After sitting on their hands for the past week as the NBA Play-In Tournament unfolded, the Boston Celtics have finally learned their first round opponent is none other than the Miami Heat…again. While a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals was always a possibility, it’s beginning to feel near-inevitable now in their fourth playoff meeting in the last five years. Death, taxes, and Celtics-Heat playoff matchups on a near-annual basis; time is, in fact, a flat circle.
All jokes aside, a matchup against the Miami Heat now is vastly different than last season, as the rivalry between the two franchises has continued to evolve over the years. Following a gut-wrenching Game 7 loss to Miami last postseason, Boston went through major shakeups in the offseason that ended with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in Celtic green. The head-to-head between Porzingis and Bam Adebayo may be the matchup everybody will be watching, but it very well may be the backcourts that sway this series in the Celtics’ favor.
Kristaps Porzingis on the Celtics facing the Heat:
“I was hoping it would be Miami. My brother’s there, my family’s there…should be a good series.”
— Bobby Krivitsky (@BobbyKrivitsky) April 20, 2024
In addition to their free agent departures, the Heat traded Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo during the season while adding Terry Rozier, Patty Mills and Delon Wright to their roster. Rozier hasn’t suited up since April 7th due to a neck injury, and with Jimmy Butler now sidelined for multiple weeks with an MCL injury, Miami is relying heavily on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo to keep their offense afloat.
For Boston, moving on from Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon paid dividends, adding Holiday to take on point guard duties and clearing the way for a career season from Derrick White. Payton Pritchard reclaimed his role as the first guard off the bench, and after inking a long-term extension, put any trade talks to bed. Despite the big changes, the Celtics exceeded expectations with a dominant 64-win season and locking up top seed while load managing their stars.
When it comes to their regular season matchups against Miami, Boston took the season series 3-0 and did so comfortably. In terms of backcourt, the Celtics guards had a league-best plus-minus against the Heat (+10.1) and trailed only the Oklahoma City Thunder in backcourt points against Miami. By comparison, the Heat backcourt ranked 17th against the Celtics in plus-minus (-6.7) and produced just 43 points per game over their three contests.
If we go back to the start of February, essentially the second half of the season, you already know the NBA’s #1 offense belongs to the Celtics.
What you might not know is that the league’s #1 defense in that span…belongs to the Heat. pic.twitter.com/RyLdscw460
— Sean Grande (@SeanGrandePBP) April 21, 2024
Between losing players and moving on from some key pieces, the Heat are forced into a Herro-centric backcourt that relies heavily on the sharpshooter to serve as a creator for others. It’s also forced veteran Delon Wright into a larger role since being waived by the Washington Wizards.
Either way you slice it, the Celtics hold the advantage in backcourt matchup, especially if Scary Terry doesn’t make a healthy return. Still, the Miami Heat cannot and should not be taken lightly, and the Boston Celtics won’t be apt to. These two teams have history, and even with roster changes, Boston and Miami know what to expect.
Without Jimmy Butler, Miami will play tougher and bear down on the other end, slogging the pace down to a crawl and break out the zone defense. Porzingis will be crucial at going over the top of the zone to force coverage, and Boston’s backcourt will have to slash to the hoop to open up the perimeter for drive-and-kick opportunities.
Something to monitor –
Jrue Holiday shot 47% from 3 in the 8 games prior to his March 17th injury (44.4% in the 60 games prior), just 31.7% in the 8 games he played since returning
— I Always Keep A Can Of Tuna On Me (@SnottieDrippen) April 20, 2024
The biggest concern from Boston’s perspective is how healthy their own backcourt will be after some late-season scares. Jrue Holiday’s shooting numbers dipped since his right shoulder strain back in March, and Derrick White sprained his left ankle in the final weeks of the Celtics’ regular season.
Boston has avoided major injuries, and thanks to their early efforts in the standings, they’ve been able to rest their starters intermittently to preserve themselves for the postseason. This is the stage of the year where the intensity is at the highest, and endurance is crucial to a deep playoff run. The Celtics are quite literally built for this, and in a familiar matchup against an undermanned Miami squad, you cannot get complacent. It’s time to sweep the leg.
The Boston Celtics will be opening up their series against the Miami Heat at TD Garden today, 1 pm EST.
