Defending Doncic and Irving, attacking them on offense, and a Finals prediction

He should be here soon. A delightful mix of excitement and anticipation washes over me, followed quickly by a slight tinge of embarrassment due to the amount of both.

You’re a grown man Magnum, pull it together. I tuck my overlarge green button down into my too tight brown slacks, frowning as it billows around the waist. I look like a damn pistachio muffin. I scan my office for alternates and come up empty. I tap my head to reassure myself my herringbone fedora still rests comfortably. It does.

I walk behind my aging oak desk and ease myself into my office chair. The chair gives its trademark squeak as I gently lean back, and then, I hear the knock.

I scan the door and see a blurry figure obstructed by my “Richard Magnum, B.I.” sign on the other side of my obscured glass window. He’s here.

“Come in,” I shout with what I hope is a welcoming beckon.

“Rick, it’s a pleasure.” He enters with a wry smile and shuts the door alarmingly hard, belying his midwestern haircut and simple physique, which is covered by his traditional white polo and black pants. The man oozed Indiana despite his many years in Boston. A loud bang follows the closing door.

I notice my newly framed degree, hanging next to the door, has clattered to the ground. “Rick, I’m so gosh darn sorry.” His tone is genuinely apologetic.

“It’s no problem, Mr. President. It’s great to see you again.” Here’s one client where that wasn’t a lie.

He bends down to scoop up the degree, scanning its contents. “Dartmouth? Pretty impressive.”

“Yeah, well… UMass Dartmouth, but it’s still a good school,” I sheepishly retort. I see the fast earned respect slowly seep away. He moves on quickly.

“Rick, I need you, and this one is important.”

“More important than whether Sam Hauser can do anything other than shoot?,” I ask as the mystery raises my excitement.

“Yes, although barely. I need to know whether the Celtics are going to win the NBA Finals and in how many games.”

“You want me to answer the ultimate question.” I lean back in my chair for dramatic effect. It squeaks, ruining the moment.

“That’s right, can you do it?”

“I’m Rick Magnum, B.I. Of course I can do it, but for this one, I might need some help. I’m going to make a call to an old friend: Freethroat.”

“Who is that?”

“He’s my analytics informant, a master of numbers, and a huge fan of The Town.”

My mention of The Town knocks the usually unflappable President off balance. “The movie?” He asks with genuine confusion.

“Yes. He brings it up a lot. Nobody really knows why.”

Later that night

I amble out of my gray Cadillac Cimarron and march towards the sodium lamp lit basketball court. I can see Freethroat at the foul line, gingerly shooting while an impossibly tall and gangly man with a buzzcut rebounds for him. Freethroat is wearing a black Celtics hoody with the hood pulled on tight. His blue shorts are trimmed with gold and have a small gold W that’s sitting directly on top of a V on the bottom of the sides.

Freethroat speaks first. “You’re late. You know I expect punctuality.”

“I knew you needed work on your free throws.” He turns to face me as I stop around the nail on the court. He’s not smiling.

“Funny.” Something in his demeanor tells me he doesn’t think it’s funny. “I’ve got everything you need. Here’s the first of the playoff stats you asked for.” He tosses me a laminated sheet of paper. I clumsily catch it and hold on, mystified about where he was storing it.

I start thinking out loud.

“They are the definition of a two-star team. Huge minutes and huge usage from Luka and Kyrie. Both are obviously extremely talented, but Luka has been pretty turnover happy at almost four a game in the postseason. Washington is pretty clearly their 3rd most important player. 3rd in minutes, 3rd in scoring, and 3rd in rebounds per game.”

“He and Jones are both solid defenders that take turns guarding the other team’s best player. While Washington has a more diverse offensive game, both are solid 3-point shooters, which keeps the floor spaced for their two stars to run pick-and-roll,” Freethroat astutely adds. “And man, do they like to run pick-and-roll.”

His phrasing grabs my attention, but it’s too late. A laminated sheet of paper cracks into my fedora, almost dislodging it entirely. I adjust my hat and look at the paper. The stats are clearly from Synergy and are for the entire NBA Playoffs.

“Flip it over,” he directs me. It’s not a request.

“Over 50% of Luka’s offense is pick-and-rolls, and nearly 50% of Irving’s. That matches the eye test certainly,” I mumble to myself. “Where else do they get their offe—”

Before I finish the sentence, another laminated paper is hurtling towards me. This one, I’m prepared for and catch easily.

I scan the page, intently absorbing the information. Nothing too surprising here. Spot ups often come as a result of a pick-and-roll or an isolation. They like to get out in transition, but nothing like Boston’s previous opponent. The isolation rate isn’t surprising either given how ball dominant Irving and Doncic are.

“Thanks, this is extremely helpful, but one more request: what about the possession battle?”

“One step ahead of you,” he says with a sinister smile and aims a nod to the man under the basket. A laminated page hits me in the side of the head, thrown from his gangly companion.

“Nice catch,” he smirks, the words colored by a gentle Eastern European accent. I scoop the laminated sheet up in manner that I believe conveys the appropriate level of annoyance.

Two things jump out here. You can turn Dallas over, especially Doncic, and they foul way more than the Celtics. The problem is that the Cs are somewhere between average and below average at both forcing turnovers and drawing fouls. Will be interesting to see whether Dallas’ proclivity for both wins out or not. Otherwise, both teams rebound the ball well, force turnovers at the exact same rate, and are pretty close in efficiency.

“Oh, and one more for the road, since you, stupidly, haven’t asked about defense yet,” Freethroat chimes in. I can’t stop a gentle smile creeping onto my face, prepared for another assault by laminate. This time, though, he hands me the sheet.

“What am I looking at here?,” I ask.

“It’s opponent shooting by zone, attempts and FG%. Too complicated for you?”

“I think I can figure it out but thank you for that.”

Celtics do an excellent job of limiting attempts at the rim, driving teams to floater range and the mid-range. They also basically do not allow corner 3s, instead daring teams to beat them from above the break. Dallas, meanwhile, is an elite rim protecting team, and that extends to floater range. What they do give up is corner 3s, the second most in the playoffs. Something to note.

I nod and say a quick “thanks,” before turning back to my car.

“Goodbye short man,” I hear from behind me. “And your hat is very silly.” I open the door and get into my car. Time to meet back up with Brad.

The next day

“So that’s what Freethroat provided me.”

The President has been in my office for a while, getting a detailed account of my meeting with Freethroat.

“Interesting stuff, I think it gives is a pretty good picture of what we already know. Luka and Kyrie carry their offense, and they’ve leaned into defending the rim in the playoffs. Their rotation has changed from our last regular season game. Jones and Gafford are both playing more, and they fit the new defensive identity the Mavs have carved out.”

“Exactly. Which brings up the two biggest questions for the series.” I look up from behind my desk with Brad sitting across from me. We meet eyes and say in tandem:

“How do we limit Luka and Kyrie, and how do we exploit their defensive gameplan?”

“Wow,” I follow. “We are getting really good at this.” He simply nods. I continue, “why don’t you come behind my desk and we can look at some tape.” He pushes his chair out and walks around, looking over my shoulder. I detect a light scent of cedarwood — it’s a charming scent. “Where do you want to start?”

“Let’s start with the Mavs offense, and specifically Luka and Kyrie.”

“Great. So, I think the defensive fulcrum of this series will be Kristaps Porzingis, and specifically when he defends pick-and-rolls, and more specifically, when he defends pick-and-rolls with Luka.

“I think your approach in the March game is the right one. With a player of Luka’s caliber, you need to send him a mix of coverages, never letting him get too comfortable. Obviously with KP, drop coverage is going to happen. It’s all about the execution.

“Take a look at this play here. It takes a bit to get into the Luka pick-and-roll, but this is pretty good drop coverage until the very end.

“KP is in solid position, Luka is going to have to settle for a Jrue Holiday contested fade as the shot clock runs, but KP gets too trigger happy. He wants to jump out and block the shot. Luka is too good to have your concentration lapse for even a second. He sees KP nudge towards him and the ball is on its way for an easy dunk.

“Here’s Luka coming off the Mavs’ favorite action, the double drag. This variation includes a screen then a dribble handoff, often called Chicago (although that’s traditionally out of the corner). It puts your dropping big in an incredibly difficult position.”

Brad interjects, “KP has to read two of his teammates, and make sure they execute a switch appropriately and one of them doesn’t expect him to switch onto the ballhandler. He has to make that decision in a heartbeat, and if he decides not to switch, he’s got to make sure he’s in the right spot to cut off the pass to the roller while containing dribble drives.”

“Exactly,” I respond. “He gets totally caught out here. It looks like he’s more worried about cutting off Luka’s drive, which allows Washington to roll into space right behind him. Luka very rarely makes mistakes on those reads; you’ve got to be inch perfect.

“He’s so good that even when you play it decently, he might still find the pass. Here, KP does a good job of corralling Luka’s drive, giving him almost nothing. He still, somehow, finds the pass to Washington in the dunker spot. Luckily, JB is on Lively in the weakside corner, he reads the pass, and knocks it away for a turnover.”

Brad leans back, his index finger and thumb gripping either side of his jar. “Therein lies the cat and mouse, Rick. They want to force KP into every pick-and-roll so we can’t switch, but they also want lob threats setting on-ball screens. When we have Porzingis guarding Washington, they can’t have it both ways.”

“Exactly!” I jump in excitedly, maybe too excitedly. “But there’s more, that means there’s nowhere for the big to go. Gafford and Lively are total non-shooters, so the Mavs tend to tuck them in the corner and hope they can cut to the dunker spot for lobs. That can hurt spacing, but it also provides an opportunity. The defender on the big can be an aggressive helper, like Jaylen was on that play.”

“But the way to play Luka Doncic isn’t with drop. In fact, it’s not with anything.”

“Huh?” Brad grunts.

“It’s with everything.”

“That makes no sense, Rick.”

“Hear me out, drop is a perfectly fine base scheme to run against Doncic. You will probably concede some pull-ups and some lobs, but overall, it’s ok. The key is mixing in other looks on top of drop. You have to keep Luka guessing. Why not switch a bit, like KP does here?”

“Luka makes this shot, but I don’t think it’s sustainable offense over the course of seven games. Switching is especially viable when Al Horford is out there as the lone big, or you guys decide to give Tillman some run.

“Blitzing and trapping the Mavs pick-and-rolls has also been successful so far in the post season. Take a look at this.”

“Wow,” Brad says, amazed. “0.77 points per possession is terrible.”

“I know! You guys went to the blitz a few times during the March game. They both ended in lightly contested floaters; one by Lively that he made, and one by Washington that he missed.”

“No matter what you do, Luka will get his, but if you keep him off balance, you can limit what the role guys do. The last thing you want is Luka getting any shot he wants and getting everyone else any shot they want. Force him to take pull-ups and live with the results.”

“Very interesting, Rick. What about Kyrie?”

“Meh, I’d probably play drop if a Celtics big is involved in the pick-and-roll and otherwise just switch it. You will probably concede some mid-range jumpers and the occasional pull-up three, but I don’t think he’s nearly as dangerous a playmaker as Luka. You had good success with this strategy in March. He went 9 of 23.”

Brad takes a deep breath, clearly blown away by my expert, borderline life-changing analysis. He starts to talk, “mix it up against Luka, and play solid against Kyrie. I think it’s the right move, but push come to nudge (I don’t like saying shove, it’s too violent), Dallas has been winning with its defense. What I really need to know is how to attack that.”

“Way ahead of you, Presidente.”

“Presidente? What’s that?”

“Sorry, it’s French or something, it means president. Anyway, the most important thing to know about Dallas’ defense is that they want to defend the rim first and foremost. They give up the 6th fewest FGAs in the restricted area in the playoffs and force the 3rd lowest FG%. So, they do a good job of limiting the volume and a really good job of forcing misses. As we noted earlier, they are foul happy though, which can be used to the Cs’ advantage. They also do a good job of limiting attempts and accuracy in floater range. What they concede, though, is corner threes. They give up over 11 a game, which is almost double the Celtics number. This all adds up to the third best halfcourt defense of the postseason.

“The Celtics will need to be smart in how they attack. Dallas loves to overload the strong side and pack the paint. This gives up skip passes to the opposite corner. Tatum’s playmaking has really grown, due in no small part to his ability to hit these skip passes. He did it several times against Dallas in March. Here’s one.

“If Dallas keeps to their scheme, this pass will be massively important. Frankly, patience on drives and post-ups will be hugely important in general. You cannot let Dallas bait you into taking the first layup that comes your way. They can be totally unlocked with paint touches that lead to kickouts, swings, and closeout drives. Watch how much they overreact to a simple Al Horford post-up.

“They are not shy with helping at the rim.”

“When Maxi Kleber is in the game, the calculus changes a little.”

Brad butts in, “I’m surprised you know what calculus is.”

“Honestly, I don’t, but I’ve heard it used in this context before.” He nods with a sly grin. I continue. “Kleber lets them switch 1-5, but he’s not a rim protector. With him in the game, you absolutely should be attacking the rim, and cannot be afraid of taking the first layup that comes your way. It should be met with much less resistance.

“And finally, against a team that packs the paint, spacing is paramount. Cutting is well and good, but you need to be sharp with your cuts and keep spacing unless you’re sure there is an opportunity. Look at JB on this play, if he stays put in the corner, it’s probably a wide-open corner 3. Instead, he cuts, drags his defender with him, and doesn’t give Jrue a passing lane.

“Speaking of spacing, KP’s return will be huge. He’s just got a much quicker and deeper trigger than Al Horford, which extends the defense just a little further out. It can absolutely undermine a defensive scheme like the one Dallas runs. He was getting them up early and often in the March game. I expect no different in the NBA Finals.

“Lively’s natural inclination is to help at the rim, which leaves the tall thin man wide open. Bang.”

Brad nods, and starts to talk, not skipping a beat, “we need to attack Kyrie and Luka.”

A wide, animalistic grin creeps across my face, “oh yeah, you do. But you need to be smart about it. This might be shocking to hear, but both Luka and Kyrie have been pretty sturdy isolation defenders in the playoffs. The last thing you want to do is totally undermine your offense to chase isos against either of those guys. They can, and will, do a solid job with a set defense and stagnant offense behind them. With that said, Luka can be punished as an off-ball defender. You absolutely need to run him through actions. Put him in pick-and-roll, make him guard pin-downs, have his guy come get DHOs. They will try to hide him on Derrick White, and that gives White a massive opportunity. Look at this corner DHO from the March game. Luka tries to jump the handoff, and Derrick back cuts him, moves the ball, and generates a wide-open look.

“Or here, where he’s put in simple pick and roll action. I’m not sure if he’s in drop or supposed to trap, but he basically just stands there and puts his hands up. Tatum hits Jrue on the short roll, defense is scrambling — BOOM! — wide-open corner three.

“I love it, Rick. What about Kyrie?”

“Well, this one is pretty easy. I would relentlessly post him up. He’s just not big enough or strong enough to hold up in the post against any of Tatum, Brown, Holiday, or Horford, and, oh baby, never mind trying to stop Kristaps. This is light work for the Latvian.

“While Tatum has had success posting him up, he needs to be disciplined and should not back it out and iso. Kyrie can get into his handle and has been a handsy defender for a few years now. Get to the post, turn over a shoulder, and make a play. He does it beautifully here.

“Post-ups, baby. Post-ups.”

“Thank you, Rick. You’ve done it again. This is absolutely wonderful.” Brad’s warm smile as the compliment rolls off his tongue warms my heart. “So, what will it be?”

“Well Brad, you know me. I’m purely, totally, 100% objective. Stopping Luka, and to a lesser extent Kyrie, will be a massive challenge. Dallas has played excellent defense in the playoffs, but the Celtics are uniquely built to attack exactly what they are trying to do. They’ve also got enough bodies on defense to at least make Luka’s life difficult. So, if I had to guess, I’d say Celtics in….”

Brad jumps in right as I utter the word, “five.”