Kings fans are riding high after Tuesday’s Play-In victory against the Golden State Warriors. Sacramento not only won that must-win game against a hated rival, they did so in dominant fashion. With that victory, the Kings earned one final shot at making the playoffs, with the winner of tonight’s game moving on to face Oklahoma City in the first round. But in order to do so, they’ll have to topple a team that has beaten them five times this season in the New Orleans Pelicans. Zion Williamson-less or not, this is going to be a tough battle.
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Friday, April 19th, 6:30 PM PT
Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
TV: TNT, truTV
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140
Three Things
Sixth times the charm?
Thanks to the inaugural in-season tournament, the Kings and Pelicans faced off five times this season. New Orleans came out on top each time, and in convincing fashion too: the average margin of victory was 19.2 points. If the Kings had managed to take even two of those games, they might not even be in this predicament right now, but alas here we are.
The Pelicans are a tough matchup for the Kings, sporting multiple long wings, good shooters across the board and a starting center who matches up well with Domantas Sabonis. Now, the Kings do have one thing going for them tonight in that Zion Williamson, an absolute matchup nightmare for the Kings, will not be playing. But even that’s no guarantee, as Sacramento lost by 33 in the lone game Zion missed in the season series. Still, Zion being out means one less problem for the Kings to have to deal with, and this Pelicans team already presents the Kings with a lot of problems.
This game is going to come down to if the Kings can finally figure out how to get stops against the Pelicans. New Orleans’ offense was pretty good for the season, ranking 11th overall. But against the Kings this year, they might as well have been the ’92 Dream Team. The Pelicans shot an absolutely ridiculous 54.6% from the field and 45.1% from three over five games against Sacramento. That’s hard for a lone player to do over five games, let alone an entire team! The Pelicans did play most of their games against the Kings before the new and improved defense had shown up, but even in their last matchup against the Kings a little over a week ago, they were able to drop 135 points, the most the Kings have allowed since the All-Star break.
No player has enjoyed playing the Kings more this season than C.J. McCollum. McCollum is a good player, averaging 20 points, 4.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds, while shooting a career-best 42.9% from three. But against Sacramento, his efficiency has skyrocketed: 60.4% from the field and 70.4% from three (13-18 overall). That’s insanity. Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray did a great job defensively against Stephen Curry in the first Play-In game, but they’ll need to do it again to stop C.J. from going off.
Live & Die by the Threes
New Orleans is a good three point shooting team (4th this season) but the Kings so far this season have allowed them to be the best three point shooting team of all time. Allowing a team to hit 45.1% of their threes over five games is not a recipe for winning basketball. Now, part of that is Zion Williamson’s gravity when driving into the paint that will not be an issue tonight. But the Pelicans still have guys like Ingram and McCollum who excel at getting into the paint and then dishing it out to open players. Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Naji Marshall and Jose Alvarado are all reliable knockdown threats from outside, and it’s going to be up to the Kings to limit the amount of open threes those guys get. The Kings did a great job protecting the perimeter against Golden State: The Warriors shot just 10-32 from distance. They’ll have to bring that same energy tonight against the Pelicans.
On the other hand, the Kings need to be able to make their own threes, something that they’ve struggled with against the Pelicans this season, making just 33.3% of their long distance attempts. We’ve seen all year how the Kings struggle offensively when the three isn’t falling, with a 5% difference in 3P% in Kings wins (38.8%) and losses (33.8%). Against Golden State, the three was falling as Sacramento shot 18-39 (46.2%). Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and Keon Ellis alone combined for 14-21 from distance. You can’t expect that kind of shooting efficiency every night, especially in a playoff type environment, but we need the Kings to at least be decent from distance to have a chance.
I’m betting the winner of this game is the team that manages to knock down more threes.
Can Keegan and Keon do it again?
Keegan Murray was unbelievable against the Golden State Warriors. In a game featuring multiple Hall of Famers, it was Keegan Murray who led the game in scoring and made his impact known right from tip. 32 points, 9 rebounds and 2 steals in 38 minutes of a win or go home game for Sacramento’s second year forward. He did that while also starting out as the primary defender against Stephen Curry. It was two-way perfection from Murray, and a perfect time for him to step up with the Kings missing two key players in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.
Keon Ellis was another guy that stepped up in a huge way. Defensively he was superb as always, tallying 3 steals and 3 blocks while spending most of the game guarding both Splash Brothers. But Keon also was very impactful offensively, scoring 15 efficient points (3-4 from three and 5-8 overall) while also dishing out 5 assists.
Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are always going to be the offensive focal points for the Kings, but if guys like Keegan and Keon can step up like they did on Tuesday, it just opens everything up for the Kings. The Pelicans have done a pretty good job containing both Fox and Sabonis this year. The Kings supporting cast needs to be on their A-game to relieve as much of that pressure as they can.
Prediction
Nobody beats us six times in a row. Nobody.
Kings 119, Pelicans 112
Fan Predictions
