19 thoughts as the Celtics begin their quest for Banner 19

It’s playoff time, baby.

Here are 19 thoughts as the Celtics try to go back-to-back.

1. Momentum matters.

I believe momentum matters heading into the playoffs. The Celtics have won five of six and 19 of 21 and are playing some of their best basketball of the year.

Sputtering to the finish line wouldn’t have ruined their chances in the playoffs, but I do think that finishing the regular season strong helps.

2. Don’t sleep on the Magic.

The Magic aren’t your typical 7-seed. They’ve dealt with injuries throughout the year and likely would have been the 4 or 5-seed if they were relatively healthy. They’re still missing some key guys, but Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are legit.

Orlando’s biggest strength is minimizing 3-point attempts for its opponents. The Celtics, of course, love to take 3’s, so that battle is something to monitor as the series progresses.

The Magic are well above average defensively and match up better with Boston than most teams. Don’t expect four blowouts.

3. Boston will take it in 5.

I’ve been going back and forth between Celtics and 5 and Celtics in 6, but I’ve decided to go with 5. Yes, Orlando has all those traits, but the talent gap is too significant for the Magic to steal two.

I think it’ll go about as expected, with the Celtics winning two at home, the teams splitting in Orlando and the Celtics finishing it off at home. I think two or three of the five games will be decently close and two or three will be lopsided.

4. Keep an eye on Jaylen Brown.

It’s fair to be a little bit concerned about Jaylen Brown’s knee, but I personally believe he’ll look essentially like himself.

Brown at 80 to 90 percent is better than most players at 100, but the Celtics need him at as close to 100 as possible to win it all.

He has a knack for playing through pain and making it hard to tell how he truly feels, but I’ll be watching him closely Sunday to see how he’s moving around.

5. Luke Kornet: man of the people.

Luke Kornet has always been highly regarded around these parts, but he’s emerged as a true fan favorite this season.

I think he’ll help negate some of Orlando’s length, and he should play a key role in the later series as well. The Kornet-Tatum pairing is lethal, and overall, he’s just a very solid, fundamentally sound player who approaches the game the right way.

If you’re a diehard fan, you’ve seen this all year. If you’re a casual fan who starts watching closely in the playoffs, first of all, shame on you. Secondly, you’ll like what you see from Kornet.

6. Jayson Tatum’s shooting splits should go up.

Tatum was masterful in so many ways during the title run – rebounding, passing, defense, game management, hustle, heart, etc.

But, he shot just 42.7 percent from the floor and 28.3 percent from 3-point range. I would be shocked if those numbers were that low again, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up being significantly higher.

Somewhere around 45 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3 feels realistic.

7. Jrue Holiday is the X-factor.

In 47 wins this year, Jrue Holiday averaged 12 points per game and shot 47.8 percent from the floor, 40.9 percent from 3 and 92.3 percent from the line.

In 15 losses, those numbers dipped considerably to 8.1 points, 34 percent from the field, 18.4 percent from 3 and 83.3 percent from the line. To call that a major drop-off would be an understatement. Of course, he contributes in many other ways, but it’s intriguing nonetheless.

The Celtics are great even when Holiday is just OK as a scorer. When he’s more aggressive and efficient in the process, they’re often unbeatable.

8. There’s a similar pattern for Sam Hauser.

Obviously most players’ stats are going to be worse in losses, but that trend is also particularly illuminating for Sam Hauser.

In wins: 9.9 points, 47.5 percent from the floor and 43.8 percent from 3. In losses: 4.8 points, 35.5 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from distance. Keep an eye on his shooting as a barometer for the team’s success.

For reference, Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis and have similar stats in wins and losses, while Jaylen Brown actually averages more points per game in losses than wins (which is interesting in its own right).

9. You’ve gotta love the tip times.

It almost looks like a misprint. A 3:30 p.m. Game 1 and 7 p.m. Games 2, 3 and 4 is glorious. They’ll get later and later as it goes, but what a start.

10. The Knicks will make it a series.

I know, I know, the Celtics swept the Knicks in the regular season and are a better team. That’s true. But I believe the Knicks will rise to the challenge and make it a competitive series.

Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are a dynamic duo, and Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart all play their roles well. The Celtics’ main advantages are overall talent, shooting and depth, so I think those will be the difference.

Celtics in 6.

11. The Celtics may be even more potent this year.

If you could simulate a series between last year’s Celtics and this year’s Celtics (weird concept, I know), I think this year’s team would win in seven.

Each player has improved slightly, the chemistry is even better and Porzingis is moving well and a major weapon. I think this year’s team is slightly better. As long as this year’s team is just as hungry, there’s no reason it can’t be even better.

12. But, the path will be harder than last year.

With that said, don’t expect another cakewalk. A 16-3 record in the playoffs is truly preposterous. Yes, their opponents were shorthanded, but that’s ridiculous no matter how you slice it.

I think there’s a pretty good chance every series outside of the first one goes at least six.

13. Celtics-Cavaliers could be an all-timer.

The Celtics-Cavaliers series in 2008 is still my favorite of all-time. I don’t think this one will quite reach that level, but I think it’ll be close.

The Cavs are absolutely legit. Donovan Mitchell is a bad, bad man, and the supporting cast is quite solid. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the De’Andre Hunter acquisition. No one can stop Tatum entirely, but he’s more equipped to hold him in check than most.

I think the Celtics take it in 6 or 7 after an epic battle. I’ll go 7.

14. Anything could happen in the Wild West.

The Thunder are the favorites and have the best chance, but the Lakers and Warriors are both extremely dangerous.

Could this be the year the Clippers finally make a run (the one time I don’t pick them, naturally)? I don’t fully trust the Rockets, but Ime Udoka has them playing some inspired basketball. The Timberwolves can’t be counted out, either.

With that said, the Thunder have been historically dominant. It would be unwise to pick against them. I’ll take the Thunder over the Lakers in 6.

15. I keep thinking about that 2010 Finals.

The 2008 championship will always have its place in Celtics lore, but the reality is, that core should have won a second.

Injuries were a factor, but the Celtics were still the better team in the 2010 Finals. To me, that triumph is Kobe Bryant’s greatest. That was the one that got away for Boston. This current team has already made its mark, but it has a chance to be an historically great group with a second title.

If the Celtics get this one, then it’s time to start talking about a potential dynasty in the years to come.

16. Enjoy these couple months.

I always get a little sad when March Madness ends, then I remember the NBA Playoffs are just around the corner and immediately get excited again. There’s nothing like it.

17. Celtics-Thunder would be a war.

I do believe, after everything is sorted out, that it will be Celtics-Thunder for the title. The Thunder are physical, versatile, well coached and hungry. They’ll be a more than worthy opponent.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing on another level right now, and it would be up to Holiday, White and Brown to keep him in check. I’m always amazed by players like that, where you know what’s coming but still can’t stop it.

18. Tatum will win Finals MVP.

Humans are unique, because we’re able to compartmentalize two contrasting emotions and feel them both deeply.

I believe Tatum is authentically happy for Brown that Brown won Finals MVP last year. I also believe that on an even deeper level, Tatum is salty it wasn’t him. Nothing against Brown, and it’s not a criticism of Tatum. It’s just human nature.

I think Tatum will have something special in store in the Finals and fortify his status as an all-time NBA great (not that he isn’t already) with a truly dazzling performance.

19. They finish the job again.

The Celtics beat the Thunder in 6 and repeat as NBA champions. They become the first team to go back-to-back since the Warriors in 2017-18, officially establish themselves one of the best cores in NBA history and hoist Banner 19 at TD Garden.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder or Cavaliers won it, but I think the Celtics ultimately find a way in both series and finish on top.