For the last two seasons, it appeared Chris Drury had been gearing up for the 2026 free agent class, one that may include Jack Eichel and/or Connor McDavid. Arguably the two best centers in the NHL, if both are part of the 2026 free agent class, then there’d be a bidding war to end all bidding wars. The Rangers have structured more than a few contracts designed to be traded for that summer, but is it truly the best idea?
It’s not just McDavid and Eichel hitting free agency. Artemi Panarin, Kirill Kaprizov, Adrian Kempe, Kyle Connor, and Martin Necas are all top line players that are expected to be a part of the 2026 free agent class. Top pairing defensemen like John Carlson, Jake Walman, and despite aging, Ryan McDonagh are expected to be a part of the 2026 free agent class as well. There are so many names, but does it make sense for the Rangers to essentially punt this season to gear up for the 2026 free agent class?
Shayna Goldman at The Athletic brought up a very good point regarding the 2025 free agent class. At the start of the season, Leon Draisaitl, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, and Igor Shesterkin were all slated to hit free agency. All except Marner signed extensions. The only top line/pairing players hitting free agency now are John Tavares, Nikolaj Ehlers, Aaron Ekblad, and Vlad Gavrikov. Of the 26 top line/pairing/starting goalies who were projected to hit free agency, only 5 will make it to the summer. This was not unique to last year either.
So if the Rangers are banking on one member of the 2026 free agent class to actually make it to the summer, likely Eichel, then they are taking on enormous risk and essentially punting the 2025-2026 season. If they are waiting for Eichel, then they are letting Panarin walk and finding a way to trade Mika Zibanejad and possibly Chris Kreider. Before the JT Miller trade, this seemed like a fine plan. But with Miller in tow, is waiting and hoping that Eichel hits the 2026 free agent class the best move?
Waiting for the 2026 free agent class is risky
It’s a tad too early for predictions since we don’t know the 2026-2027 salary cap, but it’s safe to assume McDavid will command at least $15 million (15% of the cap) and Eichel about $13 million (13% of the cap). As it stands today, the Rangers have 7 forwards and 3 defensemen signed for the 2026-2027 season, totaling a bit less than $65 million in cap space. Using an even $100 million salary cap ceiling, that’s $35 million to fill out the roster, which does not include expected extensions for Will Cuylle and K’Andre Miller this offseason and Braden Schneider next offseason.
Let’s be conservative and assume the Rangers shell out $15 million for this trio. That drops them to $20 million in cap space with 8 forwards and 5 defensemen signed. Add Gabe Perreault, Matt Rempe, Adam Edstrom, and a backup goalie at $1 million each, and it’s 11 forwards and 5 defensemen with $16 million to spare. Adding Eichel at $13 million leaves $3 million remaining for a roster with 12 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goalies.
Without trading Zibanejad or Kreider, the Rangers would have a lineup that would resemble something close to this:
Kreider-Miller-Zibanejad
Othmann-Eichel-Lafreniere
Berard-Trocheck-Perreault
Edstrom-Carrick-Rempe
Parssinen
Miller-Fox
??-Borgen
Vaakanainen-Schneider
7D
If you’re seeing this lineup and thinking about injuries and depth, then you’re seeing what I’m seeing. So many question marks without clear solutions. Even if we assume the Rangers trade Zibanejad and sign a 2LD, the issue remains, just with more cap space.
But, and this is where the risk comes, what if Eichel doesn’t make it to the 2026 free agent class? There are few, if any, other centers worth their projected salaries in that class. All of a sudden, Trocheck is the 2C and Zibanejad, if still around, is back at 3C. If Eichel doesn’t make it to the 2026 free agent class, then the Rangers are running it back for the next two seasons. This is the type of waiting that gets a GM fired.
Oh and another risk: That 2026 first round pick going to Pittsburgh*. If the Rangers wait for the 2026 free agent class, it signals they aren’t going to be making huge moves this summer. Is Mike Sullivan enough to guarantee the Rangers don’t collapse again?
*-It’s safe to assume the Rangers make their first round pick in 2025 and send 2026 to Pittsburgh. By not doing so, they are sending a message to the locker room that next season doesn’t matter. I think we can all guess that another down season costs Drury his job, so expect that pick to be made this summer.
Strike now while players have value
Chris Drury has alluded to the Rangers getting younger, something Eichel and the 2026 free agent class doesn’t do. This summer is probably their best summer to get decent value for any of Zibanejad, Kreider, and Panarin. Eichel will be 30 years old by the time the puck drops for the 2026-2027 season. Though he is Jack Eichel so age isn’t the issue. It’s more about his neck and how that surgery holds up over time. He was the first pro athlete to get the surgery–to my knowledge–so we don’t have any past examples to leverage.
Despite what you may think, and remember as fans we are all biased, all three of Kreider, Panarin, and Zibanejad will have value throughout the league. Kreider is the only question mark because of the vertigo, but Panarin and Zibanejad have value. If the “cancer” JT Miller can get traded on the heels of a 100 point season, so can the “struggling” Zibanejad on the heels of a 72 point season. Remember Zibanejad still managed 62 points last season in a down year. Both have no-move clauses.
We’ve also seen off-ice allegations don’t matter to NHL GMs. So Panarin can be moved as well, and he’s an elite top line winger.
Things are fluid in the NHL. Perhaps six months ago we are having this conversation with a higher probability of the Rangers waiting for the 2026 free agent class. But they instead landed Miller, a top line center in his own right. Perhaps the move, instead of adding a third 30+ center, is to get a younger center that can grow with Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault, Brett Berard, and Adam Fox. If and when Miller and/or Trocheck fall off a cliff, that younger center can pick up the slack.
There’s a lot of risk in waiting for the 2026 free agent class. Before the JT Miller trade, this was likely the right path for the Rangers. Now it seems they have their 1C, and the goal is–and should be–to get cheaper, younger, and faster. Waiting a season doesn’t do that, and in fact adds more risk to giving the Penguins increased chances of landing Gavin McKenna.
The most logical path forward is to leave the 2026 free agent class as a Plan B. Go out and execute a plan that leverages trade value while it’s still there, a la the Derick Brassard trade, and get younger. This is the time to do it, while other teams are attempting to wait it out until next summer. Risk is good, but capitalizing on others taking that risk is better.
