The K’Andre Miller trade has become the highlight and focal point of the offseason. Not just for the Rangers, but for the NHL in the non-Mitch Marner discussion. The narrative is the Rangers “gave up” on a 25 year old defenseman who was clearly their best skater on the blue line to add Vlad Gavrikov, a 29 year old defenseman who isn’t as mobile. Not just that, but the return has been called into question, depending on who you ask. But the K’Andre Miller trade had to happen for many reasons.
K’Andre Miller trade was about more than Vlad Gavrikov
On the surface, it’s easy to say the Rangers simply exchanged K’Andre Miller for Vlad Gavrikov. Miller’s cap hit–which is more than Gavrikov’s–was essentially replaced by the $7 million for Gavrikov. It’s clear he took a discount to come to New York. That’s certainly something that should not be ignored. Though to find the reasoning, a deeper dive is needed.
If the rumors are to be believed, then the K’Andre Miller trade was also about contract terms. The Rangers weren’t willing to go that high for Miller, even with his upside. Chris Drury preferred a short term deal to keep the dollars lower. Given Miller’s inconsistencies, it was essentially a show me situation. Miller’s 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 seasons were statistically his best, both in counting stats and in overall play.
But the cracks in the development path started to show, as Miller was very inconsistent in the 2024 playoffs. He was miscast as a shutdown defender, playing with equally miscast Jacob Trouba on a shutdown pair that just couldn’t get the job done. Add in the distractions during the 2024-2025 season, and Miller’s head appeared to be elsewhere. His giveaways wound up in the back of the net far too often, overshadowing his otherwise fine play in all three zones. Giveaways and goals against are hard to ignore.
The Rangers wanted to get more consistent defensively, something they simply couldn’t bank on with Miller. The Mike Sullivan factor does matter, but sometimes you need to go with what you know. Miller wasn’t consistent enough to warrant a long term deal, Gavrikov was surprisingly cheaper on a long term deal, and Miller wanted to test free agency if he stayed with the Rangers. Sometimes, it’s just that simple.
But there’s more to the K’Andre Miller than simple contract disputes and inconsistent play.
Pruning the pipeline
Another part of the K’Andre Miller trade, which should be factored in along with the contract discussion, is who the Rangers have in the prospect pipeline. Drew Fortescue and EJ Emery, both left handed defensemen, and both seem poised to make a run at an NHL job in the next 2-3 years. While that may not matter in the short term, committing 7 years and big money to an undeniable question mark in Miller without knowing if he can be that 1LD was a big risk.
Let’s play out the situation where the K’Andre Miller trade doesn’t happen, and the Rangers sign him to his current contract, carrying a $7.5 million cap hit. The best case scenario is he makes major strides under Sullivan and becomes a 1B to Adam Fox’s 1A, giving the Rangers a Leetch-Zubov combination.
But the more likely scenario is Miller developing into a solid 2LD that skates well and moves the puck well, but is somewhat inconsistent on defense. Spending 1LD money on a 2LD is a problem, but when both Emery and Fortescue are ready, they will need those 2LD/3LD minutes initially. Thus shifting Miller up in the lineup in a role that he yet again may be miscast.
Emery and Fortescue were likely in the discussion before the Rangers came to the decision that they needed a K’Andre Miller trade. Given their lack of right handed defensemen in the pipeline, acquiring Scott Morrow in the K’Andre Miller trade was certainly targeted as well.
So where do they go from here?
As mentioned the other day, it looks like Braden Schneider will be tried at LD as a stopgap. This does assume a lot about Morrow and his ability to make the team, and it’s not set in stone. I’d expect this season to see Schneider rotate between 2LD and 3RD, depending on whether it’s Morrow or Urho Vaakanainen in the lineup on that particular night. Another option is to keep Schneider at 2LD and have Vaakanainen also play his off-side as 3RD when he’s in.
In the future, Schneider is likely shifted to 2RD when Emery and Fortescue are ready. That would give the Rangers Gavrikov, Emery, and Fortescue on the left and Fox, Schneider, and Will Borgen on the right in 2-3 years. That’s a solid combination of skill, skating, overall defensive play, and potential. But it’s a few years away.
In the end, the K’Andre Miller trade was a necessity. His cap space was used on a player that better fit the team’s current need as a 1LD who was defensively steady. Miller wasn’t that, Gavrikov is. In the medium/long term, Gavrikov provides a safety net on LD as (hopefully) Emery and Fortescue transition to NHL play. As Gavrikov declines, Emery is the most likely candidate to flip to 1LD in that solid defensive 1LD role.
There’s a plan here with the K’Andre Miller trade, but it requires viewing the forest, not the trees.
