(Infomercial voice sounds, man flips chair around and stares authoritatively)
So, you want to overreact to the start of the season? We may be able to help you do it right, and do it safely.
It’s perfectly normal to be emotional at the start of any new Celtics season. It’s been a while since anyone played real basketball, and the ring ceremony and the raising of Banner 18 are enough to make anyone tear up. But feeling that Boston is going to go 82-0 after dismantling the reloaded Knicks may be a sign that you need professional help.
And you’ve come to the right place. Here at Overreaction Consultants LLC, we take a data-driven approach to overreactions, and have prepared this premium package for those interested in becoming more than an emotive mess until early December. It’s just four easy payments of $7.99, plus shipping and handling.
In the meantime, please peruse our brochure with the basic dos and don’ts. It should give you a sense of the unmatched quality we provide. Remember, overreacting is nothing to be ashamed of, and we’re always here to help!
1. DON’T assume that any shooting percentage is sustainable until 150 shots
In professional circles, it is considered poor etiquette to get too excited about any shooting percentage before obtaining a 150 shot sample size.
It may be tempting to assume, after Jayson Tatum shot 8 for 11 from three after a summer of questions about if he could even still shoot, that he will in fact shoot over 70 percent from three for the rest of the season. That is not going to happen. If he goes 110 for 150 to start the season from that range, one may have that conversation in intimate groups.
Nor will the Celtics shoot 47 percent from beyond the arc as a team for even another week, let alone the rest of the year. They took 61 threes, and one may start investigating if the Celtics are simply the greatest three-point shooting team of all time (by five whole percent) if they do it three games in a row. Such an assumption at present is tomfoolery.
Thankfully, this goes the other direction as well. Payton Pritchard shot 1-9 from three, which surely will improve as the season progresses. But one must stay vigilant so as to not offend civil society; to maintain self-respect, we recommend this mantra: “
Tatum will miss more shots, and Pritchard will make more. And that’s okay.”
Repeat seven times daily.
2. DO get excited about players performing well that you hoped will perform well
It is unsavory to hop on a bandwagon after it has already started moving, particularly if one has said disparaging things about the player in the past. But so long as one was on the waiting list for the Xavier Tillman bandwagon, they are welcome aboard as soon as he has an outlier 17-point performance.
There is no harm in such excitement, so long as one does not assume this level of production will continue. Optimism is not a crime nor a virtue. It is simply a human necessity, and maintaining belief in the Celtics’ end of the bench players should not be taken as offensive. However, rapidly switching from a diametrically opposite view because of one game has no place in respectable circles. Please consign that content to anonymous message boards.
3. DON’T apply anything you “remember” from the preseason to the actual season
While popular opinion is still mixed, professional research has held for years that the preseason does not matter literally at all.
The NBA preseason is not for the fans nor for respectable analysts like yourself. It is simply for the teams to test lineups, rotations and fringe players to shake off the dust and cut down their lineup. However, no actual basketball information can be plausibly obtained. Once the regular season begins, overreactions must be based entirely on basketball played then or during prior seasons. Nothing may come from summer or early-fall hoops.
“Why is J.D. Davison not playing? He was so good in the preseason…” is an absurd statement, and should not be uttered in any circumstance. The same prohibition goes for Summer League, the Olympics as well as any and all FIBA competitions. Performances at Pro-Ams — such as when Payton Pritchard scored 92 points in Portland — should go without saying.
4. DO revise award and NBA Finals predictions freely
The notion that one must stay committed to preseason predictions — such as declarations that the Celtics will defeat the Nuggets in the NBA Finals, Luka Doncic will win MVP and that De’Aaron Fox will make the All-NBA Third Team — is hogwash. One should feel free to update them liberally.
If Doncic has an inexplicably terrible October, not switching one’s MVP pick is not confidence, but rather foolish intransigence. Intellectual flexibility is the key to a fulfilling life and is necessary to remain in the good graces of society.
There is an emerging literature about a statute of limitations with this concept. Whether one should be allowed to change their MVP pick once it becomes clear that nobody comes close to Doncic’s 37-13-11 stat line is still up for debate. Nevertheless, one should feel free to alter picks whenever they wish, as the NBA is out of all of our control. There is thus no reason to hold people to outdated takes.
5. DON’T presume you are more intelligent than an NBA team
No matter how much it may seem like the Brooklyn Nets are being run by nincompoops, they are not. No NBA team is staffed by idiots, and hundreds of millions of dollars are spent every year to ensure this. Coaches have more information than any fan about the players in their locker room, and general managers are constrained by ownership or are forced to make decisions that the public isn’t even aware of.
Instead of berating a team’s incompetence — seen as relatively tasteless in most circles — try to engage with why you feel that way. Gut reactions are often terse to reality, but can inform all the more sophisticated opinions if correctly situated.
Instead of saying “the Nets are so DUMB for starting Ben Simmons!” ask “why is it that I am so offended by Ben Simmons starting in the 2024 NBA?” Rather than obliterating JJ Redick for starting four power forwards, ask “why might he have made this lineup decision that I feel is so stupid?”
This is not to say fans cannot judge NBA teams’ decisions; they certainly can. But they must do so with a modicum of respect and without relying too much on hindsight. This way, even the most disagreeable parties may find some common ground.
If you are interested in purchasing the full premium bundle — including an Audiobook, online access code, and weekly counseling sessions with one of our trained professionals — please contact [email protected]. We will be happy to speak about pricing options!
