We’ve reached the end of the road after another exciting Champ Week. For a variety of reasons, there could well be some surprises on the last two teams in the field. I have Vanderbilt and San Diego State in Dayton as I did on Saturday morning, but both of those would be surprise omissions. That takes us to the six teams I considered for those last two spots (in alphabetical order):
• Boise State: The Broncos made it to the MWC final but were blown out by red-hot Colorado State in a game where the final score wasn’t reflective of how lopsided it truly was. Boise has a pair of great non-con wins over Saint Mary’s and Clemson, while all team sheet metrics hover right around 50th. The Broncos are the only team in this mix with a loss in both Q3 and Q4. Unrelated to any of that, the general lack of respect for the Mountain West last year makes me question whether the league could end up with five teams in this year.
• Indiana: IU has just two victories against the field, but that road win at Michigan State looms large. They have no losses outside of Q1, and they have three Q1 road victories, which the committee usually likes. The result-based metric average is strong thanks to a really strong KPI, but you can make the argument that the Hoosiers had plenty of chances to rack up more quality wins and couldn’t get it done.
• North Carolina: This is the one I’d be most upset to see in the field. The metrics are solid thanks to a number of close losses, but I struggle to find the logic to include a team with a 1-12 mark in Q1 with only one win against the field to go with a Q3 loss. Given that the UNC athletic director is the committee chair, there would be conspiracy theories abound if the Heels are dancing.
• Texas: Historically, teams with A) 15 losses and B) a record in non-Q4 games that is three games under .500 don’t get in. However, it’s hard to tell how useful that history is as we enter the world of today’s mega conferences. Seven Q1 victories stands out compared to other bubble teams and would be the reason the Longhorns make the field. However, the committee has also typically punished teams that didn’t schedule well in the non-conference, which may well be Texas.
• UC Irvine: With such a blah group of profiles right around the cut line, this is the kind of team I’d personally love to see get a shot. They have 18 wins away from home and finished second to a tough UC San Diego team in the Big West. As much as I’d love to see it, the metrics just don’t support it, particularly given the margin of the Big West title game last night.
• Xavier: The Muskies are potentially a happy medium between IU and UNC. They have three wins against the field but are 1-9 in Q1. They do have a pair of Q2 losses, but both came on the road against power conference teams. The predictive metrics are better than IU, while their marquee road win at Marquette is solid albeit not as impressive as winning in East Lansing.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-364 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-364 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-364
The projections below are based on all games played through March 15th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included my last four in and first four out.
| ATLANTA (SOUTH) | NEWARK (EAST) | |
| Lexington – March 20/22 | Raleigh – March 21/23 | |
| 1) Auburn | 1) Duke* | |
| 16) Alabama St.* / St. Francis* | 16) American* / Mount St. Mary’s* | |
| 8) Creighton |
8) Marquette | |
| 9) Baylor | 9) Mississippi St. | |
| Denver – March 20/22 | Seattle – March 21/23 | |
| 5) Clemson |
5) Oregon | |
| 12) Indiana / Xavier | 12) Colorado St.* |
|
| 4) Texas A&M | 4) Arizona | |
| 13) Yale* | 13) Akron* | |
| Denver – March 20/22 | Milwaukee – March 21/23 | |
| 6) UCLA | 6) Louisville | |
| 11) UC San Diego* | 11) San Diego St. / Vanderbilt | |
| 3) Iowa St. | 3) Wisconsin | |
| 14) Montana* | 14) Lipscomb* | |
| Cleveland – March 21/23 | Cleveland – March 21/23 | |
| 7) Missouri | 7) Kansas | |
| 10) Utah St. | 10) Arkansas | |
| 2) Michigan St. | 2) Alabama | |
| 15) Wofford* |
15) Bryant* | |
| SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) | INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST) | |
| Raleigh – March 21/23 | Wichita – March 20/22 | |
| 1) Florida* | 1) Houston* | |
| 16) Norfolk St.* | 16) SIU-Edwardsville* | |
| 8) Connecticut | 8) Memphis* | |
| 9) New Mexico | 9) Georgia | |
| Seattle – March 21/23 | Providence – March 20/22 | |
| 5) Ole Miss | 5) Purdue | |
| 12) McNeese* | 12) Liberty* | |
| 4) Michigan* | 4) Maryland | |
| 13) Grand Canyon* | 13) High Point* | |
| Wichita – March 20/22 | Milwaukee – March 21/23 | |
| 6) BYU | 6) Illinois | |
| 11) VCU* |
11) West Virginia | |
| 3) Texas Tech | 3) Kentucky | |
| 14) Troy* | 14) UNC-Wilmington* | |
| Providence – March 20/22 | Lexington – March 20/22 | |
| 7) Gonzaga* | 7) Saint Mary’s | |
| 10) Drake* | 10) Oklahoma | |
| 2) St. John’s* | 2) Tennessee | |
| 15) Omaha* | 15) Robert Morris* |
Last Four In:
Vanderbilt
San Diego State
Xavier
Indiana
First Four Out:
Texas
Boise State
North Carolina
UC Irvine
Conference Breakdown:
SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida*, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan*, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston*, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s*, Xavier
Mountain West (4): Colorado State*, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (3): Clemson, Duke*, Louisville
West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s
American: Memphis*
Atlantic 10: VCU*
America East: Bryant*
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb*
Big Sky: Montana*
Big South: High Point*
Big West: UC San Diego*
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*
Conference USA: Liberty*
Horizon: Robert Morris*
Ivy: Yale*
MAAC: Mount St. Mary’s*
MAC: Akron*
MEAC: Norfolk State*
Missouri Valley: Drake*
Northeast: Saint Francis*
Ohio Valley: SIU-Edwardsville*
Patriot: American*
Southern: Wofford*
Southland: McNeese*
SWAC: Alabama State*
Summit: Omaha*
Sun Belt: Troy*
WAC: Grand Canyon*
* – Automatic Bid
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
Category: Bracketology
Filed to: 2024-2025 Bracketology
