately slightly better with him on the bench instead of deployed on the power play in regards to generating xGF/60.
I did mention I wanted to start with the bad and rip the band-aid off. But now, let’s dive into one of his best seasons, with the Winnipeg Jets during the 22-23 season.
The Good: Dubois’ 2022-23 season
Dubois’ performance during the 2022-23 season was extremely strong, and he used his leverage as a restricted free agent to force a trade to the Los Angeles Kings and sign a long-term, big ticket contract: an 8-year deal with an $8.5M cap hit. It seemed like a good deal at the time, considering Dubois posted 27 goals and 36 assists for 63 points in 73 games.
Let’s take a look at Dubois’ RAPM performance for the 2022-23 season:
This feels pretty close to the level you should expect from Dubois if he’s playing at his level of capability. He has a ton of talent, and potentially has a questionable work ethic (sound familiar?). His GF/60 and xGF/60 were extremely strong during even strength, and his defensive metrics (xGA/60 and CA/60) were only slightly below league average.
On top of that, we see a complete reversal on the power play than what we saw this past season in LA. Dubois was an extremely effective player on the power play.
Here’s his player card from the 2022-23 season:
We can clearly see that when Dubois is engaged and playing up to his capability, he’s a high echelon offensive talent in the NHL. His GAR during the 2022-23 season was up at 13.8, which is considerably higher than his -0.6 GAR performance with the Kings last season.
Now, here’s his isolated impact with the Jets in the 2022-23 season:
We can see the performance we reviewed above continue here: the Jets were 3% more effective in generating xGF/60 during even strength play with Dubois on the ice, and were 9% more effective in generating xGF/60 on the power play with Dubois on the ice. Defensively, the Jets were practically the same with Dubois on the ice versus off the ice.
MacLellan’s Gamble
Realistically, this is a pretty intriguing gamble by MacLellan. While Dubois is only about to turn 26 years old, the price tag on his contract is rather expensive at $8.5M, and he’s signed through the 2030-31 season. I do think it really comes down to Spencer Carbery’s ability to get through to Dubois and motivate him to play at the top of his game and play up to his potential. Carbery had some mixed results last season in this regard: he really seemed to get Anthony Mantha back to his true talent level, but struggled to get elevated play from Evgeny Kuznetsov. Obviously, those are two very different personalities and players, but if Carbery can get through to Dubois, this trade might be the heist of the century.
For Darcy Kuemper, it was clear that his short stint as the number one netminder in Washington had come to an end about halfway through last season. Charlie Lindgren took the reins and ran with it, helping push the Capitals into the playoffs against all odds. With Kuemper set to make $5.25M against the cap through the 2026-27 season, it feels like MacLellan felt that it was better to pay a younger center $8.5M a season instead of what would be a very expensive backup goalie who would only play in 25 to 30 games a season. Additionally, the $8.5M cap hit won’t seem quite as bad with the salary cap expected to continue to rise over coming seasons, but it could certainly feel like an albatross if Dubois doesn’t play to his potential.
By Justin Trudel
