The draft lottery has come and gone, and it was pretty much the worst case scenario for the Rangers. The Islanders, who finished three points behind the Rangers and had the 10th overall spot before the lottery, won the first overall pick. Utah, who had the 14th overall pick, jumped ahead of the Rangers to the 4th overall pick, moving the Blueshirts back to the 12th pick. Now comes the big question: Should the Rangers keep their 2025 1st round pick? Or should they give this pick to the Penguins and keep their 2026 pick?
The 2026 draft class is not a can’t-miss class
Almost immediately, fans jumped to the conclusion that the Rangers absolutely need to give their 2025 1st rounder to Pittsburgh and keep the 2026 pick. There seems to be some delusion that the 2026 first round is can’t miss, similar to the 2003 draft class. That’s just untrue. We simply don’t know if the draft class is better just yet, and most of these assumptions are based on Gavin McKenna. McKenna is worthy of the hype, but the rest of the draft class is not McKenna level.
Moving back was a gut punch, but it shouldn’t lead to rash decisions. Chris Drury is very methodical, so rash decisions from him aren’t a concern. But it was rather amusing to see the immediate reactions regarding whether the Rangers should keep their 2025 1st round pick. Instant reactions because the Islanders won and the Rangers moved back a spot should be taken with a grain of salt.
As an aside, there was a loud group that incorrectly stated if the Rangers didn’t destroy the Islanders 9-2, that the Rangers would have the 1st overall pick. It’s a fun headline for sure, but that’s not how these things work. Pointing to that game when the Rangers won all four against the Islanders is short sighted thinking. It’s a fun headline since the Rangers wrecked them in that game, but it’s objectively false.
Optics of moving the pick are bad
With the “2026 draft class is better” fallacy behind us, we can focus on the question at hand. The 12th overall pick is not a bad pick, and it gives the Rangers options to move up should someone like Jake O’Brien or Brady Martin, two players called out by Will Wright, fall past a certain point in the draft. They can also use this to move back should the opportunity arise.
The issue with the Rangers moving back is the optics. If we knew for certain the Rangers would not be competing next season, then the decision is easy. But they are not, and it complicates matters.
Think of this logically. If the Rangers do not keep their 2025 1st round pick, then they are admitting that next season is going to be worse, and they won’t want to give up that shot at landing McKenna. However all signs are pointing to a quick re-tool and another attempt at competing for a Cup. Whether you like it or not, that’s the plan, and it’s likely the Rangers keep their 2025 1st round pick because of it. Should the plan work, we’d be looking at a late-teens or mid-20s pick, which has far less value than the 12th overall.
If anything, not winning the lottery just means the Rangers won’t have a kid like James Hagens or Michael Misa who can jump right into an NHL lineup. That’s fine, and in all fairness it doesn’t alter their offseason plans too much.
Should the Rangers keep their 2025 1st round pick?
All of this is lining up with a very simple answer regarding whether the Rangers keep their 2025 1st round pick. The state of the Eastern Conference is a mess, and it’s arguable that at least two teams that made the playoffs this year won’t be in the race next year. Whomever the Islanders pick won’t make them a playoff team overnight, and most of the teams in the 80-90 point range won’t improve too much in the offseason, if they do.
The Rangers, who are just one year removed from a President’s Trophy and still have elite talent up front, on the blue line, and in net, are by far the most skilled team in that 80-90 point range. Adding Mike Sullivan as coach doesn’t fix everything, but it should stabilize the defense and give the Rangers a needed jolt.
Sully alone likely adds 4-5 points in the standings just based on defensive, neutral zone, and forechecking structure. While we shouldn’t overstate his impact, we shouldn’t understate it either. It wasn’t really an offense problem last year, save for converting on the powerplay–where they were still a top-three team in generating chances, just couldn’t score. It was defense, and Sully brings defense to his teams.
Honestly, it’s just that simple. I’d expect the Rangers to keep their 2025 1st round pick. It’s unlikely, at least based on their plans, Drury and Sully project the team to be worse. So why give a top-15 pick away when they are (hopefully) going to have a pick in the 20-32 range?
The decision whether the Rangers keep their 2025 1st round pick doesn’t need to be made until 48 hours before the first round. Unless something drastic changes, say the Rangers trading all three of Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Mika Zibanejad, then I wouldn’t expect them to move the pick. In fact, I’d venture a guess they try to move up, but that’s just a guess.
