Thank you once again for all the great questions to my open mailbag. There were a number of really good ones and a ton of trade proposals, which I want to get to soon. But a few well thought out questions floated to the top that I wanted to address first.
Zolak’sclipboard
JB is my favorite Celtic of the last 8 years, but as I look at how the tax aprons work, it increasingly seems to me that it is not feasible to construct a contender around two super max guys. Unless you surround them with guys on rookie contracts (Oklahoma is attempting this, we will see how it works).
If trading JB is inevitable in the next year or two, does it make sense to pull the trigger this summer? Try to get pieces back that fit around Tatum or try to get a high pick back and a few rotation pieces and let the rookie get heavy minutes while Tatum is rehabbing?
I don’t want to trade JB, but the pathway back to contention with both JT and JB on the payroll looks narrow
Very well crafted question. My initial instinct is that the team will try to keep the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown together because they are a proven foundation for a title contender (and winner at least once). The trick, as you point out, is filling the roster out around them when they take up such a huge portion of the payroll that Brad is trying to fit under the various aprons and tax lines.
To accomplish that feat, the team will either have to be very creative to dip below the 2nd Apron and perhaps even the Luxury Tax line. Once the worst of the penalties is lifted, you can start building the salaries up again (likely a repeating long term process).
The alternative is to hit the “easy button” and simply put Jaylen Brown on the table and maximize what you get back. That could mean younger players with star potential, draft picks, and of course salary relief. In theory you could keep around some of the expensive vets that we’ve been talking about offloading (Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis).
The problem I have with that plan is the “bird in the hand” of it all. In the duo of Tatum and Brown, we have something that most teams in the league are trying desperately to acquire or develop. Letting go of one of them for a package of pieces that you are hoping maybe could produce another star somewhere in the range of Jaylen is a gamble I’d rather not take if it can be avoided.
Said another way, we have two or three (if you include Derrick White, and I think I do) pillars to build around. I’d rather strip everything else down to the studs and rebuild around the pillars than try to prop things up while trying to find another pillar.
Of course, we might be backed into a corner where there aren’t any better options. If that’s the case, you have to at least consider the option of trading Brown. The next factor would be timing. Do you wait till next year to see how much he levels up as his usage and responsibility increases? Or do you sell teams on the fact that he could be the number 1 option for them but hasn’t had that opportunity here (yet)?
Oh yeah, and if he were to be traded this offseason, we would all have to get back in the habit of calculating ping pong ball odds and scouting the draft pool. At least in the short term.
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Eric Canha-Imagn Images
357Dust
Where do we get the bigs? Horford and Kornet are FAs and you have to think they will try to move on from KP just because he is on an expiring and might be easier to move – not that teams won’t want Holiday but he is 35 and there is a limited market for his skills.
There is no way Brad and new ownership is letting this ride – it is just a question of how many moves he can make and what pieces are in play.
Very curious off season for sure and the Tatum injury might give them the license to really make more moves toward retooling for 26-27.
Good question and one that I’ve been wondering about since before the playoffs even ended. I was previously hopeful that Kornet could somehow return. However, barring some very creative financial moves, I don’t see us having the room to sign him to what he’s worth (and he’s made himself very valuable).
Queta is a serviceable backup big option, but I don’t know that he’ll be reliable enough starting on a contending team (though you never know).
So my current hope is that we can get a serviceable big man as part of one of the salary slashing trades involving Jrue or KP. In addition, I’m hoping that there’s some good, young bigs available where the Celtics are drafting. They probably won’t be ready right away, but maybe they could be developed next year and ready for a larger role by the time Tatum is ready to go.
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mahonedog88
I’m curious where the new ownership and Brad stands on a new Mazzulla contract. He’s going into the final year of his deal, and so rarely in professional sports nowadays do we see a coach go into the final year of their contract. I do think he’ll get an extension, but if it’s only a 1 or 2 year extension, I think that could be a subtle sign that his seat is getting warm.
Because while yes, the resume speaks for itself for his first 3 years if you zoom out…57 wins and the ECF, 64 wins and a title, and 61 wins and the second round. That’s objectively excellent. But another way to look at this objectively is that in two out his three years, they lost to inferior teams with his play style and system playing a major role in it.
Are we sure Bill Chisolm is on board with chucking up 50 to 60 3s every game? Are we sure Brad Stevens is?
I appreciate the nuance of this question. The knee-jerk reaction to losing a playoff series to a team the Celtics were favored to beat is to blame the coach and call for his head. That would be a bit silly given his track record and the trust he’s built up in that locker room.
My first instinct is to give coaches the benefit of the doubt because I am fully aware that almost all of them know the game way better than I do. There are so many factors at play that it is never as simple as it seems from our seats. With that said, I don’t think Joe had a great series and probably deserves a good share of the blame for the first two losses that slipped away.
Does he get an extension? Most likely. After winning a title, he probably earned himself a nice raise. It doesn’t count against the cap anyway. Is it worth giving him only a shorter term deal in order to maintain flexibility if he isn’t actually the long term answer? I think I’d prefer to give him a nice extension and see how next year goes (it will be a whole different challenge for him).
A side note: It seems like in most cases, coaches have a limited shelf life. Even Brad had to move to the front office when it seemed like the team wasn’t necessarily all-in on his vision. Joe has only been here 3 years and the record speaks for itself.
Agit8or
Celts have two or three contracts that can bring back value, assuming JT is untouchable: JB, DW, and PP. All other trades will get you a ham sandwich back.
DW is getting old. I believe next year is a lost season. Maybe the one after that as well, as JT may take two full years to get back to top form. By year three, I think DW is on the downhill slide.
So, despite the author’s position re DW, he is one Celts can trade high, and target youth or picks that might be ready three years from now.
KP needs to go, and Jrue, for whatever Celts can get. I think Celts should reset with the aim of making a big run again in 27/28. JB, JT, PP, and whatever youth and picks we get for DW, and whatever we can do to develop the bench, and Celts should have a decent team in 27/28. I just don’t see the Celts making a run next two years given salary cap and injury issues, and Father Time is catching up with DW. Tatum will be 29, and assuming he is once again healthy, Celts get a few more years of prime JT, and JB.
JB would draw the biggest haul, but again there is the two year delay, and DW isn’t enough.
So DW is my choice of who to trade, along with as big a salary dump as we can get.
Pie in the sky: JB, DW, and a couple picks for Giannis. If the salaries work? But it would waste another year or two of Giannis prime, so totally unfair for him.
Putting aside my visceral reaction to the thought of trading Derrick White, I can at least see where you are coming from. White would bring back a haul. Maybe not the full Mikal Bridges package, but you never know.
I just go back to the comments I said about Brown. It is so very hard to find guys like White, and I would even argue that he’s got another level he can reach. He’s making a good amount of money over the next few years, but if he was on the open market right now he’d probably be commanding near max level. So from that perspective, he’s a bargain at his price point.
As for the age, he’s about to turn 31 in July. That means he’ll still be 32 the season after next. His game doesn’t seem to be one that will age poorly. Sign me up for 4 more years please.
Thanks again for the questions everyone. I’ll do what I can to get to the trade ideas soon.