NoVa Caps discussed the biggest surprises for the Washington Capitals; now, we will turn to the opposite side of the spectrum and talk about who has not been living up to their expectations thus far.
Our analysts will give their input on who has been underperforming this season and what we can expect from them heading into the campaign’s second half.
Jacob: Nick Jensen and Trevor van Riemsdyk
Jensen‘s tenure in Washington has been marked by inconsistencies. Upon his acquisition at the 2019 trade deadline, he showcased promise. Throughout his inaugural season with the team, he experienced peaks and valleys, gradually ascending as the season wore on. The preceding and subsequent seasons emerged as the apex of his Capitals career, during which he arguably stood out as the premier shutdown defenseman on the roster alongside former blueliner Dmitry Orlov. Their synergy was palpable, yet Jensen faltered after Orlov’s departure at last year’s trade deadline.
Fast forward to the present year, and Jensen’s performance has plummeted. The 33-year-old has grappled with positional awareness in his zone and has made poor decisions with the puck. Despite being paired with Joel Edmundson, envisioned as Washington’s shutdown tandem, they have floundered, registering a 12.8 xGA at five-on-five, the second-highest among defensive pairings this season.
Although the Capitals are unlikely to part ways with Jensen due to his three-year contract extension signed last February, his production remains lackluster, with just seven points in 47 games and a minus-6 rating.
Similarly, van Riemsdyk has disappointed, mirroring Jensen’s struggles in defensive play and positional awareness. Through 39 games, the 32-year-old only has eight assists and a minus-9 rating. His relegation as a healthy scratch during January reflects his decline from being one of the team’s most undervalued defensemen last season. While previously adept with his stick, he now falters in front of the net and often finds himself out of position.
Thomas Harley is heating back up.
You don’t want to let Thomas Harley heat back up. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DhzDgN0qM0
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) January 27, 2024
Diane: Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov
Ovechkin, aged 38 as of this September, was expected to see a decline in his goal-scoring prowess compared to his impressive 42-goal season last year. However, the anticipation was that he would still surpass the 30-goal mark, as it’s uncommon for players to drop from forty goals to less than twenty without injury. Yet, in the first forty-seven games of this season, he’s only managed nine goals, putting him on track for a mere sixteen by season’s end. To put it into perspective, he’s only one goal ahead of Los Angeles Kings center Pierre-Luc Dubois and one behind San Jose Sharks right wing Anthony Duclair, both considered significant underperformers, with Dubois even rumored to be on the trade block.
Before the season commenced, the expectation was for Ovechkin to net at least thirty goals, aiming to reach a career milestone of 852 goals, potentially surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s record. However, if he only manages sixteen goals for the 2023-24 season, his chances of overtaking Gretzky before his contract ends in 2025-26 appear doubtful.
This decline in Ovechkin’s goal-scoring prowess has also impacted the Capitals’ offensive performance. He contributed significantly to the team’s goal tally in previous seasons, accounting for a substantial percentage (e.g., 18% in 2021-22 and 15.8% in 2023-24). However, with his diminished goal output this season, the team’s offensive ranking has plummeted from the middle of the pack to near the bottom. On a brighter note, Ovechkin has managed to rack up twenty-two assists thus far.
As for Kuznetsov, his performance has also been lackluster. He’s on track for career-low numbers with just six goals and eleven assists in forty-three games. Particularly concerning is his low assist count, especially for a center whose role typically involves setting up teammates for goals. He’s already faced being healthy scratched for a game and has been relegated from his usual first-line center position to the third line. His advanced statistics, including Corsi-For Percentage, Fenwick-For Percentage, and Expected Goals Percentage, have consistently fallen below 50%, indicating subpar performance.
Michael: The Power Play
The Capitals’ power play has been faltering in its once-vaunted effectiveness for some time now. No longer is John Carlson going to fool opponents with a quick dish over to Ovechkin, who, despite some moments, has been virtually invisible on the scoreboard this season. And after finishing 16th in their final season under head coach Peter Laviolette with a 21.2% PP%, the team has sunk to a dismal 27th place with a 14.5% efficiency so far in the 2023-24 season.
After leading the Toronto Maple Leafs’ man advantage to the second-best unit in his two seasons as an assistant coach, Washington’s power-play has disappointed greatly in head coach Spencer Carbery’s first season on the job (although assistant Kirk Muller is in charge of the man-advantage specifically). However, the team has moved a few players around, and the unit’s MO looks the same: get the puck across to Ovechkin for the expected one-timer.
The absence of Nicklas Backstrom is illustrated nightly for the Capitals, especially regarding the team’s ability to set up and move the puck in the offensive zone with a man up. Players like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have been absent from the scoresheet offensively, which has not helped matters. It will be crucial for the team to completely reimagine their power play in the second half of the campaign, whether this means taking players off altogether or using a different entry method; the team’s offensive woes have been partly thanks to their lackluster power play.
Harrison: Alex Ovechkin
There are a lot of answers to this one: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Darcy Kuemper all come to mind.
The biggest one has to be Ovechkin. Yes, his goal-scoring was supposed to come down eventually, but nine goals and thirty-one points in forty-four games? That is way below where he expected to come in. The 38-year-old had a career-long 14-goal drought around the holidays, and the lack of primary scoring fell on him first and foremost. Others bear the responsibility, of course, but Ovechkin is the goal-scorer captain and best of all time.
Kuznetsov is not first because Ovechkin has never scored less than thirty-two in a regular campaign, and he is barely a quarter of the way there with half of the season left. Will he come alive down the stretch?
By Jacob Cheris, Diane Doyle, Michael Fleetwood and Harrison Brown
