As the season winds down, it looks like Alexis Lafreniere’s future will again be a major talking point this summer. Following a productive first quarter of the season –16 points in 20 games, and a seven-year extension at $7.45 million AAV– Lafreniere’s play has mirrored that of a team unable to string together three consecutive victories. In a season where he was expected to continue his emergence as a true first-line winger, he has struggled to consistently impact games.
Around the trade deadline, it was common to see his name pop up in trade rumors and hypothetical trades built by fans. In late March, Arthur Staple reported that the Rangers will likely listen to offers for him this summer as Drury continues to rebuild the Rangers after an appalling, low-effort season. The rumors and poor play that mirrored the rest of the team only fuels speculation on Alexis Lafreniere’s future.
This is not the first time I have written about Alexis Lafreniere’s future. In both of my prior pieces mentioning him, I argued in favor of keeping him during low points in his career; 2022 after his healthy scratch, and 2023 following his no-show against the Devils when he was up for an extension. Spoiler alert: while I do think trading Lafreniere would be a good decision if he brings back an outstanding, cost-controlled 5v5 contributor or multiple good players, based on the offers I have seen out there, I am against trading him this summer.
Cap hit
When Laf was extended in October, I think most people were surprised by his AAV, and not because it was too high. The NHL has finally entered its rising cap era, with the cap expected to jump from $88 million to $113 million in three seasons, with a ceiling projection of $95.5 million next year. It is widely anticipated that in the summer of 2026, the league will have its first $20 million AAV player in Connor McDavid.
Lafreniere’s cap percentage will start at 7.8% next season and will decrease drastically throughout his tenure as the cap continues to rise (6.6% in 2028), and will carry him through the prime of his career. While our hopes of the 23-year-old forward developing into a consistent top-line forward may have taken a hit this year, he is still producing at a level consistent with second-line forwards. It is unlikely that you will be able to find a comparable aged player with comparable production willing to take less money than Laf, or with a team willing to move them.
The cap hit will impact Alexis Lafreniere’s future in New York, as similar players will likely come with a higher price tag.
Production
Laf’s production this season has been streaky, and on the surface, it would appear that he has failed to build on a 23/24 season that placed him 41st in 5v5 scoring among forwards and 39th in 5v5 scoring. However, while Lafreniere’s 5v5 scoring rank has taken a bit of a dip, at the time of writing he is 39th in the league in 5v5 scoring, producing a points-per-60 rate identical to last season (2 per 60) with a slightly higher assist rate (1.3 vs 1.2).
The caveat, and a major discussion point to Alexis Lafreniere’s future in New York, is that his goal scoring has dropped off this season due to a huge decrease in shots –down to 6.7 per 60 vs 9.2 per 60 last season. While Lafreniere’s decreased shooting can be attributed to his mercurial effort level, we cannot ignore the drop off of his most common center linemate, Vincent Trocheck. Trocheck went from one of the more effective chance creators in the NHL in 23/24 to a middling one this season.
This is also the lowest shooting percentage of Lafreniere’s career, more than two percentage points down from last season’s rate of 12.9%. There is no denying he has failed to build on last season’s superb production, but league scoring is down this year and the Rangers are on pace for nearly 30 fewer goals. He also does not get the PP1 time other players his age get when they have 5v5 scoring slumps. For Lafreniere, 5 years into his career he is still being forced to do all his damage at 5v5.
When discussing Alexis Lafrenire’s future, we can’t ignore how the Rangers have deployed him. He’s not perfect, but he also can’t do it all himself.
Alexis Lafreniere’s future tied to similar players who might struggle in his role
The strongest trade link we saw this winter, and one of the main reasons we are questioning Alexis Lafrenire’s future, was a deal involving JJ Peterka of the Buffalo Sabres. Peterka is a player I love and I think he would bring positive qualities that the Rangers lack. His gradual production increases indicate that he could push towards being a point-per-game player. I unequivocally like Peterka and would like him to be a Ranger.
But my concern revolves around a straight swap and the cost of extending Peterka. Peterka’s 5v5 production rate this season is better but comparable to Lafraniere’s –2.3 vs 2.0– with a career-high 15.6% shooting rate vs Lafreniere’s career-low. A return to his career average shooting percentage of 12.7% knocks 5 goals off his goal total this season and would put him at 21 goals, which is his expected total this season according to Moneypuck.
In contrast, a return to Laf’s career average shooting percentage of 13.7% would put him on…21 goals. Their assist totals are almost equal at even strength, but Peterka has 12 powerplay assists (and 18 powerplay points) compared to Lafreniere’s 2 (4 powerplay points).
This line of thinking is a bit reductive, but the point is to illustrate that the production difference between Lafreniere and Peterka is not as large as it appears on the surface, and could even be flipped next season if they were to swap places. I am well aware that criticism of Lafreniere’s play this season extends beyond inconsistent production, but Peterka will likely command an AAV greater than Lafreniere’s $7.45 million. It is not a guarantee that he is an upgrade even if I do think he looks like the better player right now.
Lafreniere also produced a playoff run for the ages last spring. It was arguably the best skater performance I have seen from a Ranger from the past two contending cores (12-17, 22-24). I understand the reluctance to hold onto that sample size, but we know he has that ability. That is not to say Peterka couldn’t do the same thing if he ever gets the chance, but it’s a point to chew on. This isn’t a slight on Peterka, it’s just noting Alexis Lafreniere’s future is tied to getting similar or better production for the cost, which Peterka may not bring.
I am honestly not optimistic about the future of this team. I do not believe in whatever plan there is from the front office. All the cap space opened up this season has been used already, and there is too much money tied up in old players with trade restrictions, and declining production. Lafreniere had a disappointing season. But unless the circumstances are perfect, he is far down the list of players that should be traded. If he is truly just a good second-line forward, I can accept that given the modest cap hit with a drastically increasing cap ceiling.
