Alexis Lafreniere has been a hot topic this summer. Aside from K’Andre Miller, Lafreniere’s name has been mentioned the most as fans discuss how to retool this team to be better this coming season. Assuming Chris Drury has learned from past mistakes (shhhh), then we can assume Lafreniere won’t be moved just for the sake of moving him. But there’s another wild card, and that is Mike Sullivan. Sully could be the coach to unlock Alexis Lafreniere, as his history with developing young wingers has shown.
Don’t sleep on Lafreniere’s metrics
Every single Ranger had a poor season last year. All of them. Singling out Lafreniere is both fair and unfair, as he wasn’t the only Ranger impacted by the locker room train wreck, but he also disappeared after signing his contract. It is worth noting the coincidental timing of the contract and the Rangers disappearing as a whole, since Lafreniere signed his extension in October. Was it the contract? Or was it the entire team disappearing? If it’s both, which one had the greater impact?
While Lafreniere took a step back in his scoring line with 11 fewer goals this year, he put up the usual 28 assists. All but 2 goals and 2 assists came at 5v5 as well, meaning Lafreniere was actually one of the better 5v5 players on the roster. Gaudy point totals come from powerplay time, which Lafreniere doesn’t get. That’s step one in unlocking Alexis Lafreniere: Just give him consistent powerplay time.
The other piece to consider is Lafreniere’s microstats. We leverage Evolving-Hockey‘s RAPM and Player Cards regularly here, and both show Lafreniere is a pretty steady play driver with below average defensive play. But the microstats, courtesy of All Three Zones, paint a much better picture. Lafreniere is a strong play driver, generating offense in many different manners with great vision and an ability to create high danger chances with strong zone entries.
Unlocking Alexis Lafreniere isn’t necessarily about overhauling his game. Mike Sullivan excels at simplifying things for his younger players and putting them in positions to succeed. Lafreniere’s skill set is vision, puck control, and generating high danger chances on either wing. What he lacks right now is strong skating, but Adam Fox isn’t a strong skater and he’s a consistent top-three defenseman in the NHL.
To unlock Alexis Lafreniere, there needs to be roster balance
If there’s one hill to die on this summer, it’s that the Rangers will not be a true Stanley Cup contender until Vincent Trocheck is their 3C. No disrespect to Trocheck, since he’s been a nice signing and one of the few bright spots worth his contract, but he’s been miscast as a 2C. He’s been great with Lafreniere and Artemi Panarin, but he’s always been a better matchup center against top competition. He’s not Aleksander Barkov, but he’s strong enough defensively that he can solve the Rangers need for a shutdown center.
To unlock Alexis Lafreniere would be to put him in a better position to succeed. His 5v5 play is strong and his counting stats will improve with powerplay time. Now it’s about finding the right complement of players for him. His microstats show he can carry a line with the right players, and right now those players aren’t on the roster, though there’s a strong case that Will Cuylle would look great as Laf’s left winger, getting to the net for those high danger chances, deflections, and rebounds.
The issue is a true scoring 2C that opens up ice for Lafreniere. Trocheck has been fine in that role, and this isn’t a slight on him. For those who remember the 2013-2014 New York Rangers, this is similar to the Brian Boyle situation. Until Boyle was the 4C, the Rangers were not serious Cup contenders. Derek Stepan-Brad Richards-Derick Brassard-Brian Boyle looked a lot better than Stepan-Richards-Boyle-Dominic Moore. Currently, JT Miller-Trocheck-Mika Zibanejad-Sam Carrick is fine, but Miller-2C-Trocheck-Carrick with Zibanejad on the wing looks far better.
The Sully factor
To unlock Alexis Lafreniere, first and foremost, is to put him in a position to succeed. That means putting him with a strong skating complement of players, which of course Cuylle fits that bill. The Rangers are relatively slow down the middle, which is a problem, but it’s one that Sully has been able to navigate before. Sometimes, you need to just let your coach be the coach. There’s some PTSD in New York regarding coaches, and for good reason, but Sully isn’t Gerard Gallant or Peter Laviolette.
Sullivan turned players with half of Lafreniere’s skill into solid NHLers. The right system with the right complement of players can and probably should unlock Alexis Lafreniere’s potential. Though far from untouchable in trades, Lafreniere is potentially a case for patience. There are too many timing coincidences with his drop off and the Rangers as a whole disappearing in November. Unless it’s the perfect deal, the goal should be to unlock Alexis Lafreniere, not dump him for peanuts, like they did with Kaapo Kakko.
