Photo: Expected Buffalo
With the focus turning to the NHL offseason for the Washington Capitals, the team needs to improve its defense after their lack of depth at the position was exposed when they got swept by the New York Rangers in the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Nick Jensen and Rasmus Sandin both missed three games and Trevor Van Riemsdyk another due to injury. John Carlson finished the regular season with an NHL-high 25:53 average ice time-per-game, further demonstrating Washington’s thin blueline.
Before examining options, here is a look at Washington’s projected top-seven on defense for opening night of the 2024-25 season with the players available to them right now:
Martin Fehervary — John Carlson
Rasmus Sandin — Nick Jensen
Alexander Alexeyev — Van Riemsdyk
Extra: Ethan Bear (right-handed)
The team finished the regular season with an average of 3.07 goals-against per game (tied with the Colorado Avalanche for the NHL average), .79 penalty-killing efficiency (19th), 30.5 shots-against per game (tied with Boston Bruins for 21st), 177.49 expected goals-against at five-on-five (25th), 1844 scoring chances-against at five-on-five (21st), and 102 high-danger goals-against at five-on-five (tied with New Jersey Devils for 27th).
Washington could use another left-handed and right-handed defensemen in their top-six corps.
NoVa Caps looks at the top five options for defensive help this offseason:
5. LHD/RHD Oliver Kylington, pending UFA
The 26-year-old posted three goals, eight points, a .4807 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .4951 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, and .5048 five-on-five scoring-for percentage while averaging 17:15 per game (seventh among Calgary Flames defenseman), including 34 seconds while shorthanded (ninth), in 33 outings. The team sold off Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov, and Noah Hanifin on the backend mid-season, and finished a game below .500, explaining Kylington’s low Corsi and expected goals values.
Just two seasons ago, Kylington tallied nine goals, 31 points, and a .5498 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage (30th among all NHL defenseman to play at least 500 minutes) while averaging 18:10 per game (fourth), including 1:04 on the power play (12th among Calgary skaters).
Kylington did not play in the 2022-23 season and did not play until January 25 this past season after taking a leave of absence for mental health reasons, which also played a part of his off year in his underlying statics. With that being the case, Kylington will likely cost near league-minimum and could make for a very good value signing for Washington.
4. RHD Alexandre Carrier, pending UFA
In 73 games for the Nashville Predators, the 27-year-old notched four goals, 20 points, a .5126 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .5114 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, and .5036 five-on-five scoring-for percentage. Carrier finished the season averaging 18:48 per game (third among Nashville defensemen), including 2:07 on the penalty kill (third).
Carrier has .5066 Corsi-for, .5201 expected goals-for, and .5048 scoring chances-for percentages in 217 career regular-season games, where he has averaged 19:19 per game (including 2:16 on the penalty kill).
Carrier could cost between $3-4 million against the NHL salary cap on a four or five-year contract.
3. RHD Jakob Chychrun (Ottawa Senators), one year at $4.6 million left on contract (10-team no-trade clause)
Washington has poked around the 26-year-old for the past three seasons whether Chychrun, who earned 14 goals, 41 points, a -30 rating, .5002 five-on-five Corsi-for, .4755 expected goals-for, and .4858 scoring chances-for percentages in 82 games during 2023-24, has been on the Arizona Coyotes or Ottawa and will likely kick tires again next month. This past season, he averaged 22:23 per game (third among Senators defensemen), including 2:41 on the power play (second).
Chychrun, the 16th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, led all NHL defensemen in goals (18) during the truncated 2020-21 season when he set a career-high in points (41), which he tied this season, in 56 games. He has averaged 21:18 per game over his eight-season NHL career, including 2:09 on the power play and 49 seconds on the penalty kill.
At five-on-five, Chychrun has a .49 Corsi-for, .4808 expected goals-for, and .4691 scoring chances-for percentages in his career but has been on rebuilding teams throughout his career.
Ottawa paid Arizona a first- and two second-round picks for Chychrun just 14 months ago and the price to acquire him could be similar this time around.
2. LHD Philipp Broberg (Edmonton Oilers), pending RFA
The 22-year-old eighth overall pick in 2019 played just 12 NHL games this past season and Edmonton already has five blueliners under contract for next year, so Broberg may be worth calling on. He played just two games after American Thanksgiving, which both occurred when Edmonton already had the second seed in the Pacific Division secured, and has not appeared in a postseason game four dates into their first-round series.
While averaging only 11:37 per game (eighth among Oilers defensemen), 1:10 of which coming on the penalty kill (fifth), Broberg recorded two helpers, a .4953 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .5457 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, and .5182 five-on-five scoring-for percentage. He also posted five goals and 38 points in 49 AHL games.
Broberg has played just 81 NHL games over three seasons and could cost around a second-round pick and another middle-round pick to acquire him via trade but less than $1 million to get him under contract for next season. Washington also could offer tender an offersheet to Broberg but would have to overpay to an extent to convince Edmonton not to qualify him, which is probably not worth it.
1. RHD Matt Roy, pending UFA
The 29-year-old posted five goals, 25 points, a .5363 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .5557 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, and .5354 five-on-five scoring chances-for percentage in 81 contests, where he averaged 20:54 per game (second among Los Angeles Kings defensemen), including a team-leading 2:51 on a penalty kill that ranked second in the NHL with an .846 efficiency during the regular season.
In 369 career regular-season games, Roy has .5151 Corsi-for, .5127 expected goals-for, and .5032 scoring chances-for percentages, which have all improved in every season since the Kings’ rebuild ended after the 2020-21 campaign. Roy set career-highs in goals (nine), points (26), and games played (82) in 2022-23.
Roy is expected to cost around $4 million per season on his next contract, which could last around three-to-four years.
By Harrison Brown
