Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Herro is averaging a career-high 24.2 points per game this season. He’s play-making better than ever, putting up a career-best 5.2 assists nightly. And his shooting accuracy has been outrageously efficient, with Herro converting a career-high rate from the field (48.6 percent shooting) and from three (45.2 percent from three, the No. 4 mark in the NBA among players with at least 80 three-point attempts this season).
As a result, Herro is beloved by advanced analytics this year for seemingly the first time in his career, with the 6-foot-5 guard ranking 20th league-wide in Value Over Replacement Player (ahead of the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker, some of his toughest counterparts at the position), 23rd in Box Plus/Minus (one spot behind Luka Doncic) and 37th in Win Shares per 48 Minutes (one spot ahead of Lillard, the player he was almost traded for) in a metric that usually favors the contributions of big men. (For proof, just note that as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, Dallas Mavericks center Daniel Gafford ranks second in that stat. Second overall in the entire NBA, that is.)
And in our own Global Rating metric, Herro also ranks among the Top 30 players in the league this season, just trailing Team USA gold medalist Derrick White and the Sacramento Kings’ do-everything center Domantas Sabonis.
Herro’s excellent placing in various advanced metrics doesn’t just have to do with the accuracy of his shot-making – which has been extremely impressive this year, especially considering Herro is forced to take a bundle of difficult shots nightly – but also with where he is deciding to take his shot attempts from.
This season, 14.1 percent of Herro’s shot attempts have come from within three feet of the basket, the second-highest clip of his career. Even more importantly, just 5.9 percent of his field-goal attempts have from within 10 to 16 feet from the basket, the lowest rate of his career, and an even more minuscule 1.4 percent have come from 16 feet from the basket to the three-point line, likewise the lowest total from his time in the NBA.
That means Herro is now neglecting the least efficient shot in basketball, the long two, in favor of three-pointers and, to a lesser extent, shots near the rim. (It’s probably a good thing Herro’s shooting 57.3 of his shots from beyond the arc, the highest total of his career, as opposed to 14.1 percent of his shots coming from near the rim considering he’s an excellent three-point shooter and an average-at-best finisher around the basket. Herro is converting on just 51.9 percent of his shot attempts from within five feet of the basket this year.)
