It’s almost that time. The most highly anticipated Final Four in the modern history of the NCAA Tournament is upon us and it’s ripe with storylines.
From a historically great Duke team looking to finish the job, to an all-time great Houston team trying desperately to get its legendary coach his first ring. From an Auburn team that dominated the regular season but suffered an injury scare in the Elite 8, to a Florida team that burst onto the scene this season led by a young head coaching phenom.
Here are the top storylines for each of the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s big dance.
Will Duke Survive The Gauntlet?
All week, we’ve been waxing poetic about how this is the most stacked Final Four we’ve ever seen. And that’s still entirely true, but the reality of the situation is that Duke is entering San Antonio as a substantial favorite to cut down the nets. Caesars Sportsbook currently has the Blue Devils as a -110 favorite. The next closest team? Florida at +300, followed by Houston at +450 and Auburn at +550.
Vegas has certainly picked a side this weekend. I’d caution betting the house on it, though.
Saturday’s matchup against Houston won’t just be a test of coach Jon Scheyer and his star Cooper Flagg’s will. It will be a soul-torturing exercise, a war, against a program that has only been eclipsed by UConn in terms of consistent accomplishments within the last five seasons.
This isn’t just your typical great Kelvin Sampson-led Houston team either. It’s the best since Phi Slamma Jama. Hell, I mentioned in a previous article that the Cougars have a higher KenPom rating than 26 of the last 28 national champions, only being eclipsed by 2001 Duke and 2024 UConn. Duke’s metrics are even better, of course, but this won’t be a walk in the park like UConn had in the Final Four and title game last season.
If Duke survives Houston, the Blue Devils will be met with either the SEC regular-season champion in Auburn or the SEC tournament champion in Florida in the National Championship game. Duke did beat Auburn 84-78 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in November. You know what they say about beating a great team twice, though.
Can Kelvin Sampson Finally Make The Title Game?
When I said in the previous section that this Houston team was the best since Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler’s Phi Slamma Jama in 1983 and 1984, I meant it.
This year’s Houston group combined the postseason prowess of the 2021 team that made the Final Four with the regular-season dominance we saw fade in the 2023 and 2024 Sweet 16s. For a program that’s set the benchmark for defensive efficiency in the last decade, this is the best defensive team Sampson has put together in his decade-long stint leading the Cougars.
Sampson, in turn, will be coaching in his third career Final Four and his second with Houston. It feels like this season is the best chance he’s ever had to cut down the nets, even with a historically great Duke team in the fold.
Sampson’s first trip to the Final Four was with Oklahoma in 2002, but dominant Maryland and Kansas teams entered that weekend as heavy favorites. The 2021 trip didn’t end up so well, as eventual national champion Baylor took them to the woodshed after Houston ran through a chaotic Midwest Region.
Will Johni Broome’s Health Play A Factor For Auburn?
You could hear a pin drop at State Farm Arena in Atlanta when Auburn’s Johni Broome went down in a heap midway through the second-half of the Tigers Elite 8 win over Michigan State. Reality got even more sobering when the CBS broadcast caught him mouthing the words “I’m done” to a teammate before gingerly making his way into the locker room.
A few minutes later, before Auburn fans could even settle the concerned nausea in their stomachs, Broome emerged from the locker room in Klay Thompson-esque fashion to help push Auburn across the finish line. One could have wondered whether Broome’s return was even necessary, though. Michigan State didn’t gain any ground while Broome was in the locker room, so his reentrance in the game was effectively a dagger through Sparty’s shining armor.
Broome’s health isn’t anticipated to be too much of a factor this weekend, at least according the man himself.
Are Todd Golden and The Gators Ready For The Test?
Florida coach Todd Golden enters the Alamodome this weekend as the most unproven coach left in the field. The 39-year-old Golden had never won an NCAA Tournament game in his first five seasons as a head coach, losing in the 2021 Round of 64 with San Francisco as well as the 2024 Round of 64 in his first tournament appearance with Florida.
Florida’s run so far through the tournament should have put any Golden doubters to rest. The Gators earned an impressive win in the Round of 32 over two-time defending champion UConn and the self-proclaimed best coach in the sport, Dan Hurley. They followed that with a dominant Sweet 16 win over Maryland before pulling off an improbable nine-point comeback in the final minutes of their Elite 8 win over Texas Tech.
With two powerhouse coaches remaining in Kelvin Sampson and Bruce Pearl, as well as wunderkind Jon Scheyer, it makes sense why Golden is the quiet factor heading into this weekend. With an NBA-level talent like Walter Clayton Jr. leading a roster that also features previous Final Four experience in Alijah Martin, it might be Golden and the Gators on the ladders Monday night
