As we head into March and the doldrums of the NBA’s regular season, rosters are, for the most part, decided. Teams are permitted to still make signings and waivings up to and including the last day of the regular season, but rarely if ever do those post-deadline moves make an impact on the team’s cap pictures in future seasons. With this in mind, mostly accurate assessments of how each franchise’s salary cap position projects for the upcoming offseason can be made.
In the NBA’s most recent projections, the 2025-26 salary cap is estimated to be set at $154,647,000, a 10 percent increase from this season’s $140,588,000. This nonetheless still represents a figure that is more than double what it was as recently as 2015-16. Team spending has however grown just as much, if not more, and so while many seasons since 2016 have seen plenty of cap space available around the league – certainly much more than across the previous decade, when a far slower rate of growth meant only a handful of teams having any every year – this number has been shrinking again, to the point that – as can be seen below – there will only be one major cap space market-maker next offseason as things stand.
Nonetheless, even though offseason trades, the volatility of draft night, future extensions and contract options can all significantly change matters, there follows a look at each NBA team’s 2025-26 projected spending as things currently stand.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $53,193,234
Cap Space Projection: Maximum cap space, and possibly more than that
The Nets will not be far short of having more salary cap space than the rest of the league combined. It has been the plan ever since they made the decision to give up on the Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving/James Harden trio, and the returning contract of Ben Simmons – which was set to expire even before he was bought out earlier this month – represented a huge part of that cap relief. Eight-figure contracts to Bojan Bogdanovic (also waived), D’Angelo Russell and De’Anthony Melton are also expiring this summer, and although potential new deals for Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe will have to be accounted for, their relatively small cap holds – $12,123,747 for Thomas, $11,967,366 for Sharpe – will not meaningfully impinge on the cap space. And of course, as restricted free agents, both can re-sign after outside free agents come in.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $128,740,963
Cap Space Projection: Potentially up to $25 million in cap space
A resurgent Detroit team still has the opportunity to grow. Tim Hardaway Jr’s $16,193,183 and Dennis Schroeder’s $13,025,250 both expire this summer, and while the kicking-in of Cade Cunningham’s extension eats up many of those savings, the incumbent low payroll will combine with the expected growth in the cap to create another summer with potential cap room. They have a window to make another Tobias Harris-esque signing, a decent veteran on a short-term mid-sized deal who will aid the development of the team without clogging up the cap before too many of the extensions for the young core kick in. Or maybe they can swing something more substantial than that.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $134,846,334
Cap Space Projection: Cap space possible, but non-taxpayer mid-level exception is much more likely
For the Bulls to enjoy any cap space, they would have to lose Josh Giddey. Having not extended him last summer, Giddey will enter restricted free agency with a $25,057,101 cap hold that wipes out any space under the $154 million salary cap; the only way to get that space back is to renounce Giddey’s rights, essentially making him unre-signable. They did not trade Alex Caruso for him, then watch him turn into a Reggie Miller-esque shooter out of nowhere, just to then let him walk, so this will not happen. Since it will not, the Bulls will essentially enter this summer with a full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, and need to hit another Caruso-like home run with it.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $136,494,593
Cap Space Projection: Cap space possible, but non-taxpayer mid-level exception is much, much more likely
As with Chicago above, the only way for Memphis to have any cap space is to lose a key young player. In this instance, it would be Santi Aldama, who is averaging as-near-as-is 13/7/3 on 39 percent three-point shooting as the first big off the bench. They will not be waving goodbye to that just for a tiny slither of cap space that is no more beneficial to them than operating as an over-the-cap team, so expect them to keep Aldama and spend the mid-level (which would also allow them to retain Luke Kennard, if so desired, without impinging on the luxury tax).
2025-26 Cap Figure: $141,937,303
Cap Space Projection: A small amount of cap space possible, but non-taxpayer mid-level exception is infinitely more likely
At the top of the Rockets’ payroll figure is Fred VanVleet, who has a $44,886,930 contract for next season. That number however is behind a team option, and it is both logical – and expected – that VanVleet and the team will work out a new deal that will lead to declining that option in favor of a new, longer deal. This may mean a slight pay cut, or maybe a slight pay bump – whichever it is, the fluctuation will not be enough to get Houston under the salary cap, particularly when factoring in that Steven Adams is also going to be an unrestricted free agent.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $143,094,769
Cap Space Projection: Cap space is technically possible but highly unlikely
In dumping De’Andre Hunter at the deadline, Atlanta received the contract of Caris LeVert, whose $16,615,384 contract expires this summer. This was deliberate, as it gives them some freedom under the luxury tax and first apron. The above figure does not include Clint Capela, who enters unrestricted free agency off of a $22,265,280 salary that he would very much like to get again, but his age, declining play and the continued growth of Onyeka Okongwu makes that unlikely. Retaining a cheaper Capela, then, allows the Hawks to bring back all their best players, and still add a non-taxpayer mid-level exception amount, a level of comfort only made possible by the Hunter trade. But will they be better off for it?
2025-26 Cap Figure: $143,318,427
Cap Space Projection: A modicum of cap space is possible, but staying over and using the MLE is much more likely
The only free agent that the Spurs will have who is earning above the minimum salary will be Chris Paul, whose $10,460,000 contract expires this summer. If he wants to come back for season 21, he could perhaps sign another one like that again. And if he does, he can do so using non-Bird rights, without the need to crack open another MLE. This frees it up for use elsewhere, and despite not having cap space due to the presence of multiple mid-size contracts (such as those owed to Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes), the Spurs have freedom to both buy and sell, free from tax and apron worries.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $150,970,457
Cap Space Projection: Either $30 million in cap space or none
In the summer of 2026, John Collins, Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and KJ Martin’s contracts will all expire. If all are still members of the Jazz at that time, that will mean a shade over $68 million coming off of the cap, with only Lauri Markkanen earning more than the rookie scale. And this would put them in a strong position in the summer of 2026. One substantial caveat to that is that Collins’s final season has a player option attached, and thus he could decline it and become a free agent this summer. If he does, the Jazz could then free up approximately $30 million in cap space this summer, bringing that freedom forward a bit. With it, they can be players in free agency, facilitate trades… or maybe just bring back Collins.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $152,501,780
Cap Space Projection: No space; no tax or apron threats
For a team that is, still, not going anywhere, the Hornets do not have much financial wiggle room to show for it. The large contract owed to LaMelo Ball is one thing, but to clog up the cap with MLE-sized contracts to Josh Green and Grant Williams for minimal returns on the court remind of the cramped caps of old, and the decision at the deadline to take on the $19.375 million committed to Jusuf Nurkic closed the door on any cap space aspirations. It was a conscious decision, though, as in taking on those contracts, the Hornets got some draft capital. That is their priority right now, and they can fit in at least one more unwanted contract with picks attached before the tax becomes a problem. In what is looking to be a summer of trades, this might bode well.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $155,926,702
Cap Space Projection: No cap space, but not tax-threatened either
Trading for Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart at the deadline was an emphatic statement of intent for the Wizards – that intent being, “We’ll happily take on your contracts if you make it worth our while.” As things stand, they are set to shed $100 million from their 2026-27 cap number compared to their 2025-26 one, with Middleton, Smart, Richaun Holmes and Malcolm Brogdon all having expired by then. So while they do not have much to spend in the summer of 2025, they would not want to commit to anything beyond the summer of 2026 anyway.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $160,966,092
Cap Space Projection: No space, tax is possible
Having taken both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan from the Chicago Bulls in the last year, the Kings have high future payroll commitments, with more than $151 million already committed to the 2026-27 season. In consideration of both this and the hard-capping that comes from using the full non-taxpayer amount of the mid-level exception, then, their free agency plans may be limited to only the taxpayer amount, which helpfully will slide into the space availed by the expiration of Trey Lyles’s contract.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $164,744,105
Cap Space Projection: Hard-capping is likely; tax seems inevitable
The Warriors’ huge payroll days are behind them, but not for a lack of trying. In taking on Jimmy Butler at the deadline, the Warriors inherited his hefty salary, which calls for guaranteed amounts of $54,126,450 and $56,832,773 over the next two seasons with no options. With almost $140 million committed to the trio of him, Steph Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors are going surely to be back in the tax. As for the rest of the roster, they will spend what they can, as they always do; however, the aprons and the resultant hard-capping are firmly in play.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $165,638,703
Cap Space Projection: No space; tax seems likely, albeit less so given the franchise’s history
The above figure does not include a contract for Myles Turner. Unless it is extended between now and July 1, Turner’s $19,928,500 contract will expire, and any cap savings that would come from it are to be offset by the big pay rise for Andrew Nembhard (from $2,019,699 to $18,102,000). Considering how long the two have been together, however – especially given the myriad opportunities they have had to trade him over the years – there seems little reason to believe that the Pacers and Turner will part this summer. After all, if they did, they would need another starting center anyway. It will be difficult to fit in a new contract for Turner and still stay under the first apron, let alone the luxury tax threshold or any new additions, and the Pacers historically do not pay the luxury tax unless they have to. Then again, they have not had a team this good for a while.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $167,024,619
Cap Space Projection: No cap space, tax is possible, but not apron-threatened
Portland’s cap picture will change drastically in 16 months time. As of today, they have only $47,599,930 committed in 2026/27, split between Jerami Grant and Deni Avdija; that figure will grow when team options for Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Kris Murray and Toumani Camara are exercised, and both Shaedon Sharpe and Duop Reath will require new contracts at that time, but it still speaks to the fact that their plan is not for next year, but the one after. By that time, the contracts for Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams will all have expired, liberating the cap picture and giving them a chance to add significant talent again. Until then, this upcoming summer is likely to be one mostly of trades, and possibly an MLE signing, as they can afford to fit in a full non-taxpayer mid-level under the tax, unlike almost every team below.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $170,098,900
Cap Space Projection: No space, few tools to work with, and in the proximity of the tax
The Sixers were last year’s market maker, the only team with maximum cap space and the one team who could target whoever they wanted on the free agency market. Unfortunately, the player they wanted – Paul George – has been highly ineffectual, a situation worsened by the continuing injury struggles of Joel Embiid. Those two combined with the max contract also given out to Tyrese Maxey make for a $145 million trio at the core of a 20-37 record. And because of that expenditure, they have neither much wiggle room below the tax and aprons to make further additions, nor much in the way of mid-size contracts that can facilitate trades. They pushed their chips in, missed the flop horribly and now need running cards for a backdoor flush. And while they might be able to fit in a taxpayer mid-level exception signing – or potentially a full non-taxpayer amount, depending on Kelly Oubre’s decision regarding his player option – their problems run a lot deeper than anything a single MLE can fix. Lots to do, and not much to do it with.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $170,557,597
Cap Space Projection: No space and in the proximity of the tax
It is costing the Pelicans a lot of money to be near the bottom of the pile, and any savings that would be forthcoming from the expiration of Bruce Brown‘s $23 million contract have already been allocated to Trey Murphy’s extension. It is however less money than continuing the Brandon Ingram would have cost, and it gives the Pelicans a chance to add talent rather than cut it. At the same time, their spot in the high lottery – the sole saving grace from whatever this season has been – puts the team on a different timeline to much of their roster. So there are probably plenty of deals to come, and not much value in using their full mid-level exception as a result.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $170,638,781
Cap Space Projection: No space and in the proximity of the tax
Despite the fact that they exercised some selective aggression in attempting to buy low on the veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic at the deadline, this iteration of the Clippers seems unlikely to exist beyond the next few weeks. Norman Powell will enter the final season of his contract in 2025-26 – one he has outperformed – and with the Paul George era finally having come to an end, the Kawhi Leonard era may as well do too. They might also want to consider getting what they can for James Harden, who may be enjoying a second wind but whose value only diminishes from here as his career approaches the 18th tee. Despite being accurate at this point in time, then, the above-stated cap figure could well shift markedly, depending on which direction the Clippers take.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $172,077,326
Cap Space Projection: No space and in the proximity of the tax, but no longer second-apron threatened
The finances were a big part of the motivation for the Khris Middleton/Kyle Kuzma swap that the Bucks made at the deadline. Kuzma’s smaller salary – which, unusually for an NBA contract, actually declines in value across its duration – gives the Bucks enough room to potentially re-sign Brook Lopez (admittedly at a discount from his current $23 million salary) and be able to use at least part of their mid-level exception, rather than being hamstrung by the aprons and hard caps like before. So expect them to do that.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $172,595,541
Cap Space Projection: No space, tax in sight, but should be all right
As things stand, the Thunder will only have the following players in free agency; their three two-way players (Branden Carlson, Adam Flagler and Alex Ducas), plus team options on Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin (not Jalen) Williams. The good news is that means every top-level rotation player is tied down, and thus there is no money needed to retain their quality core. The bad news is that means there are next to no roster spots for their egregious cache of draft picks. It will likely therefore be a summer of working the margins for the Thunder, kicking some cans down some roads and developing from within. Unless, of course, a needle-moving trade opportunity presents itself.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $175,846,790
Cap Space Projection: No space; should be all right in dodging the luxury tax
The Magic’s contracts to each of Jonathan Isaac, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter all decline next season, and if they are retained, Moritz Wagner’s ($11 million) and Gary Harris’s ($7,500,000) cap numbers will remain even. This is the result of deliberate planning, as the extensions to both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner kick in, costing a combined $73,661,700. With nearly half the salary cap going to those two, Orlando do not have much in the way of spending power this summer. That said, they also have absolutely no free agents.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $176,542,132
Cap Space Projection: No cap space, but no immediate tax or apron concerns
Although Bam Adebayo will be the team’s highest-paid player at $37,096,620, having three other players earn between $26-31 million plus the $19,888,000 still owed via a player option to Duncan Robinson means that the Heat will be fairly inflexible even after the Jimmy Butler trade. There is scope for just about fitting in a partial mid-level exception signing underneath the luxury tax, yet the disjointed Heat we see before us today are not a team worth starting the repeater tax clock on. They also only have Alec Burks and Davion Mitchell hitting free agency from the main roster (i.e. not including two-way players). In tandem, then, do not expect the Heat to do much at all in free agency.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $177,976,924
Cap Space Projection: No space, and not much room under the apron; might just be able to fit in an MLE
Toronto are poised to have a higher 2025-26 payroll than 2024-25 before 2025-26 even rolls around. They are set to spend a shade under $178 million, and none of their highest-earners are hitting free agency; the savings created by the expirations of Chris Boucher’s $10,810,000 contract and PJ Tucker’s $11,539,000 deal are immediately offset by the beginning of Scottie Barnes’s second contract. It is a lot of money for a team with a .305 winning percentage, and although they will be expecting a bounce-back season and renewed playoff contention, there is not a lot of wiggle room to get better this summer.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $185,603,033
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying team dealing with at least one apron
The Karl-Anthony Towns trade, for all its problems, at least saved some money. The returning duo of Julius Randle (if he opts into his $30,935,520 player option for next season) and Donte DiVincenzo combine for a smidgeon under $43 million in salary next year, as opposed to Towns’ $53,142,264, which creates some much-needed wiggle room below the projected first apron line of $195,945,000. Naz Reid, however, also has a player option, and he is expected to decline it in pursuit of a raise above the $15,022,464 he would be set to earn under it. In a Towns-less time, Reid becomes more important than ever, and retaining him will be a priority for the Wolves before any external signings. Yet combined with the desire to re-sign Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Wolves will be back battling with the second apron that they just traded their franchise player to get away from, even before making any additions. And with the franchise’s ownership situation still in flux, times might be a little tight for the Wolves.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $189,239,092
Cap Space Projection: No cap space; undetermined tax and apron proximity
As of right now, L.A.’s only salaries committed after the 2025-26 season are player option seasons for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves (both of which will surely be declined), the final two years of Dalton Knecht’s rookie scale contract, Bronny James’ minimum salary and manageable deals for Shake Milton and Jarred Vanderbilt. They therefore have plenty of scope for spending money in the coming years. And having acquired Doncic at a snip of his expected price, they will certainly do that. Doncic will be eligible for a supermax contract this summer, which he will get, and LeBron James’ love of a player option will see him needing yet another new deal this summer, but the Lakers have the pockets and motivation to spend everything that they can.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $193,550,487
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying team dealing with at least one apron
One of the reasons cited for the Mavericks’ decision to make the terrible, horrible, no-good very bad trade of Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis was that they were not convinced that Doncic would continue to be good value on the supermax deal he was eligible for (and would inevitably sign for) this summer. It is not however much of a salary-dump trade when you are taking back a player with a three-year, $186.6 million outstanding commitment like Davis. Owing $100 million to him and Kyrie Irving alone makes the Mavericks destined to pay some form of tax on any fully assembled roster, and Irving’s $43,962,963 for next season is only available via a player option that he may well decline in pursuit of a bigger, longer deal. Dallas, then, will still be paying a lot of money for the privilege of not being nearly as good as they were.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $194,354,847
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying team dealing with at least one apron
Between them, the quartet of Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart have 14 seasons left to run on their contracts after this one. The core, then, is in place. And although Mikal Bridges’s deal expires in 2026, the need to extend/renew that will not affect their 2025-26 cap number, which should be manageable enough. As things stand, the Knicks should be able to use some of the taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, without running into second apron strife, but for as long as they keep this core, it will be touch-and-go.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $203,509,384
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying team dealing with at least one apron
$148 million committed to the trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr alone is always going to put Denver in the tax territory. However, they have one more year until Aaron Gordon’s new extension (and subsequent $9 million pay rise) kicks in, which should keep them below the second apron next year. And they may very well look to dump Zeke Nnaji (and his $8,177,778 contract) to make sure of that.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $209,897,774
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying team dealing with at least one apron
The punitive effects of the second apron (see below) have given rise to a school of thought that contending teams may only be able to endure those restrictions for two years of a five-year competitive window. And as things stand, 2025-26 might be the first of those for the Cavaliers. With extensions for Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell kicking in, the Cavs’ $172 million payroll in 2024-25 is due to spike up to an amount that is roughly in line with where the second apron will kick in, but with Ty Jerome’s unrestricted free agency still to be dealt with. That said, they are clearly OK with this, or else they would not have traded at the deadline for De’Andre Hunter and the two-year $48.2 million outstanding on his deal.
2025-26 Cap Figure: $210,624,320
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying, dual-aproned team
The 2025-26 second apron is currently projected to kick in at $207,824,000. The Suns, therefore, are projected to once again be over it. And the resultant lack of flexibility is once again going to make it very difficult to do the much-needed roster reformation they still have not solved. Considering how widespread rumors about him being traded at February’s deadline were, it seems entirely possible that Kevin Durant may be the one to be moved, but the second apron’s restrictions prevent teams over that threshold from taking back more than 100 percent of their outgoing salary, and also from being able to aggregate outgoing salaries (i.e. deal multiple players in the same trade). Will it come to the point that they have to use the stretch provision just to be able to make multi-player trades again? And if so, might that stretch provision be used on – who would have thought it – Bradley Beal?
2025-26 Cap Figure: $223,292,391
Cap Space Projection: None; over the cap, taxpaying, dual-aproned team
Unlike Phoenix, the Celtics are happy enough to be over the second apron. The defending NBA champions have another title-contending team, and of the rotation, only Al Horford (an expiring $9.5 million contract) and Luke Kornet (expiring minimum salary) are headed to free agency. With Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday all already tied down, it figures to be a quiet offseason for the Celtics – little spending flexibility is required, because there is pleasingly little to do.
