Joe Mazzulla’s tightrope walk of adjustments and a Cavaliers-Celtics prediction

I often think about the words of one the world’s most renown Settlers of Catan players, Grant Williams. No, I’m not referring to “I’m gonna make both,” which happened against the Celtics 2nd round opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Shortly after Grant was traded to the Dallas Mavericks, he joined JJ Reddick on The Old Man and the Three podcast where he talked about the differences between Joe Mazzulla and Ime Udoka.

The difference that stuck with me was how the two coaches responded when things weren’t working. Williams describe Udoka’s style as empowering the players to make changes on the fly, and, occasionally, just telling them to play better (with Udoka’s signature style including swearing). Last year’s version of Joe took a different approach. He would change things, analytical at its heart. If Plan A isn’t working, try Plan B, and if that doesn’t work, let’s try Plan C.

There’s wisdom in both approaches, but high-level coaching requires a balancing act of both. It’s a difficult to walk the adjustment tightrope, but so far, Mazzulla has reached the quarter mark of the rope just fine. With that said, having a little help doesn’t hurt, and the Celtics’ roster is akin to one of those huge poles they use for balance. Joe has a lot of options, but most encouragingly, he’s not afraid to use them. There are aspects of Mazzulla’s coaching in the Miami Heat series I want to highlight that evidence Joe’s ability to strike the right balance between adjusting and simply asking his players to execute better. Then, we will talk about what that means for a Cavs series.

Using Jayson Tatum

If there’s one team that’s going to challenge a coach, it’s Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat. It seemed Miami’s primary strategy was to bait the Jays into their worst habits, like dangling a fresh ciabatta in front of someone with Celiac’s disease. In Game 1, Miami sent heavy help and doubles at Tatum, hoping he’d resist making the right play. So what did Mazzulla and Tatum do? They gave him the ball in his spots (low post, high post, and above the break), let the help come, and Tatum absolutely picked them apart with his passing.

In Game 2, Miami adjusted. The help only arrived after the Jays earned it by attacking the rim and drawing two. Often the ball ended in Jrue Holiday’s or Kristaps Porzingis’ hands, asked to beat their man 1-on-1, and unable to do so. Both the Jays had excellent games, but the Celtics were unable to generate enough 3s to match Miami’s historic night behind the arc.

If Miami was going to play the Celtics straight up, then you need someone to break down their defender or get the defense shifting after a pick-and-roll. After averaging well below his season averages in dribbles per touch and time of possession, Mazzulla empowered Tatum to get on the ball in Game 3. He was asked to beat his man and score or draw help and get the ball moving. He did just that.

And then came Game 4, where Spo made his boldest adjustment of the series. He put Bam Adebayo as the primary defender on Jayson Tatum. Bam is easily the most equipped Heat player to defend Tatum on the perimeter. The problem is that he’s also their only source of rim protection.

So, Joe changed their offensive approach, using Tatum as a decoy. Tatum’s usage percentage in the first three games of the series was 27.6%, in the final two it was 21.4%. A massive drop for a first option, and a bold choice from Joe Mazzulla. It didn’t just work; it completely unlocked the Heat defense. Look at how much space Brown has when he goes to work on Tyler Herro in the 1st quarter of Game 5.

And there’s Bam, helplessly stuck to Tatum as he lounges in the corner, kicks back in a recliner, and grabs some popcorn. The Celtics finished the series 26.8 points per 100 better on offense with Tatum on the court than off, despite him clocking in as the Celtics’ third leading scorer. It was a parade to the rim, a celebration of mismatches, and an exclamation point on a dominant series win.

Defending the 3-point line

Miami did what every underpowered team does in a playoff series: they tried to introduce variance into the equation. The annoying part is that it worked last year, and it worked in Game 2. But the Celtics weren’t blameless in letting the Heat get hot, especially in Game 2. Well, here’s the Heat’s open and wide-open shot attempts by game:

Game 1: 33
Game 2: 37
Game 3: 20
Game 4: 27
Game 5: 20

Pretty stark difference from Games 1 and 2 to the rest of the series. So, what magic did Joe Mazzulla whip up to limit the Heat’s open and wide-open three-point attempts? Here’s a few threes from Game 2.

Now here’s Game 3.

The Celtics are still in their base drop coverage against pick-and-rolls. They are still helping fairly hard off corner shooters. It’s just that the close outs are harder, the rotations crisper, and the Heat couldn’t sustain shooting 55%. Instead of switching the scheme, Mazzulla trusted his players to not BS their way through the series, to paraphrase Ime Udoka. He didn’t overreact to one big shooting night. Instead, he trusted the scheme and let the Celtics respond.

Which brings us to the Cavs.

Walking the tightrope in Cleveland

I don’t want to disparage JB Bickerstaff because he knows a lot more about basketball than I do. I think he’d even agree with the following: Bickerstaff is no Erik Spoelstra. This series is ripe for Joe to tiptoe along the wire, trusting his talent when the series calls for and adjusting otherwise. There are a few spots where I think this balance will especially show its face.

Attacking Darius Garland

The tug-of-war when the Cavs are on defense starts with Garland. The Celtics should attack him relentlessly, but it’s a delicate balance. You don’t want to hyper focus on attacking one player and risk getting yourself out of your normal offensive sets. It’s akin to what other teams try to do when Sam Hauser is on the court.

You don’t have to specifically target Garland to have success when he’s on the court. Attacking the rim when he’s the closest help defender can keep the Celtics in their normal offense while gaining an advantage during his minutes. On this attack by Tatum, Garland finds himself near the rim when Hauser cuts from corner to corner. He doesn’t even try to contest as Tatum waltzes in for two.

I think there’s a world where Garland is so destructive to the Cavs defense that his minutes see a sharp decline. But, if the Celtics are grinding to a halt trying to punish Garland and the ball starts to get sticky, what will we see Joe do? Does he trust that over a series, going at Garland in isolation is a winning strategy? Or does he call off the dogs, and let the Celtics get into their sets and react to what the defense gives them? If Garland is getting exposed, will Bickerstaff have the courage to sit him on the bench?

If I had to venture a guess, I think the Celtics will be successful going directly at Garland. I think Joe will be willing to make an adjustment to their offense and run a more intentional attack. They’ve excelled at exploiting mismatches all season long while generally avoiding the devolution into putrid isolation basketball. The player attacking Garland doesn’t have to be the one to score, they just need to create an advantage, draw help, and go from there. I anticipate Bickerstaff will be searching for answers to the Garland problem early in the series, and then Joe can adjust from there.

Mitchell and the pull-up problem

It’s no secret that the Celtics prefer to run drop coverage against high screen and rolls and they vary the look based on ball-handler. Going under screens against less dangerous pull-up shooters or if the screen is set extremely high up the court, like Jrue does on this initial Bam screen (he opts to go over and trail on the second screen as it’s set closer to the 3-point line).

That play is indicative of the Celtics’ base defense. Horford is patrolling just short of the 3-point line, able to corral Herro and buy Holiday time to recover. No NBA scheme is without weakness, and drop coverage’s is conceding pull-ups. Herro gets a pretty clean look on that play, he’s just Tyler Herro.

Donovan Mitchell is a different beast.

He’s much more dynamic off the bounce, able to get to his spots before Holiday can recover. He shot the pull-up fairly well this season, 45.2% from 2 and 35.0% from 3, and, like Tatum, has games where he gets absolutely rolling with that shot. If Mitchell starts getting into a rhythm and hitting jumpers, how will the Celtics react?

Does Mazzulla trust the scheme and dare Mitchell to beat the Celtics four times? Does he move Horford to the level of the screen, risking Mitchell getting downhill and the Celtics into rotation? Does he switch, putting Horford on an island and asking his guard to deny the roll man and rebound? Do we go zone?

If I’m reading the Mazzulla-tea leaves correctly — and there’s no doubt that tea would taste like a sweaty jiu-jitsu bag — I think Joe holds pretty firm on drop coverage and dares Mitchell (and Garland) to beat them with pull-ups. 45/35% on pull-ups is solid, but it’s not win-a-series good. He did shoot over 39% on pull-up 3s last season, but Mitchell has struggled from 3 against the Celtics, who can bother him with their length. Garland is a solid pull-up shooter himself, but has looked hesitant for a while now, and doesn’t have the size to create his shot as dynamically as Mitchell. Joe will probably trust the math and bet that Cleveland’s guards can’t blow up their defensive scheme in 4 games out of 7.

Mazzulla passed his first test of these playoffs with more flying colors than whatever those hideous letters are on the Heat’s alternate jersey. Everything Spo threw at the Celtics, Mazzulla either had a counter, or trusted his players to up the execution and intensity.

At the start of the Miami series, Joe Mazzulla put on his wire-walker slippers, grabbed his big pole, and jumped on the tightrope. He deftly navigated the first test, but things only get harder from here. Joe just needs to keep one foot in front of the other, one game at a time, and he and the Celtics will reach the end of the line soon enough. Celtics in 5. Full disclosure, I said 6 on the First to the Floor podcast, but I’ve changed my mind.