The big question: what’s next for Boston’s frontcourt

Outside of Jayson Tatum’s injury, the uncertainty of the big man situation is arguably the most noteworthy offseason topic to monitor.

Boston’s top three centers each have a question mark looming over their future with the team. Al Horford and Luke Kornet are unrestricted free agents, and Kristaps Porzingis’ name is lit up on the trade block like an LED bar sign.

There is a nonzero chance that each big man is off the roster by the start of next season. That would leave a hole of over 4,000 center minutes for Boston to fill. It’s certainly a dramatic possibility, but the likelihood is about as high as it is for all three to return.

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Horford, Kornet, and Porzingis: Three Uncertain Paths

Horford could retire, or decide his remaining years would elevate a contender. The latter feels unlikely—not for a lack of ability, but considering his love for the team and the fact that he already got his ring. It’s a much different point in his career compared to when Horford signed with Philly, and moving his family again to a new city for a year or two doesn’t make a lot of sense.

On the subject of retirement, Horford hasn’t committed in either direction. He still has more to give to this game, but with the team’s contending status in flux, it’d be understandable if he saw that as a natural off-ramp.

After an extremely productive season, Kornet should have plenty of suitors in free agency. He has embraced—and been embraced by—Boston, but may have priced himself out of the Celtics’ budget. While the team holds Kornet’s Bird Rights, operating above the second apron restricts their prospects of retaining him.

This is where doubt surrounding Porzingis stems from. His $30M contract taking up 20% of the cap is not sustainable from a team-building standpoint. His size, talent, and skillset make him difficult to replace, but it’s not enough to offset his overall lack of availability.

Moving on from Porzingis while taking back less salary would give the team more flexibility. It could open the door to give one or both of Horford and Kornet new deals that make sense for each side.

At most, Boston may find a way to bring two of the three back. In any case, the team would be left with some big shoes to fill. It’ll be extremely difficult to find the Horford replacement—or a big man of the future—in one offseason.

Internal Options: Queta & Tillman

Aside from Porzingis, Neemias Queta and Xavier Tillman are the only centers signed through the 2025–26 season.

Tillman unfortunately doesn’t feel like an option anymore after a disappointing year. He looked like an interesting low cost play originally, but he logged fewer minutes this season (231) than he did after arriving at the deadline the year prior (274).

Tillman’s lack of playing time can be attributed to a knee injury that has been an issue for some time. Maybe an offseason helps and he’s on the roster for next season, but it feels like that ship has sailed. Queta on the other hand, could be in line for a promotion.

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Queta has been a similar type of reclamation project for Boston as we saw with Kornet. They’ve invested considerable time and resources trying to turn Queta into a player that can survive in Mazzulla’s system. In two years with the team, his minutes and impact have been up and down, but there are encouraging flashes in between.

He appeared in 62 games—one less than Jaylen Brown, the same amount as Jrue Holiday, and more than both Horford and Porzingis. His total playing time was significantly less than all four, but he was prepared to slide into a bigger role when needed.

Queta probably won’t save the center position next year. Becoming a consistent third and occasional second big could be a boost, though—especially while he’s set to make just under $2.4M. Queta is entering his age-26 season, and it wasn’t until 27 when Kornet really started to put it together.

Draft Strategy: A Potential Long-Term Solution?

Another option for the Celtics is to target a center in the draft. This feels likely, regardless of who returns. There are a variety of intriguing bigs that should be available while the Celtics are on the clock.

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Prospects like Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hansen Yang, Maxime Raynaud & Rocco Zikarsky check some of the boxes that Boston is looking for in their bigs. A combination of traits such as size, defensive versatility, floor spacing, rim-rolling and quick processing are important if you want to play under Mazzulla.

Hitting on a center would be another great way to secure production on a cheap deal—one of the keys to successful roster construction in the era of the second apron. Brad Stevens hasn’t been one to make a splash on draft night, but they realistically have the ammo to jump up a few spots if a player they like is on the board. They could also stay put or trade back to accumulate more draft capital without having to reach for someone.

The Trade Market: A Tough Fit for Boston

Bringing back a 5 in a trade would be another possibility. With the goal of most deals being to reduce their spending, Boston is limited in who they can actually pursue. Most of the impact centers are valued accordingly, and bringing back another large contract creates as many problems as it would solve.

While his contract is massive, Porzingis has just one more year left on his deal. His health and recent playoff letdown are hard to ignore, but there is an argument to be made in favor of simply allowing his final year play to out. You’re highly unlikely to find an immediate talent upgrade.

Borrowing an idea from baseball, the Celtics could benefit from trading for an innings eater—a player that can handle a large amount of playing time without any expectation that they’re supposed to be a star.

Final Thoughts: A Position in Flux

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It’s difficult to predict the correct path forward, but most signs point toward a need to remake the center group. It’s easily the most unstable position on the roster, with the fewest short and long-term options.

Securing the center of the future is going to be difficult, and unless a steal is found somewhere this summer, we’re looking at a longer timeline. With that in mind, prioritizing a stopgap makes sense. Boston could need ~3,000 center minutes filled, and it’ll be interesting to see how they approach that.

Whether it’s via the draft, internal growth, or smart cap maneuvering, this offseason will likely determine how the Celtics approach the post-Horford days—and whether they can build a sustainable frontcourt that’s ready to contend.