The NBA’s Western Conference semifinals are set to tip off on Monday night.
MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder will lock horns with 3X MVP Nikola Jokic and the 2023 NBA Champion Denver Nuggets. On the other side of the draw, Anthony Edwards and the No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves will take on Stephen Curry and the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors after each team pulled off upsets in the first round.
The Ballislife staff dropped their picks and predictions for each series below.
Western Conference Semifinals: Thunder vs. Nuggets
Will Despart
Prediction: Thunder in 4
A four-game sweep for OKC might sound a little crazy off top, but I don’t think the casual NBA fan realizes just how good of a basketball team this is. The Thunder have won 68 games this season, which is tied for the fifth-most in NBA history. If OKC were to complete this championship run, they would join a pair of MJ’s Bulls teams, the 1971-72 Lakers and the 1966-67 76ers (led by Wilt Chamberlain) as the only teams in NBA history to win a championship with 68+ regular-season wins.
With the Thunder looking every bit the part in a four-game sweep over Memphis and the Nuggets coming off a taxing seven-game series against the Clippers, one would imagine Oklahoma City has the health and energy advantage in this series. Not to mention how much OKC’s depth should overpower Denver in the first place.
The main storyline of this series, however, is the fact it’s a matchup between two competitors in what may end up as closest NBA MVP vote in a generation. The last known odds still have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the prohibitive favorite to win the award, though Nikola Jokic made a strong push at the end with an unbelievable finish to the regular season. Unfortunately, the talent advantage Oklahoma City has in this series makes it hard to believe that this clash of the titans lasts more than five games. As I’ve made clear, I think don’t even think it goes that long. Thunder in 4.
Sara Jane Gamelli
Prediction: Thunder in 6
The OKC Thunder finished with the NBA’s best record of 68-14 this season, marking 68 wins as the fifth most in NBA history. In fact, according to the NBA, they had a historic 54 double-digit wins this season. This doesn’t happen by accident, this is a dominant team top to bottom. Headlined by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there’s so much more to this Thunder team.
Having led the NBA with a +12.9 point differential. It’s the supporting cast around SGA that makes this Thunder team so dangerous. A young, yet robust team — Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are underrated crucial x-factors for this team. Not to mention, the young core that Mark Daigneault has brilliantly managed.
I personally feel the offseason additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein put this Thunder team over the top. We are talking about a team that ranked No.1 in defensive rating and net rating! Although they are a younger squad, we can’t overlook the dominance of this team. In fact, they remind me of the Celtics from 2016 on. Their top four players were drafted by the organization. This team is historically elite.
One of the most efficient teams beyond the arc this season (37.4 %), the Thunder were top four in scoring in the NBA (120.5). Splitting the series 2-2 with the Denver Nuggets, this won’t be an easy feat. Denver has a core group that’s been together—One in which they won an NBA Championship in 2023.
The Nuggets sure have chemistry and championship experience, however the Thunder have been a core group for a while. Denver stomped on the Thunder on the road 140-127 in March, so we know this will be a tight series. Then we saw the Thunder dominate the Nuggets 127-103 on their homecourt back in March.
Where these two teams differ is defense. Having ranked no. 21 in defensive rating in the regular season, the Nuggets rank no. 11 defensively in the playoffs.
Who doesn’t love a Western Conference Semifinals matchup headlining SGA and Nikola Jokic? Ironically the two top MVP candidates this season, both teams have players that can take over games night after night.
We saw the Thunder cruise to a 4-0 sweep over an ailing Memphis Grizzlies team. In fact, one in which they dominated with a +68 point differential. The Nuggets had a tumultuous first round series against the Clippers. Did Aaron Gordon bail Denver out?
Overall, the Thunder boast the best perimeter defense in the NBA, limiting teams to 34.2 percent beyond the arc this season. -900 odds to win the series, the Thunder head into Game 1 as heavy 9.5 point spread favorites. Having one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, that should propel the Thunder into the next round alone. Thunder in 6.
Aya Abdeen
Prediction: Thunder in 6
The Oklahoma City Thunder had one of the best seasons in franchise history, capturing 68 wins throughout the regular season. On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets won an NBA Championship just two years ago and has been in the playoffs for the last six years. It comes down to experience and the type of energy they would want to bring in throughout the series. The Thunder could take the series in seven games with the power from their young stars. Thunder in 6.
Western Conference Semifinals: Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Will Despart
Prediction: Timberwolves in 6
While many folks saw the Warriors’ downing the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets as a potential launching point for the team, that series made me feel like it was quite the opposite.
Houston is the definition of a great regular season team that’s still a star away from being a legitimate championship threat. That much was made clear by the fact that Fred VanVleet was the team’s most consistent offensive performer during the series. Much like the 2019 NBA Finals, VanVleet posed way more trouble for the Warriors than he probably should have.
Even with Jalen Green only breaking double-figures in scoring once in the seven-game series, the Warriors were unable to close out a 3-1 advantage until the fourth quarter of Game 7. With Anthony Edwards awaiting the Warriors’ like the Grim Reaper in the next round, I don’t anticipate them having such luck surviving.
Edwards has proven to be the NBA’s equivalent of “The Legend Killer” Randy Orton in wrestling, having taken NBA playoff series from LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Jokic before his 24th birthday. I fully expect him to add Stephen Curry to to that list of casualties, especially after how Minnesota closed out the regular season before humbling the Lakers in the first round. Timberwolves in 6.
Sara Jane Gamelli
Prediction: Timberwolves in 7
The Minnesota Timberwolves head into the Semifinals against the Golden State Warriors as slim -178 favorites in the sportsbooks. I may be wrong, however, I feel this one is going to a full seven games.
The Warriors went from a play-in team to a playoff team in a blink of an eye. After almost blowing a 3-1 in the first round, they came out victorious, thanks to Buddy Hield in game 7. We have to remember, Jimmy Butler suffered an injury halfway through the series.
The Warriors have undergone several roster changes this season, including trading for Butler mid season. While it’s unknown if Golden State has the proper chemistry to win a NBA Championship, they’ve proven they can hang in. After all, the Rockets are one of the most fiery on defensive in the NBA. If they can get past that, they should have a chance against the Timberwolves.
The Warriors won the regular season series against the Timberwolves 3-1, so we know they can hang in there. What’s better than series featuring two of the biggest stars in the NBA: Steph Curry vs Anthony Edwards?
Hield was hooping early in the season, and has shown Steve Kerr why he can be an x-factor moving forward. Scoring 33 points in a must win game 7, the thought of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Hield is scary. Not to mention, the Warriors have one of the most productive benches in the NBA.
Don’t Sleep on the Minnesota Timberwolves
That said, let’s not sleep on the Timberwolves. Having revamped their roster in the off-season, they finished as a top five team in offensive and defensive rating. In fact, they boasted a second best +5.0 point differential in the Western Conference, behind the Thunder.
We saw the Timberwolves send Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and the Lakers home packing after a 4-1 first round series win. With a +35 point differential, former Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Goebert exploded for a rare 27 point performance in Game 6.
With a strong starting five, Julius Randle has fit like a glove in Minnesota. Not to mention, we’ve seen the Ant Man explode for 43 points last series. I do think the x-factors in this series could be Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, or Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Timberwolves are gritty, and they have the “dawgs” to send the Timberwolves into the next round.
Overall, one game separated the Warriors and Timberwolves from the No. 6 and No. 7 seed. I think when people hear the word play-in team, they automatically discount a team. Timberwolves in 7.
Aya Abdeen
Prediction: Timberwolves in 6
The Minnesota Timberwolves have considerable rest since eliminating the Los Angeles Lakers in five games throughout the first round. Conversely, the Golden State Warriors, led by Curry and Butler, have played seven games in the first round— especially after they clinched a spot in the playoffs through a play-in game. With the type of performance Anthony Edwards is having for Minnesota and the rest and recovery they’ve had for nearly a week, I can see the team advancing to the Western Conference Finals once again. Timberwolves in 6.
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