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After being picked to finish second in the Big Ten in the preseason, Indiana’s 10-3 start and 1-1 mark in conference play has left the Hoosiers with work to do to return to the NCAA tournament.
The good news for Mike Woodson and his team? There will be plenty of opportunities to build a tournament-worthy resume.
The Hoosiers’ metrics are currently underwhelming. Indiana is ranked 65th in the NET, 63rd in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), 42nd in KenPom and 56th in KenPom and Bart Torvik.
Indiana is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 1-2 in Quad 2. Its lone win in that category was against Providence in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Torvik’s “TourneyCast” projections show Indiana a 13.4 percent chance to make a March Madness appearance as of Tuesday morning.
If Indiana misses the tournament for a second straight season, it won’t be due to a lack of opportunity for games against quality opponents.
Of Indiana’s remaining 18 regular-season games, 13 are currently projected to be Quad 1, three are projected to be Quad 2 and two are projected to be Quad 3.
Several of Indiana’s projected Quad 1 opportunities will be played at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where the Hoosiers are currently 9-0.
In January, Indiana will host Illinois and Maryland, two programs firmly inside the top 30 of the NET rankings. In February, the Hoosiers will play UCLA and Michigan in Bloomington. The Bruins and Wolverines currently sit in the top 16 nationally in the NET.
And IU’s regular-season finale is against Ohio State on March 8. The Buckeyes are currently No. 23 in the NET. In addition to those games, Indiana will host Penn State and Purdue in February for what are projected to be Quad 2 games. The Nittany Lions are 32nd in the NET and the Boilermakers are 37th.
The Hoosiers also have nine remaining Big Ten road games, eight of which are currently projected to be Quad 1 games.
The immediate focus, however, is on IU’s next opponent and avoiding what would be considered a “bad” loss for the first time this season.
Rutgers, currently ranked No. 82 in the NET rankings, plays the Hoosiers Thursday night in Bloomington. The Scarlet Knights are currently a Quad 3 opponent.
“Every game is important moving forward,” Woodson said Sunday following IU’s win against Winthrop. “Can’t look back. Every game is important. We’ve got Rutgers coming in. That’s my only focus right now.”
Indiana hosts USC on Jan. 8 the following week. Based on today’s rankings, the Trojans, currently No. 93 in the NET, are also a Quad 3 opponent.
Despite the computer numbers and projections showing Indiana with a difficult path to the NCAA tournament, one of the team’s captains said Sunday that things will take care of themselves if the Hoosiers can do one thing: win.
“You’ve just got to focus on the next game,” Myles Rice said Sunday. “I mean, we can look at all the stats and the numbers can tell you everything.
“But at the end of the day, if you win the game that’s in front of you and you keep winning, that solves 99.9 percent of the problems. For us, it’s just taking it day-by-day. We’re not getting too caught up in the metrics, and like I said, we’ve got Rutgers next, and they are a really good team. Get back into Big Ten play and just focus on them.”
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