Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals is set to tip off on Thursday evening, and history shows that it might be the most pivotal game in the series.
Throughout the history of the NBA and its direct predecessors, the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the championship 55 times in 78 contested series, or 70.5%. Since 1990, that percentage has only increased, as 26 of the last 35 NBA champions won Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Superstars Change Things
In that span, teams that lost Game 1 and still won the championship include the 2000 Lakers, all three Miami Heat championship teams (2006, 2012, 2013), the 2016 Cavaliers, the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks and the 2022 Golden State Warriors. Notice a pattern? Those trusty statistics get a lot more shaky when you add all-time talent (Shaq/Kobe, Shaq/Wade, Lebron, Curry, Giannis) on one side of the mix.
In fact, LeBron James is 1-3 in Game 1s in the four NBA Finals series in which he led the winning team. Shaquille O’Neal is just 2-2 in the first game of his four successful trips to the NBA Finals, the same as his former teammate Dwayne Wade in his four title-winning appearances. Again, these are all talents that are among the greatest to grace the basketball court, so there’s a reason they are an exception to the <70% rule.
Does Shai Gilgeous-Alexander qualify as such? Most likely. So, maybe don’t hit the panic button if Oklahoma City loses Game 1.
It’s Been Done Before
If Indiana can come out and steal Game 1 at OKC’s Paycom Center in front of that raucous crowd as substantial 5-to-1 underdogs, history shows the Pacers might be able to steal the series. Just ask the 2004 Pistons, who stole Game 1 over the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers as…you guessed it, 5-to-1 underdogs. Both the 2004 Lakers and the 2025 Thunder enter the NBA Finals as -700, but as Detroit showed 21 years ago, you’ve got to win Game 1 to get anywhere.
The Pacers could also win Game 1 and go the way of the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers, who entered those Finals with the Vegas equivalent of a snowball’s chance and hell and got gentleman’s swept, but still gave us one of the great NBA Finals games ever in their heroic victory in the first game headlined by Allen Iverson’s 48-points and his demoralizing step over Tyronn Lue. Ironically, Lue was the coach of those 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers who lost Game 1 of the Finals before eventually wiping out a 3-1 deficit to beat the Golden State Warriors.
In Conclusion
Game 1 matters. Probably more than any other game in the series when you really dive into the numbers. But like most circumstances in sports, when you have a talent like SGA who is poised to become just the fourth player since the turn of the millennium to win MVP, the NBA Finals and NBA Finals MVP in the same season, you can all but throw those statistics out the window.
If Oklahoma City wins Game 1, it sets them up nicely for a sweep or a gentleman’s sweep. If Indiana wins Game 1, it certainly helps with their historically daunting odds, but perhaps the comfort of knowing that over 70% of Game 1 winners went on to win the Finals doesn’t exactly apply here.
