Euro 2025 kicks off on July 2, when 16 women’s teams will have the chance to get their hands on the iconic trophy. But how likely is each one to win the tournament?
The question seems simple enough, but it mixes in all manner of elements: Star quality, squad depth, national confidence, weaknesses, tactical approaches, injuries and — perhaps most importantly for those below the top eight — bracketology, too. Some nations have landed in really sweet spots with regard to a potential pathway into the quarterfinals (or beyond).
Who are the favorites? Who’s got no chance? Now the UEFA Women’s Nations League group stage is over, we’ve ranked all 16 teams that will travel to Switzerland this summer. Let’s dive in.
The lower nations on the list performed as expected in the Nations League i.e. poorly. So there’s no change in the rankings we did in April until No. 10.
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It has been a disappointing run for Iceland, who have been climbing the FIFA World Ranking in recent years, but have now dropped off in competitive matches. Indeed, they haven’t won since February 2024. Only gaining four points in the Nations League, they had an opportunity to gain some insight into their Euro 2025 group stage opponents — they face Switzerland and Norway again in Group A — but drew with both.
A big 4-1 win over Wales on the final Nations League matchday has given them some momentum and games against Belgium and Portugal will be key to their hopes of progressing from the group stage, as they are very unlikely to upset Spain.
Despite wins over Portugal and England in the Nations League, Belgium still feel like a tough horse to back. They have put in some great performances, like the 3-2 win over England, but have also succumbed to some heavy losses: 5-0 to the Lionesses, then 5-1 to Spain. Maybe the focus for this summer should be about gaining consistency to try to sort out some of their vulnerabilities. They’ll also see matches vs. Italy and Portugal as key to their hopes.
Though most of their recent Nations League matches ended in narrow margins (1-0 win over Switzerland, 1-1 draw with Iceland, 2-0 loss to France), Norway face two of their recent opponents (Switzerland and Iceland) plus Finland, which will give them a boost. After falling short at recent tournaments, confidence will be high that if they play to their gameplan they could top the group.
After falling short during the Euro 2025 qualifiers and having to battle it out in the playoffs, reaching the Nations League finals (after topping a group of Italy, Denmark and Wales) has given them a confidence boost ahead of this summer’s tournament. While they’re still far from their former glory, Sweden are slowly gaining momentum.
A mixed bag in the Nations League saw them draw 2-2 with Germany before losing 4-0 in the return, while beating Austria twice. A 1-1 draw vs. Scotland in their final game suggests that things might not be easy for them this summer, and they are still waiting on news of Vivianne Miedema‘s fitness.
The shock retirement of goalkeeper Mary Earps leaves the squad with a highly inexperienced goalkeeper unit and, with the loss of veteran Fran Kirby (who retired after being told she wasn’t in the Euro 2025 squad) and Millie Bright (who said she couldn’t give 100% mentally or physically), the defending champions have dropped some major tournament experience. Losing out on a place in the Nations League finals after a 2-1 defeat to Spain also raises questions over the Lionesses’ place among Europe’s top pedigree.
A clean sweep of six wins in six games (the only League A team to have a 100% record) in the Nations League will be a boost. But it’s not France’s ability to beat lower-ranked teams that’s their issue, it’s beating teams that are categorically better than them.
Indeed, the loss of veterans Wendie Renard and Eugénie Le Sommer from the most-recent squad — and the fact they haven’t faced or beaten a team ranked higher than them in sixth months — does not bode well. Still, reaching the Nations League finals is a positive step for a team who have underperformed in every tournament they’ve been in.
Reaching the Nations League finals for a second time running, with five wins and a draw, is good news ahead of a summer that offers the former winners a chance at redemption. They’ll also be pleased to have scored the most goald (26) in the Nations League, with Lea Schüller and Selina Cerci leading the way.
Despite a loss to England in February, Spain reclaimed bragging rights (and a place in the Nations League finals) with a 2-1 win in Barcelona on Tuesday. Though there was doubt that they would reach the finals, Spain proved why they are world champions and are the team to beat. They’ll surely hammer the smaller teams and likely set up a semifinal against the winners of Group D: England, France, or Netherlands.
