Entering the 2022 Draft, the Celtics were fresh off of a heart-breaking loss to the Golden State Warriors after the first Finals berth of the Jays era. Brad Stevens had just completed his first year as the President of Basketball Operations. Ime Udoka was still the head coach. Jrue Holiday was in Milwaukee, and Kristaps Porzingis was in Washington. The team didn’t have any first-round picks, but they did have a second-rounder – the 53rd pick in the draft. They selected a 19-year-old guard out of Alabama by the name of JD Davison.
Celtics fans may not be too familiar with JD, as he hasn’t spent much time in Boston to this point. He joined the team on a two-way contract, and has been on two-way contracts ever since. He’s spent the vast majority of his time in the G-League thus far, but the 24-25 season is his last year of two-way eligibility, which means he’ll be looking to prove that he belongs on an NBA roster by the end of the year. That’s a tough task on a loaded Celtics squad.
Joe Mazzulla said he’s been talking to Anton Watson & Baylor Scheierman:
“There’s nothing harder than being a young player with the Celtics… the young guys have to be very, very patient, because the roster is very top-heavy.”
Said JD Davison and Drew Peterson have improved pic.twitter.com/aVJZINc9l1
— Noa Dalzell (@NoaDalzell) October 21, 2024
Davison will undoubtedly spend the majority of his time back in Maine this season barring any unexpected circumstances. The team has made development a key part of their strategy over the past few years with guys like Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, and Jordan Walsh working their way up from the G-League to earn a spot in the Celtics rotation. JD will be looking to become the latest addition to that list, and the team’s salary situation may put him in a better situation to do so. However, he still needs to prove that he’s deserving.
So, what can we hope to see from him this year to earn his spot?
Well, first let’s look back at what he’s done so far. Davison has been known as a high-flying, athletic guard who excels as a distributor. He’s spent two years in the G-League so far, and has played a combined 54 games in that time. In his first season, Davison averaged 12.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 8.7 assists on 50.6/31.7/73.2 shooting splits. He scored about 63% of his points in the paint, and 18% off of threes. While he spent the vast majority of the season coming off of the bench, he still played about 31.3 minutes per game.
In his second season, JD became the starter, and saw about a 3-minute uptick in his playing time at 34.4 minutes per game. With the minor playing time adjustment, he saw a major role increase. He nearly doubled his field goal attempts per game, going from 9.7 all the way up to 17.8. Of course, his scoring took a jump as well, now at 20.8 points per game to go along with his 5.4 rebounds and 8.6 assists. Unfortunately, his shooting splits took a dive. He finished the 23-24 regular season with 45.1 FG%, 26.6 3P%, and 68.2 FT% shooting splits.
When we compare the two seasons, it’s hard to see the growth. While trying to increase his offensive production, his efficiency dropped off a cliff, and he ended up averaging less assists as well, albeit very slightly. It’s expected that the shooting numbers would drop with higher volume, but the significance of the drop is certainly concerning. That becomes especially true when we look at where his points are coming from. He saw about a 5% decrease in points in the paint, with that extra 5% getting distributed evenly between mid-range shots, 3-pointers, and free throws. The vast majority of his production is still coming from the paint, and while increasing his free throw and three-point frequency, he saw minimal return.
The biggest thing Davison has shown me is that he feels comfortable with the ball in his hands, something he’s done at every level of basketball so far. You could put together a pretty lengthy highlight reel of all of his flashy dimes, and he does a good job of moving around the court and making the right plays.
The inefficiency is by far the biggest missing piece for him, but if he’s looking for an NBA contract, he has to understand that he’s not going to get the chance to put up 15-20 shots per game like he can in Maine. By defining his role as a facilitator, he can show that he’s willing to make the right play for the good of the team. Not only that, but he should find himself taking higher quality shots as a result, which should in theory help out his efficiency. Just because the stats don’t back it up, doesn’t mean that JD hasn’t still shown signs of improvement. He’s had plenty of stellar games – he just hasn’t had consistency.
His last two years in the G-League haven’t shown to be NBA level play just yet, although he certainly looked better in the Celtics preseason this year. Davison played in all five of Boston’s games at about 13 minutes per game. In that time, he put up 7 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game on 45.5/42.9/81.8 shooting splits. His scoring came on relatively low volume at only 4.4 total FGA per game, though his shot distribution is noteworthy.
In the G-League, Davison has heavily favored earning his points in the paint, whereas in the preseason, about 64% of his field goal attempts came from behind the 3-point line. That’s a stark contrast to the 28.8% FGA as threes and 19.6% points off of threes from his previous season with Maine.
This shift could be telling about his approach coming into this season. If he can maintain his preseason efficiency throughout Maine’s season, he could greatly increase his value to NBA teams. The Maine roster is set to be pretty loaded this year, and could even see the addition of Lonnie Walker IV, so Davison will have plenty of help around him. That could also mean he has less responsibility. Now is probably his best, and maybe even last opportunity to make the most of it.
Looking at the Boston Celtics roster, I don’t think it’s very likely JD gets converted to a full-time contract by the end of the year. There’s only one remaining spot open at the moment, and that is likely reserved for someone who can actually fill in on a playoff team if needed, if not just for tax relief. Even in the offseason, the Celtics only have three expiring contracts – Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Jaden Springer, all who will likely be higher priority retentions than JD. He has a lot to prove, and although I unfortunately don’t see him having a future in Boston given the current roster, I certainly hope he can take that step to earn himself a spot on another team next year.
