The series shifts back to Boston as the Celtics host the Magic for Game 5 of the first round series. The Celtics won Game 1 103-86 in Boston on Sunday with a full roster. They won Game 2 109-100 on Wednesday, also in Boston, but without Jayson Tatum. The Magic won Game 3 95-93 in Orlando. The Celtics were without Jrue Holiday and the Magic continued their reckless play, causing another injury when Cole Anthony pulled Jaylen Brown down to the floor causing him to dislocate his finger.
Game 4 was also in Orlando on Sunday. The Celtics were once again without Jrue Holiday. But, unlike in Game 3, the Celtics were able to respond to the Magic’s physicality and with the game tied at 91, with just over 4 minutes to go in the game, the Celtics pulled ahead and won the game 107-98. They were also able to avoid another injury due to the reckless play of the Magic.
The Celtics enter this game up 3 games to 1. In NBA history, 283 teams have had a 3-1 lead in a 7 game series. Of those 283 teams, 270 teams went on to win the series. That,s 95.5% of teams up 3-1 won the series. Only 13 recovered from being down 1-3 and won their series. The Celtics have recovered from a 1-3 deficit to win the series twice.
In 1968 and in 1981 the Celtics came from down 1-3 to beat the 76ers in the Eastern Conference Finals. The last time a team came back from down 1-3 was in 2020 when the Denver Nuggets did it twice. Former Celtics coach Doc Rivers is the only coach to blow 3-1 leads more than once, and he has done it 3 times.
The Celtics have not lost a series that they lead 3-1. They are 31-0 all-time when leading a series 3-1. In those 31 series, they closed out the opponent in 5 games 20 times. It took them 6 games 9 different times twice they won the series in 7 games. The Magic are 0-7 in series that they were down 1-3. They are 0-8 all-time on the road in Game 5’s.
This is the fourth time these two teams have met in the playoffs and the first time since 2010, when the Celtics won the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2. With the loss on Friday, the Celtics have now pulled ahead with 11 playoff wins to 10 for the Magic. The Celtics need to win this series as quickly as possible to avoid more injuries at the hands of the reckless Magic players.
This is an interesting matchup as illustrated by several statistics. The Celtics averaged the 2nd fewest turnovers (11.9) in the regular season while the Magic are 2nd with 16.2 forced turnovers per game. The first game went the Celtics way in this category. The Celtics had just 9 turnovers in the game while the Magic had 15. In Game 2, the Celtics had 10 turnovers to 7 for the Magic. In Game 3, the Celtics had an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers to 14 for the Magic. In Game 4, both teams had 10 turnovers.
The Celtics are first in fewest shooting fouls committed while the Magic draw the 2nd most shooting fouls per 100 possessions. In Game 1, the Celtics were called for 13 fouls for the game while the Magic were called for 17 fouls. In Game 2, the Celtics were called for 19 fouls while the Magic were called for 23. In Game 3, The Celtics were called for 20 fouls while the Magic were called for 23 fouls. After several Celtics complained about the officiating after Game 3, the Celtics were called for 17 fouls in Game 4 to 24 for the Magic. After Game 4, Magic coach Jamahl Mosley complained about the lack of calls for the Magic, so we shall see how Game 5 goes.
The most important statistic is 3 point shooting. The Celtics averaged 48.2 threes per game in the regular season while the Magic limited teams to 31.4 attempted 3’s per game, fewest in the league. In Game 1, the Celtics attempted 37 threes, which is 11 under their season average. They made 18 of those. The Magic took just 27 threes and made just 10. In Game 2, The Celtics once again attempted 37 threes and made 12, while the Magic attempted 29 and made just 7. In Game 3, the Celtics attempted a season low 27 threes and hit just 9 while the Magic attempted 32 threes and hit 8. In Game 4, the Celtics took 31 threes and made 9 while the Magic took 30 threes and hit 8.
Jrue Holiday has missed the past 2 games for the Celtics. They lost Game 3 but won Game 4 without him. At this time, Jaylen Brown is questionable for this game with a right knee posterior impingement. Jrue Holiday will miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain. Jaylen Brown has been questionable for the past 2 games but played in both. I’m guessing that Al Horford will get the start for Holiday and, if Brown can’t play, Sam Hauser will likely get another start.
The Magic have 2 players on the injury list but they have been out long term for them and both will miss the playoffs. Jalen Suggs has been out since March 4 after undergoing successful arthroscopic surgery to remove a cartilage fragment in his left knee. Moritz Wagner has been out since January 9 when he tore the ACL in his left knee. Other than these two, the Magic have a clear injury report. Of course, the Celtics haven’t been playing recklessly and injuring their players either.
Probable Celtics Starters
PG: Derrick White
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Kristaps Porzingis
Celtics Reserves
Payton Pritchard
Neemias Queta
Baylor Scheierman
Jordan Walsh
Luke Kornet
Torrey Craig
Sam Hauser
Xavier Tillman, Sr
JD Davison
2 Way Players
Drew Peterson
Miles Norris
Injuries/Out
Jrue Holiday (hamstring) out
Jaylen Brown (knee) questionable
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Magic Starters
PG: Cory Joseph
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Franz Wagner
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Wendell Carter, Jr
Magic Reserves
Cole Anthony
Goga Bitadze
Anthony Black
Tristan DaSilva
Gary Harris
Caleb Houstan
Jett Howard
Jonathan Isaac
2-Way Players
Mac McClung
Trevelin Queen
Ethan Thompson
Injuries/Out
Moritz Wagner (knee) out
Jalen Suggs (knee) out
Head Coach
Jamahl Mosley
Key Matchups
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Al Horford
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
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Paolo Banchero
Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images
Al Horford vs Paolo Banchero
Banchero averaged 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game in the regular season. He shot 45.2% from the field and 32.0% from beyond the arc. In the first 4 games of the playoffs against the Celtics so far, he is averaging 32 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1 block per game while shooting 44% from the field and 43.5% from beyond the arc. Although, only Banchero and Wagner have been having big games for the Magic, it would be good if they can limit his scoring in this one.
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Jayson Tatum
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
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Franz Wagner
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Jayson Tatum vs Franz Wagner
Wagner averaged 24.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game in the regular season. He shot 46.3% from the field and 29.5% from beyond the arc. In the first 4 games against the Celtics, Wagner is averaging 26 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 44.1% from the field and 21.2% from beyond the arc. Hopefully his struggles from the perimeter will continue in this game.
Honorable Mention
Kristaps Porzingis vs Wendell Carter, Jr
Carter averaged 9.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game in the regular season. He shot 46% from the field and 23.4% from beyond the arc. In the first 4 games of this series, Carter averaged 9.8 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game while shooting 53.3% from the field and 42.9% from beyond the arc. After struggling in the first 3 games, Porzingis had a big game in Game 4. The Celtics need him to play well in this game also.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the key to winning and even more so in the Playoffs. The Celtics are 4th the playoffs with a defensive rating of 105.9 The Magic are 11th in the playoffs with a defensive rating of 114.4. The Celtics scored just 103 points in Game 1 but they held the Magic to just 86 points. In Game 2, the Magic scored 100 points. In Game 3, the Magic scored just 95 points, but held the Celtics to 93. In Game 4, the Celtics held the Magic to 98 points and scored 107. The Magic play very tough defense and so if the Celtics hope to beat them, they need match Orlando’s defensive intensity and to play tough lock down defense themselves.
Rebound – As Pat Riley once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” Much of rebounding is effort and hustle and if the Celtics put the extra effort into grabbing rebounds, it usually translates to the rest of their game. The Celtics out-rebounded the Magic 42-41 in Game 1. In Game 2, the Celtics won the rebounding battle 46-34. In Game 3, the Magic out-rebounded the Celtics 42-39. In Game 4, the Celtics once again won the boards 46-38. The Celtics are 43-7 when tied or out-rebounding their opponents. The Celtics need to out-work the Magic on the boards if they want to win this game.
3 Point Shooting – In the regular season, the Celtics took the most 3’s per game while the Magic allowed the fewest 3’s per game. In the 3 games this season, the Magic held the Celtics to 11.3 fewer 3 point attempts than their average. In Game 1, the Celtics took 37 threes (43.2%) while the Magic took 27 threes (37%) In Game 2, the Celtics took 37 threes (37%) while the Magic took 29 threes (24.2%). In Game 3, the Celtics took just 27 threes (33.3%) while the Magic took 32 threes (25%). In Game 4, the Celtics took 31 threes (29.0%) while the Magic took 30 (26.7%). The Celtics are tough to beat when they make their 3’s and they struggle when the 3’s aren’t falling. Once again, they have to neutralize the Magic’s tough 3 point defense and at the same time play tough defense against the Magic.
Whatever It Takes – If the Magic continue to shut down the 3 point line, the Celtics have to do whatever it takes to score, whether that is driving to the basket,taking midrange shots, or getting to the free throw line. The Celtics had some success in Game 4 with the pick and roll and getting downhill to the basket and so hopefully they can turn to those things again in this game if they struggle from the perimeter again. They also need to beat the Magic on the boards. It’s not a coincidence that the only game they lost the rebounding battle, they also lost the game.
X-Factors
Closeout Game at Home – The Celtics will once again be playing in front of their home crowd and that should give them a boost. Although, there were a lot of Celtics fans in Orlando also. The Magic will have all the distractions of playing on the road, a hostile crowd, and staying in a hotel away from family. Closeout games are the hardest to win as the opponent will be playing their hardest to avoid elimination. The Celtics need to play even harder to protect home court and to end the series as soon as possible. They really don’t want to have to go back to Orlando again.
Injuries – Jayson Tatum has been playing with a severe bone bruise on his elbow. After missing Game 2, he hasn’t seemed to miss a beat in the past 2 games, leading the Celtics to a win in Game 4. Jaylen Brown has been questionable with a bone bruise on his knee for each game but has played in every one. He is once again questionable for this game and hopefully he can play and can be as effective as he has been so far in the series. Jrue Holiday will miss his 3rd game in this series. The Celtics will miss his defense, playmaking and energy and others will need to step up in those areas in his absence.
Officiating – Officiating can always be an X-Factor. The officiating in this series has been much discussed. After Game 3, Jaylen Brown and Joe Mazzulla both called out the officials for not controlling the environment to prevent the reckless play of the Magic. After Game 4, Jamahl Mosley called out the officials for being too lenient with the Celtics. It will be interesting to see how this game is called. No matter how the game is called, the Celtics must adjust and not allow the officiating to take away from their focus.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Tony Brothers – Brothers has been calling games for 29 years and is one of the most controversial refs in the league. Fans from every team groan when they see his name on the game assignments. In an anonymous player survey last season, 28.9% of the players felt that Brothers is one of the best refs. 8.5% of the players named him as one of the worst. His home win/loss record is 34-24. He calls 50.5% of fouls against the home team. The Celtics are 5-2 this year and 10-3 over the past 2 years with Brothers as an official. The Magic are 2-1 this season and 4-4 over the past 2 seasons.
Referee – Mark Lindsay – Lindsay has a home win/loss record of 32-34. He calls 50.4% of fouls against the home team. The Celtics are 6-0 this season and 13-1 over the past 2 seasons with Lindsay calling the games. The Magic are 0-3 this season and 2-6 over the past two seasons with Lindsay.
Umpire – Gedminas Petraitis – Petraitis has a win/loss record of 38-31. He calls 50.8% of fouls against the home team. The Celtics are 6-2 this season and 8-3 over the past two seasons with Petraitis as a ref. The Magic are 5-0 this season and 11-3 over the past 2 seasons with Petraitis.
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