Scouting the Celtics’ potential first round opponents

With the Celtics locked into the second seed and the playoffs on the horizon, it’s that time of year when we start sizing up potential opponents. Thanks to the Play-In format, Boston could face any of the four teams ranked 7th through 10th in the Eastern Conference.

While some might pencil Boston into the second round already, each of these teams brings something different to the table. Today, I’ll break down their strengths, weaknesses, how they’ve fared against the Celtics, and what Boston must do to win.

Orlando Magic (50.9%)

Boston went 1-2 against Orlando this season, but the context matters. One loss came during a dreadful shooting night (under 25% from deep), and the other saw the Celtics rest all their starters. In their lone full-squad effort, Boston dominated 121-94.

Orlando has an exciting young wing duo in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but they lack the depth and experience to keep pace with elite teams.

Keys to Victory:

• Force the ball out of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s hands.

The Magic’s strength is wing play with Banchero and Wagner, but the Celtics have proven they can make them uncomfortable. By zeroing in on Wagner and Banchero with unique defensive schemes — like a box-and-one from the win — the Celtics can force the rest of the Magic squad to beat them.

With a relatively weak supporting cast, a scoring barrage from the Magic’s “other guys” would be a rare sight in a playoff atmosphere. Besides, even if the matchup becomes a shootout between each team’s wing duo, I love Boston’s odds with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

• Pack the paint on defense

Orlando is really bad at shooting threes. They shoot 31.5% from beyond the arc, the worst in the league by two percent — yes, even worse than teams like the Wizards who are probably trying to miss.

Boston can pack the paint and force Magic drivers into kickouts. There won’t be many threats on the outside to punish the Celtics in those situations. If they do find some rhythm beyond the arc, like the first matchup, I expect the Celtics to adjust accordingly this time. However, that previous shooting performance seems more like an anomaly than the norm.

• Establish the three-pointer early

This could be a key for any Celtics game, but it is especially important against the Magic. The Magic average the most blocks per game of any team (5.9 per game) and the second least opponent paint points per game — they proved it with 9 blocks against the Celtics in their first win.

Since the Celtics weren’t knocking down their threes, Orlando collapsed the paint and was ready for forced drives and post-ups. However, when the Celtics were cashing in at their usual clip in the next game, things opened up.

While Derrick White and Payton Pritchard were getting going from the outside, Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis were doing damage in the paint with much cleaner driving lanes — and that’s the beauty of Celtics basketball. If the Celtics don’t want to play into Orlando’s hand, they must start hitting from beyond the arc early.

Consensus:

While there are certain matchups that the Celtics can expose with regularity, this series still won’t be a cakewalk. The Celtics are 3-4 in their last seven matchups against Orlando.

The Magic are young, hungry, and tough on defense. If the Celtics lose focus the Magic can exploit them. Still, if the Celtics play to their strengths and avoid cold spells or mental lapses, they should handle the Magic in five. This would be the toughest of the possible play-in matchups, but Boston has the edge.

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Atlanta Hawks (25.3%)

Atlanta is scrappy — and no stranger to making things closer than they should be. The Celtics blew them out in the first meeting without Brown or Porzingis, but the next two games were tight, including a wild NBA Cup loss without Trae Young and an infuriating overtime defeat in January.

The Hawks hang around. They linger even when it seems like they’re done for. If Boston wants to avoid any unnecessary drama, here’s what needs to happen.

Keys to Victory:

• Rebound, rebound, rebound

The Hawks have bested the Celtics in the rebound category in both wins, especially on offense. In the NBA Cup, the Hawks hauled in 20 offensive rebounds which was capped off by an embarrassing put-back to seal the game.

Constantly having a paint presence to fend off Atlanta’s savvy rebounders will be key. When Porzingis and Al Horford were out in the January matchup, Luke Kornet was actually phenomenal on the boards. The Celtics’ downfall was directly correlated to when Joe Mazzulla strangely decided to play small ball to close the game.

It will be an all-around effort on the boards, as the Hawks host plenty of athletic wings. Boston needs a consistent paint presence, especially from Porzingis and Horford, but also gang rebounding from the wings to stop guys like Risacher and Daniels from crashing in.

The Hawks average the second most steals of any team in the league, and that has shown against the Celtics. In their last matchup, Boston turned the ball over 20 times, 16 of which were from Atlanta steals.

Atlanta likes to play fast, pushing the ball down the floor after they create turnovers. If the Celtics can force the Hawks into predominantly running half-court offense, they will be much easier to stop.

Trae Young is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and the Celtics should make it their mission to find him on every switch. In fact, the Celtics’ biggest struggle came when Young was out.

I can already see it. Jrue Holiday does one of his signature “I’m going to put my shoulder down and pile drive my defender into the hoop for a left-hand layup” moves and embarrasses Young.

Even if Holiday, or any other player driving on Young, doesn’t score, the forced collapse will create fantastic opportunities for the Celtics’ offense.

Consensus

The last time these teams faced off in the playoffs, the Celtics won 4-2 in a first round matchup. Per usual, Atlanta hung around and made a 2-0 series unfortunately tight in the end.

For a Boston team that wants to make a deep playoff run, it would be in their best interest to put the focus up, put the Hawks away quickly, and not waste any energy.

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Miami Heat (13.0%)

Boston and Miami are no strangers to each other over the past few years, but the feeling is different this time around. Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat are a shell of themselves, and “Heat culture” doesn’t seem to mean much anymore.

The Celtics are 3-1 against the Miami Heat this season, with two dominant blowout wins and one close loss after a long road trip. Although they aren’t very threatening, they would still be things to clean up in a potential matchup.

Keys to Victory:

• Control the Herro-Adebayo Pick and Roll

Miami won the last game largely due to Boston playing drop coverage on high pick and rolls. The philosophy was sound; running over the screen forces the worst shot in typically low percentage mid-range shots. However, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have their pick and roll down to a science.

Herro had his way, either picking up speed for a creative drive that usually ended in a foul, freezing the defense with a smooth pull-up, or throwing it back out to Bam. This was the engine that made the Heat hum.

Having Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis back will help the Celtics stop Miami’s action, but they’ll still need to communicate on switches and avoid past mistakes.

• Dictate the pace and limit turnovers

Erik Spoelstra is a fantastic coach, but he knows his team doesn’t have a great chance. His best option will be to try to drag the Celtics into long, drawn-out offensive possessions so the Heat can set up their defense.

The Heat may not be the same team of years past, but they have not lost their grind-it-out playstyle on defense. If the Celtics can push the ball down the court and avoid isolation-heavy offense at all costs, they can avoid this trap.

• Take care of business early

In the two blowout wins to start the season series, the Celtics put their foot down early against Miami. In the other two games, they let Miami build some early momentum. The last thing the Celtics want is for the Heat thinking they have a shot.

If Boston lets the Heat hang around, they’ll start believing — and that’s when Spoelstra’s squad becomes dangerous. Close the door before it opens.

Consensus

To be frank, there isn’t much to worry about with this Miami squad. Besides, Miami will probably tank their way out of a playoff spot. However, they are one of the best-coached teams in the league and certainly have unfavorable feelings towards the Celtics.

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Chicago Bulls (10.9%)

Chicago might be locked in the 10th seed again, but this year’s group has a bit more life. With Giddey, White, and rookie Matas Buzelis giving them a fresh look, there’s something to build on. Boston went 3-1 against them, including two comfortable 20+ point wins.

One loss came during Boston’s mid-season slump — poor shooting, technical fouls, and all-around frustration. But outside of that, the Celtics have largely cruised against Chicago.

Porzingis seems to love playing the Chicago Bulls, as he has averaged 24.3 points and 8.5 rebounds against them this season. Most recently, he had 34 points and 11 rebounds in one of his best displays of the season.

The Bulls don’t have anyone to bang with him on the inside and never seem to find a solution — look no further than his 8 consecutive points in the 2nd quarter of the December game.

Even if Porzingis isn’t doing damage from the block, Nikola Vucevic can’t keep up with him on the outside. Getting KP involved early will open everything up.

• Don’t die with the three

The Celtics have proven that they are willing to live and die by the three-point shot, but that is not necessary against the Bulls. If things turn cold, drives to the basket must be the answer.

On December 19th, the Celtics lost to the Bulls because they forced three-pointers up while they weren’t falling. Just two days later, they blew Chicago out of the water by forcing the ball into the paint. In that game, they won the points in the paint battle 60-38, and 32 of their 100 shots came directly at the cup.

Even if the three-ball is falling, the Celtics shouldn’t forget that the paint is open for the taking. A healthy balance inside and outside of the arc would lead to some blowouts.

• Don’t overthink it, give the ball to Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is averaging 31.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists against the Bulls this season. If you dropped his uncharacteristic 16-point performance in the latest matchup, his averages would be lurching closer to 40 points per game.

It’s pretty simple. The Bulls don’t have anyone capable of bothering Tatum. It’s pretty simple. Chicago has some of the worst wing depth in the entire league, and Jayson Tatum just so happens to be the best wing in the league.

Sometimes it’s just as easy as putting the ball in Big Deuce’s hands.

Consensus

The Bulls aren’t a real threat — but they aren’t the same stagnant team from past years, either. They’ve got young energy and a little confidence. Still, Boston should roll through this series in four or five games, especially if they keep it simple and lean on their stars.

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images