Paolo Banchero and the red-hot Orlando Magic are looking to secure their second consecutive playoff berth the hard way. Banchero and company play host to Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks in the opening game of the NBA’s sixth-annual play-in tournament on Tuesday.
The Magic enter the contest as -5.5 point favorites (-210 moneyline) and the over/under line is set at 216.5. The Hawks are making their fourth consecutive appearance in the play-in, though they have only advanced to the playoffs once by way of the tournament.
How Orlando Got Here
The Magic (41-41) won nine of their last 12 games to finish .500 despite going 32-38 through their first 70. Orlando navigated an extended absence from its star Banchero, who missed 34 straight after suffering a torn right oblique in a 102-99 loss to the Bulls on Oct. 30.
Orlando has been one of the streakiest teams in the NBA this season. After Banchero returned in early January, the Magic initially had trouble reintegrating him into the lineup and lost 10 of 11 games. The Magic also endured a stretch from late February to early March where they lost seven of nine before picking things up for the remainder of the regular season slate.
Banchero missed 36 games in total but led Orlando with 25.9 points and 7.5 points per game during the 46 games he was active. Franz Wagner led the Magic alongside Banchero and in his absence, averaging 24.1 points and a team-high 4.7 assists per game. Anthony Black has also emerged as a rising figure in Orlando’s offense recently, closing the regular season with consecutive 20-point performances after receiving an increase in minutes.
How Atlanta Got Here
Atlanta (40-42) improved its win total by four games from the 2023-24 season, which saw the team go one-and-done in the play-in as the No. 10 seed. The Hawks improbably landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft as a result of that loss, however, and the addition of top pick Zaccharie Risacher has proven vital to the team’s growth this season. Risacher started 73 games and averaged 12.6 points, which was good for fourth among active team members.
Unsurprisingly, the star of the show is still Trae Young. Young averaged a team-high 24.2 points and led the NBA with 11.4 assists per game during the regular season. He also led the Hawks to the semifinals of the NBA Cup, where they lost to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks.
Like Memphis, Atlanta is entering on somewhat of a hot streak. The Hawks won four of their last five regular-season games, including a 117-105 decision over Orlando in the finale on Sunday. Don’t put too much stock into that result, though. Both teams sat their stars.
Key To The Game
This one is pretty simple. Banchero’s performance will decide the game. These teams split the season series at two games apiece, but Banchero was inactive for both of Orlando’s losses and he went ballistic in its wins. He scored 36 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in a 114-108 win on Feb. 20, combining with 25 points from Wagner to negate a 38-point performance by Young.
Banchero then led all scorers with 33 points while again grabbing 10 rebounds in a 119-112 win over the Hawks in Orlando on April 8. Young was great in that game too, scoring 28 points and dishing out 12 assists, but it wasn’t enough. Atlanta’s path to beating Orlando starts with limiting Banchero.
