The NBA offseason is in full swing now that free agency opened up on Monday at 6 p.m. ET. If this NBA season showed us anything, it’s that you should expect the unexpected when it comes to the script that a given season follows, especially in this era of apron-induced parity.
Making predictions for next season at this point in the summer is difficult enough as it is. With the various devastating injuries suffered by key superstars in the closing months of the season and the playoffs, it’s even more of a roll of the dice than usual. Regardless, I’m going to give my best crack at it and we’ll check back a year from now and see how I did.
2026 NBA Finals: Thunder def. Cavaliers 4-2
Western Conference Forecast
The NBA’s run of seven consecutive seasons with a new title winner will come to an end next season. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who seemingly didn’t answer all of their critics despite winning their first Larry O’Brien trophy, will leave little to no doubt about who the model franchise in the NBA is after tearing through the league…again.
This is a team that could win 70 regular-season games if it locks in, but the Thunder are also the best-equipped team in the Western Conference for a playoff series, regardless of how hard they push themselves during the regular season.
Eastern Conference Forecast
On the Cleveland Cavaliers’ front, I may be crazy on this one, but I really do believe that they would have beaten the Indiana Pacers if they entered that series with Darius Garland fully healthy. Not to mention, Indiana was basically handed a 2-0 series lead after Evan Mobley missed Game 2 after suffering a sprained ankle in the opener.
The Cavaliers won 64 games this past season while being widely regarded by opposing coaches and players as the toughest team to play in the entire league. They’ll be returning essentially the same roster and coaching staff, and they’ll have a massive chip on their shoulder after what was, in reality, a relatively fluky loss to Indiana despite the series ending in five games. Plus, no Tyrese Haliburton or Jayson Tatum lurking in the Eastern Conference next season should open things up in the Eastern Conference.
Sleeper threat: I didn’t have the gall to make this my official prediction, as their current 7-to-1 2026 championship odds are even more daunting than the historic preseason odds the Indiana Pacers faced ahead of their run to the NBA Finals this season. However, no team in the NBA showed as much improvement in 2024-25 as the Detroit Pistons, and with a budding MVP candidate in Cade Cunningham, I’m expecting at least 50 wins for this team this season. I don’t love their chances against Cleveland in a playoff series, but we saw how the bracket opened up this year and I believe this Pistons team could play the role that the Pacers played this spring. We’ll see what happens with the Malik Beasley situation as well, as he is one of the league’s top 3-point threats and may not be back with any team next season.
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo finished third in the MVP voting this past season behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, and I have a feeling that voter fatigue may hit Gilgeous-Alexander’s campaign for his second straight sooner than it hits some of his other contemporaries.
This season actually sets up pretty nicely for a Giannis MVP campaign, as the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be without Damian Lillard for at least the majority of the season. Their roster isn’t exactly the ‘96 Bulls to begin with, which will allow Giannis to put up monster numbers that will plant him squarely in contention with Jokic for the award.
Media covering the league has kind of woken up a bit to the fact that Giannis has maybe even been somewhat underrated these last few seasons due to Milwaukee’s shortcomings in the playoffs. If Giannis were to carry Milwaukee to a respectable record while putting up those monster numbers, I suspect he’ll be in a better position to receive the nod from those who vote for the award.
Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
I don’t need to go too in-depth here, but the Dallas Mavericks are going to be a legitimate force in the Western Conference next season if everything goes to plan and Cooper Flagg will be playing a sizeable role in that. Sans Magic Johnson in 1980, none of Flagg’s fellow generational prospects throughout NBA history were going to a situation like the one he is, where he’ll be able to receive direct mentorship from future first ballot Hall of Famers in Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson. Other rookies may be in situations where they’ll see more shots, but none of them are going to affect winning in the way that Flagg will during his maiden NBA voyage.
Most Improved Player: Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
With Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury likely costing him the entirety of the 2025-26 season, that presents an unfortunate but perfect opportunity for guard Andrew Nembhard to increase his averages markedly while exhibiting the captivating playmaking and shooting ability that put his name on the map during the Pacers’ playoff run. Nembhard is already going to be a player with more eyeballs on him next season because of his performance this spring, and I’m relatively sure that he’s going to perform at a level that keeps Indiana firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt. If he does, he’s an obvious candidate for Most Improved Player.
Coach of the Year: J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons
I mentioned the reasons why I love Detroit as a potential NBA championship sleeper this year. If the Pistons improve their 44-48 record from 2024-25 to the degree that I believe they’re capable of, they’ll not only rise as a formidable threat in the Eastern Conference but J.B. Bickerstaff will be earning his first Coach of the Year award. However, if the Thunder improve their record by two games this season and reach the ever-so-rare 70-win plateau, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Daigneault earn the award for the second time in three seasons.
