On Friday, November 15th, Anthony Davis looked like an MVP candidate. In a much-hyped battle against rising superstar Victor Wembanyama, Davis outclassed, outmuscled, and outplayed the Spurs big en route to 40 points and 12 rebounds. Matching Wemby with two blocks, Davis even showed the youngster first-hand why he deserved DPOY consideration at the time, too:
Just weeks later, on Wednesday, December 4th, Anthony Davis looked like one of the worst players in the league. Despite playing 31 minutes, Davis put up a paltry eight points on 3-for-14 shooting, and the Lakers were outscored by 29 in his minutes. The film was even worse. Davis looked slow and disinterested, routinely getting beat off the dribble by Jimmy Butler, who was already looking around for a Miami exit ramp, and a hungrier Bam Adebayo:
Herein lies just one example of the plight of modern NBA superstars. As the focal point of every defensive game plan, stars are expected to carry a bone-crushing, tendon-bruising offensive burden night in and night out. At the same time, teams routinely target them defensively to try and tucker them out. Every triumph is celebrated, every failure put under the microscope. And when you set the bar high, there’s a lot of room to fall short.
HoopsHype’s resident stat expert, Alberto De Roa, has devised a methodology to look at the players with the biggest gap between their ceiling and floor. Using their Global Rating score, which factors in box-score stats as well as the quality of a player’s team and its competition, HoopsHype looked at each player’s top 25 percent of games played (their “ceiling” games) and the bottom 25 percent (their “floor” games). They then divided that difference by the ceiling games to normalize for outsized performers.
Important note: this isn’t technically a measure of true “inconsistency,” which would look at the standard deviations of individual game Global Ratings. Instead, consider this a list of the players whose best and worst games are furthest apart.
There are a few reasons someone could make this list, and it’s not necessarily a bad thing. As you’ll see, several players on here are primarily jump shooters. By nature, jumper-dependent players will be prone to hot and cold shooting nights. Catch them at the right time, they’ll look like worldbeaters; other days, they’ll be bricklayers. A limitation of a box-score-based metric is that it can’t always capture the little things that go into making stars, you know, stars: the defensive attention garnered, for example.
Injuries, changes in team role, and more can all impact how a player performs over a season, too.
49 players played at least half the season and had a ceiling-game rating of 30.0, which is the barometer for a star. Using HoopsHype’s methodology, here are the 10 players from that cohort with the biggest differential-to-ceiling spread.
David Banks-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling Global Rating (GR): 33.6
Average Floor GR: 5.7
Diff / Ceiling: 83.1%
Despite the addition of Josh Giddey to the Bulls’ lineup, White had yet another improved season, topping 20 points per game for the first time in his career.
White’s inclusion on this list is partially due to his play style, which involves a heavy diet of difficult threes, and partially due to a change in usage after the trade of Zach LaVine.
To wit: in 35 games with LaVine, White averaged just 17.9 points on 59% true shooting. Many of his floor games occurred in this time period. In 39 games without LaVine, White averaged 22.6 points on 61% true shooting, the rare increase in volume and efficiency. White especially took off after the Bulls traded LaVine, which clarified his role on the team and allowed him to soak up usage and points. White had two 30-plus point games before the trade, but exploded for seven after, including three in a row in late March when the Bulls made their massive late-season run.
Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 33.6
Average Floor GR: 5.9
Diff / Ceiling: 82.6%
Pritchard is an undersized gunner and the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. He’s the exact archetype of player I’d expect to populate a list like this.
When Pritchard is on, he’s one of the league’s best scorers. Not many 6-foot-1 guards can drop 43 points against a solid defense, as Pritchard did against Portland. Pritchard hunts threes with the dead-eyed tunnel vision of a reef shark looking for dinner:
But players that size, who are so reliant upon an outside jumper, can be situational. Pritchard had nights where he couldn’t crack 20 minutes, and his game logs are littered with a handful of single-digit-scoring games with few or no assists to prop him up.
The Celtics’ depth does him no favors here, either. Most teams couldn’t afford to keep Pritchard on the bench; in Boston, he rarely closes over Jrue Holiday.
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 33.5
Average Floor GR: 6.2
Diff / Ceiling: 81.5%
Green is probably the poster child for this sort of analysis. With freaky athleticism and a pure-looking jumper, Green has moments where he looks like a future All-NBAer.
Unfortunately, that jumper is pure candy – pretty on the outside but lacking in nutritional value. He had multiple months shooting worse than 40% from the field.
It’s not all his fault. Houston’s horrific spacing means that the lane is too often closed for him, limiting both his at-rim attempts and his free throws, which can stabilize Global Rating game-to-game. But he also doesn’t do enough passing, rebounding, or defensive work to steady his box-score numbers.
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 34.9
Average Floor GR: 6.7
Diff / Ceiling: 80.8%
Truthfully, I find Anunoby’s inclusion on this list offensive and a mark against Tom Thibodeau’s offensive system. For most of the year, Anunoby was essentially limited to a 3-and-D-and-transition role, with few opportunities to flex his post-up or dribble-drive game as he sat waiting for Jalen Brunson to occasionally pass him the ball.
But Anunoby exploded in Brunson’s late-season injury absence. Like White, Anunoby took up the offensive slack in his teammate’s absence and then some. He dropped 23.1 points per game without Brunson compared to just 16.6 with him while also improving his efficiency. Anunoby flexed far more on-ball chops than we’d seen from previously, and even took Brunson’s role in a few of New York’s pet actions:
Brunson should always be the focal point of the offense, of course, but there has to be room to take advantage of the latent talents of a player as good as Anunoby.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 34.5
Average Floor GR: 7.3
Diff / Ceiling: 78.8%
Like Pritchard and Green, Powell is another perimeter-focused guard who can live or die by the three. But Paul George’s absence gave Powell the most significant role of his career, and he responded with his best season ever. If he’d played just a few more games, he’d have been a strong contender for Most Improved Player.
Powell was legitimately in the running for a fringe All-Star spot, too. His ceiling games were tremendous. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury bothered him down the stretch, limiting both his minutes and his effectiveness after his return.
Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 42.0
Average Floor GR: 9.3
Diff / Ceiling: 77.9%
It’s hard to remember now, as Haliburton looks like a Top 5 offensive fulcrum while stabbing buzzer-beating daggers into the backs of contenders, but Haliburton really struggled to begin the season as he dealt with various soft-tissue injuries.
Haliburton had no explosion for a large chunk of the year, limiting both his ability to get to the rim and create separation for his deadly three-pointer. Relatedly, Haliburton also struggled to assert himself, occasionally playing too passively.
But Haliburton gradually got right as the season went on, and Cleveland and Milwaukee fans sure haven’t noticed a problem with him. Where Haliburton was once being locked up by deep-bench players, now he’s blowing past former DPOYs for series-winning layups:
Yeah, I think he’s alright.
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 37.9
Average Floor GR: 8.9
Diff / Ceiling: 76.6%
Maxey is a somewhat unique player here. Like with the other combo guards on this list, hot nights can propel Maxey to absurd heights, while cold ones can keep him groundbound.
Maxey only played 52 games this year, struggling with a variety of injuries. He also had arguably the most role fluctuation of anyone on this list on a night-to-night basis, as he had to constantly adjust to the Philadelphia 76ers’ endless array of ailments. On rare nights when everyone was healthy, Maxey was third in the pecking order behind Joel Embiid and Paul George. Other nights, Maxey might’ve been the only NBA-caliber Sixer on the floor at times.
Few players experienced a more tumultuous season, so it’s hard to blame Maxey for not being a model of consistency.
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Average Ceiling GR: 40.9
Average Floor GR: 9.6
Diff / Ceiling: 76.4%
Banchero’s appearance here surprised me initially, but perhaps it shouldn’t have. Like with Jalen Green, Banchero had to play basketball in a phone booth thanks to his vision-impaired teammates. He’s at his best rampaging to the rim and playing point forward, but a somewhat awkward pairing with Franz Wagner and the lack of shooting on the roster left him pulling up for too many midrange jumpers.
A torn pectoral muscle completely changed his season. Banchero dropped 30 points thrice in his first five games, including a 50-burger. However, he struggled shooting the ball for a while after his return, even posting two single-digit scoring games.
Banchero’s rebounding also vacillated wildly depending on his role, creating Global Rating fluctuations. He amassed zero boards in 31 minutes against Sacramento (a game the Magic won, to be fair), but also nabbed as many as 18 in a late-season win over Washington.
David Berding/Getty Images
Average Ceiling GR: 41.4
Average Floor GR: 10.4
Diff / Ceiling: 75.0%
By now, you know why Curry is on the list; it’s a hazard of being a jumper-focused player.
Nobody takes more difficult shots than Curry, and while nobody is better at making them, there were nights when he had issues, most notably a two-point, three-rebound, one-assist effort in a horrific 51-point loss in December to Memphis.
Curry’s highs are dazzling; to look at him can sear the eyes. But the Warriors scuffled for a long stretch of the year, and a big part of that was Curry’s (relative) struggles.
Still, with the Warriors up 1-0 in the second round and flying high after injecting Jimmy Butler right into their veins, those dark days feel long ago.
Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
Average Ceiling GR: 46.3
Average Floor GR: 11.6
Diff / Ceiling: 75.0%
We’ve talked about Davis above, and his inclusion on the list shouldn’t be a huge shock. Although Davis is unquestionably a true-blue superstar, few players seem to vacillate in effectiveness and effort as much on a night-to-night basis.
Davis’ offensive contributions can vary wildly, but unlike many of the players on this list, it’s not because he’s a jump-shooter. More than 62% of his buckets are assisted, a low number for a big but a high number for a primary option. He’s not as capable of initiating his own offense as a guard, leaving him vulnerable to being frozen out at times.
Davis is also constantly banged up, and as you’ve undoubtedly noticed, injuries are a big part of players consistently not playing up to their potential.
For more from Mike Shearer, check out Basketball Poetry, where he writes about the greatest league on Earth semi-weekly.
