Indiana will look for a season sweep when it hosts Penn State tonight at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Penn State is 15-13 overall and 5-12 in Big Ten play.
Tonight’s game will tip at 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN:
Indiana’s NCAA tournament hopes are alive following Sunday’s win against Purdue. But the Hoosiers have work to do over their final four regular season games.
Up first is a rematch against Penn State, which has won two in a row after a seven-game losing streak. Indiana won the first matchup 77-71 on Jan. 5 at the Palestra in Philadelphia.
THE FIRST MEETING
Indiana’s early second-half run was crucial in its win against the Nittany Lions last month. At halftime, Indiana and Penn State were tied at 29, but the Hoosiers went on a 12-0 run out of the locker room.
Sophomore Mackenzie Mgbako was pivotal in that stretch as he scored eight points in just over a minute, forcing Mike Rhoades to use a timeout. But the break failed to flip the momentum as the Hoosiers needed less than three minutes to push the lead to double figures and take control at one of the nation’s most historic venues.
Fifth-year senior Oumar Ballo was also pivotal in the win, as the Nittany Lions had no answer for him in the post. Ballo finished with 25 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and two blocked shots despite battling foul trouble.
Indiana also handled Penn State’s pressure defense, which ranks third in the conference in forcing turnovers. Entering the game in early January, the Nittany Lions had been forcing 17 turnovers per game. Indiana committed only 14 in the win.
The win at the Palestra also featured one of IU’s better perimeter shooting performances this season. After an underwhelming 2-for-11 mark in the first half, the Hoosiers shot 7-for-12 in the second half to finish 9-for-23 for the game. Mgbako made four 3-pointers and Luke Goode went 3-for-5.
Penn State, meanwhile, was dreadful from the perimeter. The Nittany Lions went 3-for-21 on 3s, a major reason Penn State managed just 1.01 points per possession despite shooting 61.9 percent on 2s.
Guard Ace Baldwin struggled in the Penn State loss, finishing with 12 points on 5-for-15 shooting. Baldwin dished out seven assists but committed three turnovers as foul issues limited his minutes to 31. Over his last three games, Baldwin has 23 assists and 14 steals.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
(All stats in the chart above are from conference games only and are updated through Monday.)
The keys for success against Penn State are clear: take care of the ball and keep the Nittany Lions off the foul line.
Penn State ranks third in the conference in defensive turnover percentage (18.5) and first in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 39.2 percent. The Nittany Lions found success at the Palestra attacking Indiana off the dribble, particularly in the second half.
The Nittany Lions are one of the Big Ten’s worst rebounding teams, ranking 16th in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage and 15th in defensive rebounding percentage. They also struggle to defend in the paint, as conference foes shoot 55.1 percent on 2s, which ranks 15th in the conference.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
KenPom projects a five-point Indiana victory with a 70 percent chance of the Hoosiers winning. Bart Torvik’s ratings favor IU by six with a 71 percent chance of a victory.
This game is important for both teams for different reasons. Once 12-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, Penn State is currently on the outside looking in for the Big Ten tournament. With the new 15-team format this season, three teams stay home, and right now, the Nittany Lions would be one of those teams.
Indiana likely needs to go 3-1 over its final four games to have a realistic shot to make the NCAA tournament field. The Hoosiers are unbeaten in Quad 2, 3 and 4 games and tonight’s game is a Quad 2 contest.
While the 2024-25 season has been disappointing, Indiana can still end the Mike Woodson era on a high note by reaching the NCAA tournament. The Hoosiers have been playing better lately but must come out with the same energy and focus displayed in the second half of Sunday’s win against Purdue.
(Photo credit: IU Athletics)
Category: Commentary
Filed to: Penn State Nittany Lions
